"Dwarkesh Patel: I want to better understand how you think about that broader transformation. Before we do, the other really interesting part of your worldview is that you have longer timelines to get to AGI than most of the people in San Francisco who think about AI. When do you expect a drop-in remote worker replacement?
Ege Erdil: Maybe for me, that would be around 2045.
Dwarkesh Patel: Wow. Wait, and you?
Tamay Besiroglu: Again, Iām a little bit more bullish. I mean, it depends what you mean by ādrop in remote workerā and whether itās able to do literally everything that can be done remotely, or do most things.
Ege Erdil: Iām saying literally everything.
Tamay Besiroglu: For literally everything. Just shade Egeās predictions by five years or by 20% or something.
Dwarkesh Patel: Why? Because weāve seen so much progress over even the last few years. Weāve gone from Chat GPT two years ago to now we have models that can literally do reasoning, are better coders than me, and I studied software engineering in college. I mean, I did become a podcaster, Iām not saying Iām the best coder in the world.
But if you made this much progress in the last two years, why would it take another 30 to get to full automation of remote work?
Ege Erdil: So I think that a lot of people have this intuition that progress has been very fast. They look at the trend lines and just extrapolate; obviously, itās going to happen in, I donāt know, 2027 or 2030 or whatever. Theyāre just very bullish. And obviously, thatās not a thing you can literally do.
There isnāt a trend you can literally extrapolate of āwhen do we get to full automation?ā. Because if you look at the fraction of the economy that is actually automated by AI, itās very small. So if you just extrapolate that trend, which is something, say, Robin Hanson likes to do, youāre going to say, āwell, itās going to take centuriesā or something."
https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ege-tamay
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