Lmst

https://www.alojapan.com/1292245/japan-trade-negotiator-akazawa-says-he-made-progress-in-u-s-tariff-talks-2/ Japan trade negotiator Akazawa says he made progress in U.S. tariff talks #AsiaEconomy #BusinessNews #Japan #JapanNews #news #trade #Trumponomics Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s economic revitalization minster, speaks to members of the media at the Japanese embassy in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, May 30, 2025. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images Japan had made some progress in a fifth round of trade talks with U.S. officials aimed at ending tariff…

When you lack data due to self-imposed budget and staffing restrictions, why not estimate economic numbers—

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#USA #USeconomy #USecon #economics #trump #trumponomics

(Bloomberg)

The issue, Englander says, has to do with the BLS's birth-death adjustment - which estimates the net number of jobs created or destroyed by new business creations ('births') and losses from closing businesses ('deaths'). Because NFP is reported on a monthly basis, the BLS ends up largely estimating the birth-death figure based on a model. It can't directly survey openings/closures because it takes time for new businesses to actually be captured in Current Employment Statistics.
More complete data on openings/clo-sures does exist - but always with a lag.
The BLS uses the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for its revisions. But there's also the the Business Employment Dynamics (BED), which the bureau does not currently use.
Both of these - QCEW and BED - take a while to come out, much longer than the monthly cadence with which the BLS publishes its initial NFP numbers.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

And so, when the initial NFP estimate gets compared with the more comprehensive and longer-term CQEW data, you get revisions. Big ones. Based on BED data (which is more up to date than QCEW) at the moment, Englander estimates that:
"Available QCEW data extend through Q4-2024, while BED data extend only through Q3. But Q2 and Q3-2024 BED data show exceptionally weak employment gains at newly formed firms over that period. The BLS birth-death adjustment assumed that roughly 100k new jobs were being created every month by new firms minus closing firms, while BED data for Q2 and Q3-2024 showed that more jobs were lost to firms shutting down than were created by new firms. The gap during those two quarters between NFP and BED is more than 100k jobs per month on average. We suspect that this

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

on average. We suspect that this exaggerated birth-death adjustment explains some but not all of the gap."
To fix the issue, the BLS could try to survey actual closing and opening firms. But of course, that would mean additional resources - and lots of them (since you need to call up repeatedly to make sure the firms are actually closed, and not just failing to respond). Based on this week's news, it doesn't seem like the BLS is getting additional staffing anytime soon.
Maybe the US could devise a better database for tracking businesses creation/ destruction?? But again, large-scale government projects for the purposes of creating more transparency aren't exactly popular right now either.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

So in the meantime, traders, investors, economists, Social Security recipients, or just anyone who wants to know what's going on in this country, are left to grapple with whatever data they can get and make their own judgments of its accu-racy. The risk for the Fed is that it ends up having fewer and fewer reliable data sets to base its decisions on, or starts favoring certain data sets over others because of all these quality issues.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

“…headline or average numbers might not be totally reflective of reality.”

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#USA #USeconomy #USecon #economics #trump #trumponomics

(Bloomberg)

"We're out of time. The current commissioner announced a reduction of the sample by 5,000 households just to keep publishing the rest. Every time you reduce the sample, you lose detail," said Bill Beach, on an Odd Lotsepisode at the end of April.
Well, he was right. America's data disaster is definitely here.
This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for gathering and publishing America's most important economic numbers (think things like CPI, PPI and Non-Farm-Payrolls) said it was "reducing sample in areas across the country," noting that its "current resources can no longer support the collection effort."

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

The reduction is specifically in CPI, but it's indicative of the wider trend described by Beach. It's exactly the kind of thing that Beach, a former BLS com-missioner, was worried about. Sepa-rately, the Wall Street Journal reported that economists are also starting to question the quality of US economic data, with some of them spotting some interesting quirks.
In April's CPI, for instance, UBS economist Alan Detmeister calculated that 29% of price inputs had been made using different-cell imputation, which the BLS deploys when it's unable to directly observe a particular price. Imputing figures involves estimating a number based on comparable items, which means there's an element of judgment involved.
According to Detmeister, 29% of price inputs in the April CPI report were made using imputation, a proportion which the WSJ says is almost twice as high as usual.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

Things like CPI are incredibly important.
Trillions of dollars worth of inflation-pro-tected US government bonds (TIPs) are linked to them. Social Security payouts are based on them. And the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized its own "data dependency" when it comes to figuring out the path of monetary pol-icy.
But what if the data's not great?
The BLS's economic surveys have already been suffering from low response rates, which we've discussed with Beach and in this space before. That means headline or average numbers might not be totally reflective of reality. Reduced sample sizes are only expected to create more volatility in sub-indices, according to the BLS.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

And speaking America's economic data, it is of course Jobs Day, which means we have a live example of BLS statistics to think about. While the headline number came in higher than expected, previous months were revised lower - a pattern which has been repeating itself for a while now and which has prompted a lot of head-scratching.
Why can't the BLS get payrolls right?
Steven Englander over at Standard Chartered (and recent Odd Lots guest) has one theory. He argues that a lack of data means the BLS has been systematically overestimating the US labor market - by a lot. He estimates that the US added only 40,000 new jobs (seasonally-adjusted) between March and December 2024, compared to the 1.4 million reported in the official NFP figures.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

The #US #housingMarket will be hit very hard with high #inflation, high #tariffs, and high #interestRates. … all to come in the next six months! #forecast #trumponomics

Bond vigilantes emerge as Trump's formidable opponent, causing market turbulence and forcing policy reconsideration amid concerns over Trumponomics and its impact on U.S. economy
#YonhapInfomax #BondVigilantes #Trumponomics #USTreasuries #InterestRates #DollarIndex #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=60485

Africa: Trumponomics - Renowned US Economist Predicts $10tn Global Wealth Loss, Says Trump's Tariffs Childish: [This Day] Abuja -- World renowned Economist, Jeffrey Sachs, has launched a scathing attack on Donald Trump's tariff strategy, describing the US president's trade policies as childish and so "delusional" that even Mickey Mouse would know better. http://newsfeed.facilit8.network/TKJFqR #Trumponomics #JeffreySachs #Economics #GlobalWealth #TradePolicies

#Delusional #Nonsense #Trumponomics #Tariffs #ImportTaxes #Recession #inflation #Stagflation

Soviet leaders also bragged incessantly about how awesome their system was and how wonderful the lives of the people thanks to their wise policies, as nothing worked and everything got worse and worse month after month for decades.

#ImpeachTheFascist #uspol #USPolitics #journalism #media #socialmedia #immigrantRights #MakeThemFight #Hardball #impeach #impeachment #DoSomething #NoKings #marker

“Trumponomics isn’t just bad policy—it’s a breeding ground for corruption and market manipulation. The wealthy get richer while everyday Americans foot the bill. Time to expose how these MAGA-driven moves are rigging the system. #Corruption #MAGA #Trumponomics” www.moneytalksnews.com/slideshows/t...

Trump, Trumper, Trumpest: 9 Fi...

#Trump #TrumpSlump #Trumponomics #MAGAnomics #TrumpTariffs

The Rock-Solid Case For Impeachment in 2 minutes.

https://youtu.be/FNvbg4MFLlg

#ImpeachTheFascist #uspol #USPolitics #journalism #media #socialmedia #immigrantRights #Hardball #impeach #impeachment #DoSomething #NoKings #NoDo #Trumponomics #Tariffs #Recession #Trump #Murkowski #Crash #Kilmar

Not anymore, not when Donald Trump is president.

#trump #trumpfailure #trumponomics #stock #stockmarket #100daysofGaeilge #duolingo

Screen shot from Duolingo stating that "Tuilltear airgead sna stocmhargaí sna Stáit Aontaithe."
And the translation:
"Money is earned in the stock markets in the United States"

Trump's 'steel mentality' rooted in supply-side economics, playing golf amid market crash while advisors defend tariffs as path to economic growth
#YonhapInfomax #Trumponomics #SupplySideEconomics #MarketCrash #Tariffs #EconomicAdvisors #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=58366

Al Green's speech demanding impeachment

https://youtu.be/xv7U3EOeBvA?t=1020

#Trumponomics #Tariffs #Recession #ToldYouSo #uspol #USPolitics #journalism #media #socialmedia #ImpeachTheFascist #immigrantRights #MakeThemFight #Hardball #impeach #impeachment #DoSomething #NoKings #NoDo #Trump #marker

Le dollar n’a pas la forme 🥴. Depuis le 20 janvier 2025, il a perdu 7,2 % face à l’euro 📉. À l’époque, 1 dollar valait 0,9596 euro 💵➡️💶. Aujourd’hui ? À peine 0,8906 euro…
Dernière lubie géniale de Trump ? Suspendre par surprise certains tarifs douaniers 🎩✨. les marchés paniquent 🐂➡️🐻, le billet vert chancelle 🤕.
Mais tout est sous contrôle. Du moins, dans l’univers parallèle où l’imprévisibilité est une stratégie économique de haut vol 🚀🤡.
#DollarGate #Trumponomics #MerciDonald #Économy2025

#tariffs #tradewar #trumponomics

#DataCentres ... in ... SPAAAAAACE!!!!! is the most ridiculous news story so far this year. Even more ridiculous then #Trumponomics or #MichaelFabricant's glorious hair. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjewvpkw7weo If you need so much computering that you can't just use a small modern computer then you're going to need cooling for that. Cooling takes about 45% of the power budget for a DC on Earth, and is MUCH HARDER in a vacuum where you can't use the atmosphere or a river as a heat sink.

Trumponomics fuels chaos! Paul Krugman critiques Trump's economic policies, arguing ongoing protectionist tariffs harm the U.S. economy, increase uncertainty, and threaten financial stability. Businesses hesitate to invest amid unpredictable changes, revealing the inherent weakness in Trump's leadership. The potential for a financial crisis looms large, creating risks for both domestic and global markets. Discover more insights in the full article. [Link to full article](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-stupid-erratic-and-weak) #Trumponomics #Economy #Tariffs #FinancialStability

There is a trace of logic if someone who builds and bankrupts casinos for a living goes out and turns the whole world economy into one big casino. Rien ne va plus! #Trumponomics

I go away for a few hours & then this happens
Anyone tell the penguins they can keep their fish?
#Trumponomics
https://x.com/pleightx/status/1910035179298582614?s=46&t=hjYVjCqmaAvU8tWNPdknIA

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#Trumponomics #WorksSoWell

#Trumponomics

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