US leading economic indicators are🚨still deteriorating: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic inds is down to 0.85🚨-lowest level since 2008.
The LEI tracks fwd-looking data, incl consumer expecs, MFG orders, wkly hrs, +initial jobless claims.
The CEI measures current economic conds in RT, eg nonfarm payrolls.
Historically, in every case where this ratio has declined as sharply as it has now, the #economy is in a #recession.
Non-asset owners: struggling."
-Kobeissi L
#TrumpLies
#USPol
Job searching is fucking hell. It feels almost impossible to find work at all. Even getting a minimum wage job is pretty tough. You got to be lucky to be find that opportunity.
https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-tough-for-every-generation-layoffs-great-flattening-careers-2025-6
#terriblejobmarket
#jobhuntinghell
#hrmess
#jobmarket
#recession
No jobs report from BLS today (delayed until Dec. 16), but before the shutdown, the pre-Trump / post-Trump comparison in BLS data was very close to pre-Trump / post-Trump comparison in the ADP data.
This week, we got the latest jobs data comparison from ADP, through November:
Consumer spending stalled in September as #inflation continues to rise, orchestrated shutdown-delayed report shows
US consumer spending increased only marginally in September, suggesting a loss of momentum in the #economy at the end of the third quarter as a lackluster #labor market & rising cost of living curbed demand.
#Trump #tariffs #unemployment #affordability #CostOfLiving #recession #trumpcession
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-spending-moderates-september-2025-12-05/?utm_source=braze&utm_medium=notifications&utm_campaign=2025_engagement
"US employers made🚨71,321 new layoff announcements in Nov, officially bringing the 2025 total up to🚨 1.17M #layoffs.
This now marks the🚨FIRST year with 1.1+M job cuts since the pandemic lockdowns in 2020.
🚨American #consumers are in trouble."
-Kobeissi L
"Labor market signals are getting softer.
• Challenger, Gray & Christmas: layoffs eased from Oct’s surge but still the highest for any Nov in 3 years
• YTD hiring plans🚨are the lowest since 2010."
-T Trading
#Economy #Recession #Jobs #USPol
📌The #economy is REALLY bad. Like way worse than we think. I call it a #depression not a #recession. I'm going into *highly protective* mode. Things will get better after the midterm elections, but, right now unemployment is off-the-map 😢
I bought my DREAM HOUSE and it turned into a NIGHTMARE.
ADP Jobs Report:
Private-sector job growth has collapsed under Trump.
His first 10 months have been a disaster for the labor market.
Private employers cut 32k #jobs in November, acc/to the payroll processing company #ADP. Economists are closely watching the company’s data because numbers from the Bureau of #Labor Statistics [#BLS] have been delayed [& are unreliable] by the federal govt shutdown, which ended last month but is continuing to have lingering effects on the nation’s economic stats.
#Trump #economy #inflation #tariffs #recession #unemployment #affordability #CostOfLiving #trumpcession
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12/03/us/trump-news/d59c4e1b-0ff9-5512-a6b4-fd0adf144637?smid=url-share
"ADP unemp report shows🚨-32,000 #jobs lost in Nov (worst since Mar 2023).
Most INDs🚨were doing layoffs. The only ones still are hiring are hospitality & healthcare.
But look at employment by firm size. There's a K-shaped #economy among firms, too. Larger companies are still hiring.🚨Smaller firms (<50 wkrs) are doing the layoffs.🚨It's been a very tough year for small biz due to #tariffs & more selective spending from lower & middle-class #consumers."
-H Long
#Recession #Unemployment #USPol
Looks like we've reached the "termination tips from Howard Levitt" stage of recession.
That first bit is a real banger.
In the dot-com boom people were taking two semesters of Computer Science and dropping out of college to take jobs paying $140K in 2025 dollars ($70K in 1998) it was a true boom. People felt great about the #economy.
Compare to today we're getting a jobless #aibubble that's only a boom in the stock market and in people building out data centers. People think the economy stinks.
Hell, manufacturing, half the states, and anyone earning less than $100K are already in #recession.
https://www.gulfchannels.com/342315/ المركز الإحصائي الخليجي يستعرض أبرز المؤشرات الاقتصادية في الإمارات #AE #Currency #Exchange #Inflation #news #Recession #UnitedArabEmirates #USDollar #أبرز #الإماراتالعربيةالمتحدة #الإحصائي #الاقتصادية #الامارات #الخليجي #المركز #المؤشرات #يستعرض
“My kids don’t even lie that often.”
-J Wolfers
The economist clarified Trump’s stk mkt brags, ack: US stocks are up but “they’re up even more everywhere else.”
It's "quite striking just how bad”🚨consumer confidence is now -#consumers say: they’re feeling worse than they were during the Great Recess/pandemic/early ’80s #recession.”
Trump has🚨“fundamentally lost the battle of ideas” on the #economy & a “deep Q as to how long ppl are going to keep spending."
#Lies #UPol
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/justin-wolfers-donald-trump-economy_n_692d3e45e4b0c8c3c7ce2e99
This weekend the White House sent Kevin Hassett out the make the rounds of the networks touting Trump's economy and again he's telling us gas is below $2 a gallon in some states (national average is $3.06 a gallon).
I checked the AAA gas prices and as of today there cheapest gas in the country is $2.567 in Mississippi.
Also another interesting tidbit, 22 states are in a #Recession maybe more but the government is not releasing actual economic figures.
#TrumpEconomics
Ominous:🚨Buy Now, Pay Later (schemes) surged this Black Fri, rising 9%, with adoption esp strong for younger consumers: 41% of shoppers aged 16–24 used #BNPL.
-Reuters
For the Nov-Dec holiday season -NRF estimates that US shoppers will spend >$1T for the 1st time this year. But: rate of growth: slowing -w an anticipated⬆️of 3.7%-4.2% YoY, comp to 4.3% for last yr.
Credit card debt & delinquencies on other ST loans have been rising.
#Economy #Recession #Inflation #USPol
https://www.wtrf.com/news/business/ap-business/ap-why-cyber-monday-could-break-spending-records-despite-economic-uncertainty/
A very clear slowdown in China
https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/12/a-very-clear-slowdown-in-china.html
China's manufacturing PMI heads south
https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/12/chinas-manufacturing-pmi-heads-south.html
It’s no secret that Americans are frustrated by the economy: Consumer sentiment has fallen for four straight months to one of its lowest levels on record, according to a closely watched metric from the University of Michigan.
#economics #macroeconomics #Trumpism #recession #depression #collapse #crash
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/27/economy-consumer-sentiment-charts/
“I have just been flabbergasted that market measures of volatility have been so low up until recently,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University. Market valuations are not accurately reflecting risks, he said.
#markets #macroeconomics #trade #depression #recession #collapse #economics #cryptocurrency
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/business/economy/stocks-bitcoin-markets-risk.html
