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#PascalsWager

Michael Jackmjack@fosstodon.org
2025-01-26

@VeroniqueB99

See also #Pascalswager

I used to show this video to my chemistry high school students 15 years ago:

youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiad

Charlotte JoanneLottie@beige.party
2024-11-04

**The Choice**

Michael was a young manager at a bustling tech company. He was intelligent, analytical, and always relied on data to make decisions. Despite his success, he felt something was missing. One day, he noticed that his colleague, Laura, seemed exceptionally positive and often achieved remarkable results.

Curious, Michael approached Laura and asked, "I've noticed you always seem optimistic, and good things happen for you. What's your secret?"

Laura smiled and said, "I believe in the Law of Attraction. I focus on positive thoughts, and positive outcomes follow."

Michael frowned. "Do you really think just thinking positively changes anything? It sounds irrational to me."

Laura replied, "Let me tell you a story that might help."

She began, "Years ago, I met a mentor who introduced me to a concept similar to
Pascal's Wager. Pascal was a philosopher who suggested that when we don't know whether something is true, we can weigh the potential outcomes of believing versus not believing."

Michael listened intently as Laura continued.

"Imagine two scenarios," she said. "If I choose to believe in the Law of Attraction and it turns out to be true, I stand to gain a lot—achieving my goals and attracting success. If it turns out to be false, the worst that happens is I've maintained a positive mindset, which isn't a bad thing."

She went on, "On the other hand, if I choose not to believe in it and it's actually true, I might miss out on opportunities I could have attracted. And if it's false, nothing changes—I gain nothing extra."

Laura looked at Michael. "So, by believing, the potential benefits outweigh the risks. It's a rational choice to believe because the possible upside is significant, and the downside is minimal."

Michael pondered this. "So you're saying that even without certainty, choosing to believe is the smarter option because of the potential gains?"

"Exactly," Laura nodded. "It's about maximizing the positive outcomes in your life. Plus, adopting a positive mindset can improve your motivation and relationships, regardless of the Law of Attraction's truth."

Michael considered her words. "I hadn't thought about it that way. It's like making a strategic decision under uncertainty."

"Yes," Laura agreed. "By believing, you're opening yourself up to possibilities. And the cost of believing is low—mainly just a shift in mindset."

Inspired, Michael decided to give it a try. He began each day setting positive intentions, visualizing success, and focusing on opportunities rather than obstacles.

Over time, Michael noticed changes. His team responded better to his leadership, new opportunities arose, and he felt more fulfilled. Whether it was the Law of Attraction or the effects of a positive attitude, his life improved.

One day, he thanked Laura. "Your advice made a real difference. By choosing to believe, I've gained so much."

Laura smiled. "Sometimes, the most intelligent choice is to embrace possibilities, especially when the potential rewards are great and the risks are small."

Michael nodded. "It's a lesson I'll carry with me."

**The Takeaway**

Choosing to believe in positive principles like the Law of Attraction can be a wise decision when the potential benefits outweigh the minimal costs. By adopting a positive mindset, you open yourself up to opportunities and improvements in your life. Even in uncertainty, embracing belief can lead to meaningful change.

#LawOfAttraction #PascalsWager

GMcGathgmcgath@liberdon.com
2024-09-25

Interesting point here: If you accept the logic of Pascal's Wager, you should decide to believe in a God who will inflict the worst Hell on unbelievers rather than a more merciful God, since that maximizes the punishment you'll avoid.
youtube.com/watch?v=JE-P6mw60-
#religion #PascalsWager

Charismatic BatmanCharismaticBatman@theres.life
2024-08-17

@thomasfuchs

I would have never thought of applying #PascalsWager to #ClimateChange. That's genius!

Atheism ActuallyAtheismActually@mstdn.social
2024-07-30

To be further accurate, you would also not know how many people are on each track, or whether there are any people at all on each track, or how many tracks there are.

#PascalsWager #trolleyProblem #decisionTheory #apologetics

h/t @AnswersInReason

Gemma ⭐️🔰🇺🇸 🇵🇭 🎐gcvsa@mstdn.plus
2024-07-23

The problem with #PascalsWager is that it assumes that we have some duty to obey deity. The best argument against it is that if deity exists and is benevolent, deity would not condemn an individual to suffering for disbelief or even disobedience, or it would not be benevolent, and if deity does exist and is malevolent, then deity does not deserve obedience, and you have a moral obligation to disobey, even at the cost of infinite suffering. Pascal’s formulation is morally invalid.

𝗖 𝗔 𝗧Radical_EgoCom
2024-05-26

Homer Simpson made a perfect rebuttal to Pascals Wager in the episode "Homer the Heretic", S4E3 :

"And what if we pick the wrong religion?
Every week, we're just making God madder and madder."

IanIan_R_Howard@mastodonapp.uk
2024-04-24

Pascal argues: the potential reward (eternal happiness) is SO great, even a tiny chance of God existing makes belief the RATIONAL choice. But is faith just a bet? #PascalsWager #religion

wasmormonwasmormon@mas.to
2023-04-27

Pascal’s Wager for Mormons and Ex-Mormons

wasmormon.org/pascals-wager-fo

#philosophy #god #mormon #pascalswager #heaven #hell #exmormon #god #believe #wronggod #gods #deconstruction #religion

An argument against Pascal’s Wager states that the idea of this wager already assumes God exists, and that he takes this bet too. The wager is already begging the question. There’s no guarantee God or Heaven is what we expect. What if there is a God saying: “Hey, I don’t know how you got these crazy ideas. I never promised you any of this! I just want you to be good, kind people. Live your life. That’s why you are all there.”Blaise Pascal (a French Philosopher in the 1600s) suggests in Pascal’s Wager that it is rational to believe in God, even if there is no conclusive evidence of His existence. The potential infinite reward outweighs the finite cost of missed opportunities, while the potential infinite loss from not believing in God outweighs the finite gain of living a free lifestyle. As humans, we gamble with our lives that God either exists or does not and he claims we’re better off believing.The premise of Pascal’s Wager also assumes there is only one God. Which God are we meant to follow? What if a different God actually exists and the Christian God does not? We would end up putting all our time and effort into worshipping the “wrong God”? We would dedicate our entire life and still suffer in the next life because we chose poorly. Would picking the wrong religion upset the “right God” any more than being atheist or agnostic?Oversimplified Decision Matrix Representing Pascal’s Wager
wasmormonwasmormon@mas.to
2023-04-26

wasmormon.org/pascals-wager-fo

Marcus Aurelius quote about God/gods.

#pascalswager #marcusaurelius #mormon #exmormon #church #God #gods #exmo #religion

“You may leave this life at any moment: have this possibility in your mind in all that you do or say or think. Now departure from the world of men is nothing to fear, if gods exist: because they would not involve you in any harm. If they do not exist, or if they have no care for humankind, then what is life to me in a world devoid of gods, or devoid of providence? But they do exist, and they do care for humankind: and they have put it absolutely in man’s power to avoid falling into the true kinds of harm. If there were anything harmful in the rest of experience, they would have provided for that too, to make it in everyone’s power to avoid falling into it; and if something cannot make a human being worse, how could it make his life a worse life?” – Marcus Aurelius, Meditations 2.11 (Hammond Translation)“Live a good life. If there are gods and they are just, then they will not care how devout you have been, but will welcome you based on the virtues you have lived by. If there are gods, but unjust, then you should not want to worship them. If there are no gods, then you will be gone, but will have lived a noble life that will live on in the memories of your loved ones.” Often Misattributed to Marcus Aurelius
RationalWikiRationalWiki@universeodon.com
2023-02-07

Roko's basilisk is a thought experiment about the potential risks involved in developing artificial intelligence. Its conclusion is that an all-powerful artificial intelligence from the future might retroactively punish those who did not help bring about its existence, including those who merely knew about the possible development of such a being. It is named after Roko Mijic, the member of the rationalist community #LessWrong who first publicly described it, though he did not originate the underlying ideas.

The basilisk resembles a futurist version of Pascal's wager, in that it suggests people should weigh possible punishment versus reward and as a result accept particular singularitarian ideas or financially support their development.

Despite widespread #incredulity, this argument is taken quite seriously by some people, primarily some denizens of LessWrong.

#RationalWIki #thoughtexperiment #artificialintelligence #rokosbasilisk #pascalswager #singularity
rationalwiki.org/wiki/Roko%27s

Humanist Engineeratheistengineer
2023-01-10

is hilarious. @SMBCComics
 . 

smbc-comics.com/comic/pascal39

Comic if a newspaper ad that reads, “send me your money and profit thereby! The reasoning: by sending me all of your money, you have some finite chance of receiving infinite money in return. Therefore, it is logical to send me all of your money.”
Matt Hodgkinsonmattjhodgkinson@scicomm.xyz
2023-01-05

On LinkedIn, Alex Zhavoronkov is celebrating (?) publishing nonsense in #Oncoscience in a day using ChatGPT. Citing the EiC likely helped. The AI churned out text on Pascal’s wager in the context of Rapamycin that fails to develop an argument linking religious belief to the merits of life extension.

I hope this is a sting and Alex doesn't stand by the inane content.

linkedin.com/posts/activity-70

#ChatGPT #AIwriting #PredatoryJournals #Stings #LongevityMedicine #PascalsWager #Rapamycin #LinkedIn

Rapamycin in the context of Pascal’s Wager: generative pre-trained transformer perspective ChatGPT Generative Pre-trained Transformer2 and Alex Zhavoronkov1 1 Insilico Medicine, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong 2 OpenAI, San Francisco, CA 94110, USA Correspondence to: Alex Zhavoronkov, email: alex@insilico.com Keywords: artificial intelligence; Rapamycin; philosophy; longevity medicine; Pascal’s Wager Received: December 14, 2022 Accepted: December 15, 2022 Published: December 21, 2022 Copyright: © 2022 Zhavoronkov. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. ABSTRACT Large language models utilizing transformer neural networks and other deep learning architectures demonstrated unprecedented results in many tasks previously accessible only to human intelligence. In this article, we collaborate with ChatGPT, an AI model developed by OpenAI to speculate on the applications of Rapamycin, in the context of Pascal’s Wager philosophical argument commonly utilized to justify the belief in god. In response to the query “Write an exhaustive research perspective on why taking Rapamycin may be more beneficial than not taking Rapamycin from the perspective of Pascal’s wager” ChatGPT provided the pros and cons for the use of Rapamycin considpotentially provide significant health benefits and extend an individual's lifespan. On the other hand, if Rapamycin is not beneficial or even harmful, not taking it would avoid any potential negative effects. One potential benefit of taking Rapamycin is that it has been shown to have anti-aging effects in animal studies. Rapamycin is an immunosuppressive drug that is commonly used to prevent transplant rejection, but it has also been shown to extend lifespan and improve health in mice and other animals. These effects are thought to be due to its ability to inhibit the activity of a protein called mTOR, which is involved in the aging process. In addition to its potential anti-aging effects, Rapamycin has also been studied for its potential benefits in treating various diseases. For example, it has been shown to be effective in treating certain types of cancer, and it has also been studied for its potential to treat neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease. Given these potential benefits, it could be argued that, from the perspective of Pascal's wager, it is in an individual's best interest to take Rapamycin. Even if there is some uncertainty about whether the drug will be effective or not, the potential rewards for taking it (e.g., improved health, extended lifespan) are significant, while the potential drawbacks (e.g., side effects) are minimal. On the other hand, it is also important to consider the potential drawbacks of taking RaAlex Zhavoronkov. This is so much fun. I just co-authored the first free open-access perspective with ChatGPT. Pleased to be on the paper with this beautiful GPT. ChatGPT took approximately 10 seconds to write it and it took me about an hour to polish, reference and submit. https://lnkd.in/gMKKdD6d Research Perspective Rapamycin in the context of Pascal's Wager: generative pre-trained transformer perspective ChatGPT Generative Pre-trained Transformer2 and Alex Zhavoronkov¹ 1. Insilico Medicine, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong 2. OpenAI, San Francisco, CA 94110, USA Correspondence to: Alex Zhavoronkov, email: alex@insilico.com Keywords: artificial Intelligence: Rapamycin; philosophy: longevity medicine: Pascal's Wager Received: December 14, 2022 Accepted: December 15, 2022 Published: December 21, 2022 Copyright: 2022 Zhavoronkov. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. ABSTRACT Large language models utilizing transformer neural networks and other deep learning architectures demonstrated unprecedented results in many tasks previously accessible only to human intelligence. In this article, we collaborate with ChatGPT, an AI model developed by OpenAI to speculate on the applications of Rapamycin, in the context of Pascal's Wager ...
ceolnceoln@qoto.org
2022-12-05

A long and vaguely nerdy essage in the ol' #weblog about #philosophy and #Omelas and #PascalsWager and #Longtermism and related stuff.

Omelas, Pascal, Roko, and Long-termism ceoln.wordpress.com/2022/12/04

Josephjoegrimer@rcsocial.net
2022-11-23

@DeveloperMemes but whatabout #pascalswager ?

theredelmTheRedElm@mstdn.social
2022-11-20

@godpod Hi God, it’s me, Mar. #pascalswager

Jeff Cliffjeffcliff@mamot.fr
2018-11-13

lesswrong.com/posts/9weLK2AJ9J #pariscall #bias #pascalswager

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