Apple makes philosophers, foldable makes heroes, #SARS2PA makes sages.
#SARS2PA
10/7/2024
Good Morning SARS2PAians! 🍁🍁🍁
I haven't been posting much because the picture didn't really change all that much for us so far. Numbers for PA wastewater are going down except for a bit in Philly.: https://ibb.co/sPRmszP
KP.3.x.y still very much at the top of the leaderboard.: https://ibb.co/09g7CCV
The newest variants to watch are MV.1 and especially recombinant XEC for the winter. XEC is really taking off in France and the UK is expecting doing some numbers with this. It's already hit 10% in some parts of Canada. It's at 2% so far in PA.: https://ibb.co/tDk0N5m
XEC was at 1% of random sequencing in the US at the beginning of September and at the end of the month was at 6%.
This doesn't seem like much but when you consider how blazingly FAST KP.3.1.1 is, this is thoroughbred level faster.
XEC is expected to grow steadily all fall and winter, and could end up being the troublesome winter variant.
That's all I have for now, until I see (but hopefully not) XEC potentially doing the numbers.
QUICK REMINDERS: Grab those tests kits available through the mail now and don't consume raw dairy!! 🍁🍁🍁
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3 #XEC #MV1
#Wastewater
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #mRNA #Novavax
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
9/16/2024
Good Morning SARS2PAians!
Hope you are enjoying this beautiful weather. ☀️😎☀️
__________
VOCs
Still, nothing much has changed, the top two variants which also make up the bulk of random sequencing are KP.3.1.1 and KP.2.3.:https://ibb.co/9NJNYpj
XEC is still around, though in PA it's still at the bottom of the sequencing list and doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
There is a new variant that is being watched closely, and that is MV.1. It's shown to be potentially as fast as KP.3.1.1 with some very strange, little-understood mutations. It's a good competitor to KP.3.1.1 and while not very different from current variants, the actual mutations are very concerning because some are so rare.: https://ibb.co/XSRQXVX
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Wastewater
Wastewater levels are HIGH according to WastewaterSCAN, and CDC also considers them HIGH (not "Very High".): https://ibb.co/bmqSXvn
On the PA wastewater dashboard we're overall stable with some increases, but on WastewaterSCAN Harrisburg again is rising quickly, which shows a need for source control.: https://ibb.co/9wCTx3s
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That's all I have right now as I run out the door today! Please get those updated flu/COVID vaccinations, stay safe and we'll keep an eye on MV.1 together! 👀 👀 👀
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3 #XEC #MV1
#Wastewater
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #mRNA #Novavax
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!
1/2 for Sept. 9th, 2024
I hope you are having a healthy and productive late summer!☀️
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VOCs
The national mutation leaderboard hasn't changed much.: https://ibb.co/LP1L4LZ
There are no new mutations that are on the far horizon that can compete with KP.3.1.1 so far.
The closest competitor is the recombinant XEC, a combo of KS.1.1 and KP.3.1, and is maybe almost equally as fast as what we have now.
We have XEC already in PA.: https://ibb.co/JpnYfcJ
The good news is XEC, as I mentioned last time, has only 2 spike mutations different from KP.3.1.1, so any immunity granted against KP.x.y will also work very well against XEC.
Actually, the current versions are pretty stagnant. Stagnation is good as it gives us a breather, but it's also what happened between XBB and JN.1/KP.x.y.: https://ibb.co/BCqrTFN
Thanks to variant hunters, who constantly monitor virus genetics and then estimate growth rates (and some of which are not even paid to do this for us), we will have a few weeks to a month or two of any incoming fast, binding, or immune-evasive mutations.
Keep watching that space. It's important, especially as winter approaches.
__________
Wastewater
WastewaterSCAN still has our region at HIGH levels of SARS2.: https://ibb.co/wRCwRkK
Chester's numbers are not low, but much more manageable than in other areas. Harrisburg is doing much better as numbers keep going down there! Good work Hburg!: https://ibb.co/Pm9kF4H
Our region's numbers are going down after a peak already. This is a relief. We are still the HHS region with the lowest numbers.: https://ibb.co/3zcRKJL
PA, after quite a sizeable spike, is VERy quickly returning to numbers way below national average and more on par with the rest of the region.: https://ibb.co/VtVxDYX
We're doing something right. 💪
But remember, numbers are still in the moderate to HIGH range, so please keep working on source control.
According to CDC, there is NO state right now having anything less than "moderate" wastewater levels. Clearly this is defintely NOT a best-case scenario going into Fall.
Existing immune deficiency due to previous reinfections (and first time infections!) and already very high virus spread might make for quite a high-maintenance Fall and Winter this year.
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Kits, vaxes, etc.
Reminder that you can get 4 Federally funded tests kits by mail at the end of this month. Don't miss it!!
Covidtests.gov: https://aspr.hhs.gov/covid-19/test/Pages/default.aspx
There's also a tool from Vaccines.gov to find an mRNA KP.2 vaccination near you!!!
🔴Also reminder: if you have an uncomfortably strong reaction to mRNA vaccines, please do give Novavax a try. It's protein-based, and formulated much like a traditional tetanus shot, rather than mRNA.
https://us.novavaxcovidvaccine.com/find-a-vaccine
I am not in any way paid to promote Novavax. And I'm not the company President, but...I am in fact a client 😎
If you are unable to get Novavax, PLEASE.....get something.
🔴And gooooooo get a FLU SHOT too if you are able!
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Other Pathogens
:coronavirus: H5N1
There was a first case already of H5N1 infection in a person in Missouri, NOT linked, so far, to animal contact and not farm related.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/health/first-human-case-of-bird-flu-not-linked-to-animals/index.html
This is the current picture for H5N1. Found in 14 states.: https://ibb.co/pfrFxtT
This is ...pretty bad. This is getting progressively...kinda bad.
🔴Please DO NOT consume raw dairy products: raw eggs, undercooked/rare meat, unpasteurized dairy. Dippy eggs. Raw egg-based cookie dough. Just don't.
🔴Use extra caution with animals like rodents in your home, especially if you have to deal with them after they're trapped.
🔴Keep your cats indoors and dogs away from prey. H5N1 has a super-high kill rate especially in cats.
Stock up NOW on a few N95s (you will NOT want less than a genuine N95 for this thing), gloves, and MERV-13 filters for those CR boxes.
CDC can repeat "risk assessment low" all they want, we should NOT be screwing around with something than has an estimated baseline 20% kill rate, which is the reason I spend so much time on this subject in a SARS2 forum.
The current genetics of H5N1 is not scary, but giving this thing more chances to hit the lottery is the worst thing we could be doing now.
🔴Again: H5N1 cannot combine with the pathogen that causes COVID19, because one is a SARS and the other is an influenza. They are way too different from each other. But it CAN combine with influenza A and B....and we are entering that season soon.
We can do the best things in preparation NOW for a worst case scenario which means building up some basic PPE at home, avoiding exposure. Prepare =/= panic.
Please stay safe this coming Fall and keep that source control down!
☀️🍁☀️
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3 #XEC #FLuQUE
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #mRNA #Novavax
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Afternoon and Holiday, SARS2PAians!
🔴1/2 Sept/2/2024
I hope you're having a GREAT late summer. ☀️
There's not much going on that is new right now in VOC land. Top variants are still KP.3, descendats of JN.1.
KP.3 is FAST. Super fast. It's like a heat-seeking missle, getting a lot of people that have never had COVID before, for the first time.
Including me 🙄 which is why I didn't post last week. I apologize yet again.
__________
My stuff (should you for some weird reason be curious)
I tested + almost a week and a half ago and am STILL testing positive. I am doing everything possible to not give this thing air. I'm wearing an N95 outside all the time now and only going out if it's necessary. I have 2 Corsi-Rosenthal boxes that go every moment I'm home to protect my pets. I'm feeling OK but not 100%...maybe 75%.
I am determined to keep testing every day as long as it's financially doable.
I'm monitoring my symptoms, both acute, long term, and especially cognitive (most scary and hardest to tell) for any further changes.
I think I have Novavax (I am not paid to write this, I wish I was 🙄) to thank for not being worse than this because it's been clinically proven to grant extra protection to upper respiratory passages, which is ground zero for where SARS2 enters the body...(at least against the older variants).: https://ibb.co/1fCjZvr
BA.5 Study Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10451060/
AGAIN...if you have an uncomfortably strong reaction to mRNA, please give Novavax a try as overall, it's been proven to cause fewer side effects AND be more cross-protective between current mutations.
But if you do not have access to Novavax...Please. Get something.
__________
XEC
As far as XEC (which is a recombinant of KP.3.3 and KS.1), it's still being monitored for spread as it's the only thing that can possibly even keep up with KP.3.x.y now.
The good thing is, it has a difference of only two spike changes from KP.3.1.1 (the top variant blazing around now) so vaccines will protect VERY well against it, too.: https://ibb.co/9yfCqFc
Both Novavax (JN.1 formula, the "trunk" of the current top variant tree) and mRNA (KP.2 formula, a "branch" of the tree that most closely resembles current variants) are very good matches to the top variants going around and they're all out for scheduling right now.: https://ibb.co/1RFn3HF
:canparrot: GO GET VAXED! (...and for flu, too!)
Also get those 4 Federally-funded test kits through the mail when they're available in late September!: https://aspr.hhs.gov/covid-19/test/Pages/default.aspx
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Wastewater
Wastewater numbers are still VERY HIGH according to CDC and WastewaterSCAN nationally.: https://ibb.co/Wx4jyKy
PA's wastewater numbers continue to rise:https://ibb.co/QPfQvmK
...while the rest of the HHS regions' numbers have seemingly hit peak. According to CDC we've been bumped up to the VERY HIGH slot.: https://ibb.co/QczqW3m
Harrisburg is again getting hit really hard with viral spread, being at the top in wasteewater right now out of HHS Region 3. Please stay safe and wear a quality well-fitting respirator in crowded areas or places with suboptimal ventilation!
Continued in next post.....
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3 #XEC #FLuQUE
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!
I hope this cooler weather is bringing you some comfort after that ridiculously hot and humid past few weeks 😖
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VOCs
Nationally, KP.3.1.1 is still at the top of the leaderboard, as expected. This is one superfast variant, and also immune evasive to previous vaccination and infection due to antigenic drift.: https://ibb.co/rx5H4KB
One mutation that is closely being watched is XEC, a recombinant of KP.3.3 and KS.1.1.: https://ibb.co/bzFQX1j
Numbers are rather low right now: https://ibb.co/9bKFtWF
But it has a bit faster relative growth than what we're dealing with now.: https://ibb.co/S3701rR
It's already in PA and in 11 other States.: https://ibb.co/CW82KYL
It's not **superfast**, but if it's different enough than the upcoming vaccines AND existing immune priming, it has a lot of potential to add to the already high numbers and make this winter really.....somethin'. 😖
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Test Kits
:canparrot: 4 more Federally funded home delivered test kits are going to be available in late September.: https://ibb.co/L56XdjP
Keep watching Covidtests.gov for more info!: https://aspr.hhs.gov/covid-19/test/Pages/default.aspx
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Go Get a Vax or Two (soon)
KP.x.y based vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer have been approved and are steadily on their way to distribution; Novavax (probably JN.1) is coming soon, too.
🔴Reminder: If you have a very strong, rather inconvenient reaction to mRNA vaxes, please do give Novavax a try. It is more like a traditional tetanus shot in mechanics and is widely reported as causing little to no side-effects!
I do not work with any of these manufacturers (believe me I'd be making a looooooot more money if I did 💀) but I do have experience with both Novavax and mRNA shots if anyone has questions.
No matter what is available to you or not, please DO get something.
🔴Also get those flu shots coming up next month!
(Mostly because...well...the medical community does not want to deal with your entirely preventable severe flu on top of dealing with COVID patients and other people needing medical care.)
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Wastewater
Folks...nationally, wastewater is really high right now, especially in the West. The map looked like this last week when PA was lower.: https://ibb.co/DCsjJys
The current CDC wastewater map has PA at "high" levels now. The kids are almost ready to go back to school if not there right now, and source control is going to be very important.: https://ibb.co/10SGmBc
WastewaterSCAN has the entire country as experiencing HIGH wastewater levels.
Every classroom should have a Corsi-Rosenthal box in it to reduce illness. There should be no silly excuses not to give these to kids as we enter the fall, especially if you actually really do care about learning loss.
The regional wastewater trends looked like this: https://ibb.co/rG8HnmY
....where the East was noticeably lower than the rest of the country, but now Eastern levels have not peaked yet and are still going up even though the West might have peaked.
The current trend map looks like this: https://ibb.co/Dp2BWSn
.....with the other HHS regions peaking (hopefully). We're still rising but hopefully we'll peak soooooooon and that will be that.
Region 3 is looking much better as of right now, and Harrisburg is HANDLING IT and bringing those numbers way down!! Good job Hburg!: https://ibb.co/gTJr241
I hope you have a safe and loss-free late Summer and early Fall!
☀️🍁☀️
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!
Once again, I am requesting you accept my apology for shifting some posts to Monday instead of Friday. The past few weeks were...somethin'.
And I hope you are enjoying your SUMMER! ☀️
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:ms_arrow_right: Wastewater
Nothing has really changed tho, wastewater numbers are going WAY UP nationally and kids aren't even back to school yet.: https://ibb.co/X555c7w
Wearing a quality respirator should be considered in crowds, in places of low ventilation AND in ANY close contact...even outside.
Controlling this stuff at the source (which is other people already infected) NOW will prevent LEARNING LOSS this winter.
We don't want LEARNING LOSS.....do we? 🤔
While regionally, our Northeast region is still doing much, much better than the rest of the country, and Chester is doing much better than a few weeks ago, Harrisburg is still AT THE TOP of wastewater results for our region. Please respirator-up and be aware of social contacts in H-burg!: https://ibb.co/bHXf3SP
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:ms_arrow_right: Other Pathogens
🔴Mpox
There's....um...still quite a lot going on that's not SARS2.
Mpox has been declared a Public Health Emergency of international Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Org.
This is NOT...N O T the same beast as in 2022.
This is a different clade (Clade I) which is many times more deadly than the 2022 version.
***EDIT: CLADE I IS THE NEWER VERSION OF MPOX AND I'VE ALSO EDITED THE REDDIT POST.***
Mpox Clade II has been separated out on WastewaterSCAN and you can see testing results for it there.: https://ibb.co/WDMzmjM
Yes there are some vaccines for it,: https://x.com/sailorrooscout/status/1824100811351244818
and they are both from smallpox as Mpox is in the same family and they are genetically similar enough to be cross-effective.
One is JYNNEOS (Imvanex, IMVAMUNE) which is non-replicating and pretty much safe for everyone. The ACTUAL smallpox vaccine is live virus which makes it...not really all that ideal because you have to be soooooo much more careful with it, but STILL effective for life as long as exposure remains low.
Mpox is not new and there are effective antivirals against it; however this clade is NEW and its high death rate is of concern.
We MUST ramp up vaccine production against this disease.
🔴H5N1
H5N1 is a version of Influenza A and is also separated out on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/LZpj7pT
There are still new herds testing positive for H5N1 (Bird Flu/Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza/HPAI).
We MUST pull out all the stops and keep testing our food supply chain, especially pigs. Pigs are asymptomatic against H5N1 (which is like the woooooorst news I will probably learn this entire year) and yet they are the ideal mix of human-like and animal-like genomes that could trigger dangerous mutations.: https://ibb.co/HBNpXVW
DO NOT consume non-pasteurized dairy.
DO NOT consume undercooked meat and eggs (no dippy eggs, y'all!)
You might want to consider Ultra-Pasteurized dairy instead of "pasteurized" dairy and plant-based meat replacements.
🔴Cats have an especially VERY high death rate from H5N1, with end results similar to rabies (massive brain swelling and damage). Please keep your kitties indoors and away from dead birds.
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:ms_arrow_right: Fire/PM2.5
So far so good with wildfire smoke over here in PA. While most of Canada is enveloped in lower air quality, we are so far not in the windpath of it.
Keep those Corsi-Rosenthal boxes handy in case the wind takes a turn for the worst for us. Keeping windows tightly closed is good for wildfire smoke but terrible for pathogen control. CR boxes can make up for this loss of filteration!
Honestly, everyone should have a CR box at home, and every classroom should have one. Especially this winter.
:coronavirus: This winter is going to be...somethin'...if we don't do some source control NOW.
:canparrot: We can do this with some empathy and a LOT of source control!
Please have a safe Summer and upcoming Fall! ☀️🍁☀️
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3 #S31Del
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Morning SARS2PAians!
I hope you're enjoying this break from the brain-melting heat and humidity this summer. (It's so much better sleeping 😴)
Wastewater
My focus will be on wastewater as nothing has really changed mutation-wise. KP.3.x.y still wrecking us due to antigenic drift.
KP.3.x.y rising exponentially right now in wastewater. The positivity rate is not as terrible, but +rate is a lagging indication compared to wastewater.
CDC has the VAST MAJORITY of States experiencing VERY HIGH levels of SARS2 concentration in wastewater.: https://ibb.co/nR2kb6Q
PA is in the Moderate category on this map, and indeed the Northeast is in the lowest slot for WW increases out of all regions.:https://ibb.co/3r4j6KH
And actually the PA Wastewwater monitoring map looks much better than last time, but the peak isn't in sight yet.: https://ibb.co/9shCm3M
The highest raised levels in PA are in the Harrisburg region. Folks there might want to consider respirators in public and watch social contacts as school IS NOT going to make this metric better.: https://ibb.co/xG3rY4L
These increases nationally are matching what SHOULD be a post-Holidays winter wave.: https://ibb.co/sVwBs9L
There COULD be a chance that the latest KP.3.x.y variants are more gut-related, so people are shedding more in wastewater than compared to other variants, which in turn, means the +rate will not be as terrible...but using caution, wearing a quality respirator, keeping the air fresh and clean and being aware of social contacts means this wil be controlled for the new school year and we won't have to find things out the hard way.
PLEASE use some common sense and caution going into September.
🔴Vaccines have not been released yet, as soon as they are available, please get vaccinated with the newset version of COVID (JN.1 or KP.2) and the latest flu shot.
🔴Remember there is a two-week "prep stage" as it works through the system before a vaccine is fully effective.
:canparrot: With some common sense and source control we can stop the uphill statistics and prevent lots of life, finance, and learning loss.
I hope you continue to have a GREAT SUMMER! ☀️🔥☀️
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA
#KP3 #S31Del
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Morning SARS2PAians!
I hope you're staying cool. Or at least dehumidified in this murky summer air. 😖
Reminder: I'll try to be better "approving" posts on Reddit in the future. I've approved of all previous posts so they should be more accessible now. I apologize not doing this sooner, I had a whole six months of family emergencies (not COVID) and those details kinda got lost along the way.
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VOCs
Nationally, the fastest mover so far, KP.3.1.1, has taken over the top slot in the variant leaderboard between Friday and today.
Friday: https://ibb.co/3Cx513s
Today: https://ibb.co/QCx4LPW
Genetic shift and waning immunity is causing a substantial uptick in ED visits in most States on the Eastern half of the contiguous US.: https://ibb.co/SncRcpj
There are still no new variants on the horizon that can compete with KP.3.x.y. so far, but it is blazing fast and immune resistant due to genetic mutations.
__________
Wastewater
Nationally, levels are now HIGH on every monitoring site, and in most States. They're actaully pretty much even with what is usually a winter outbreak.
The wastewater levels by HHS region keep rising, though the Northeast is the lowest of all regions.: https://ibb.co/hmYGbJ8
Please consider wearing a quality respirator in enclosed rooms and crowded areas so we can get these numbers down.
Compared to other areas though Pennsylvania is doing well, well below national averag: https://ibb.co/N9SM8Rb
but the Harrisburg area is getting hit particularly hard right now.: https://ibb.co/JnYLNVx
JN.1/KP.2 vaccines are supposed to be available starting late this month or September for all major manufacturers (Pfizer, Moderna, Novavax).
:canparrot: PLEASE GET VACCINATED as soon as these are available.
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Other Issues
The fires in Canada and Western US are underway and spreading dangerous pollutants. PM2.5 levels are tolerable in PA right now, but remember respirators and Corsi-Rosenthal boxes will definitely help if things get out of control again.: https://ibb.co/ZhDFzvb
We are getting closer and closer to human-to-human transmission for H5N1, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI/H5N1).
:coronavirus: Please consider reducing dairy products in your diet and DO NOT drink or eat raw or undercooked animal products AT ALL.
:coronavirus: Consider moving up from "pasteurized" to "ultra-pasteurized" milk.
:coronavirus: Consider replacing meat with plant-based alternatives. (They can be delicious too!)
I hope we can cooperate NOW to make this winter healthy and safe for all of us.
We can prevent so much life, economic, and learning loss with jsut a little precaution and oding SOME form of source control.
Have a great (and dehumidified UGH) week! 🔥☀️🔥
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA
#KP3 #S31Del
#Wildfire #CanadianFires #FireMonitoring #PM2_5
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Morning/Afternoon SARS2PAians!
I apologize for not posting for a week or so. I'm taking care of a needy relative (not COVID) and honestly sometimes that absorbs A LOT of my time, entire mornings and sometimes entire days.
Again, also it's also harder to get accurate info about SARS2 as most virologists I follow are getting totally absorbed into the extremely concerning HPAI/H5N1/bird outbreak monitoring and advocacy.
I hope you're having a great Summer and have recovered from the heat waves! 🔥☀️🔥
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VOCs
KP.3.x.y is still making its way through the world, causing rising numbers wherever it goes.
Most of our current mutations travelling around are some form of KP.3.: https://ibb.co/R74xdfC
There are no upcoming mutations/lineages that can compete with it so far.
__________
Wastewater, +rate
WastewaterSCAN shows national levels as HIGH everywhere in the US.: https://ibb.co/n0Fgg28
🔴In fact, SARS2 is THE ONLY PATHOGEN right now on WWS that is considered at HIGH levels!!
Levels are increasing in our HHS region (Region 5, and in fact PA has some of the highest levels tested here.: https://ibb.co/phrHxDD
The PA Wastewater dashboard has levels increasing substantially in McKean County and West Chester.: https://ibb.co/Nngwjt2
The National +rate, despite abysmal levels of testing, is very high right now and is in fact higher than it was IN JANUARY this year.: https://ibb.co/1dxn41F
PA's rate continues to upwardly climb as KP.3's shifted mutations are highly capable of immune escape.: https://ibb.co/Jn1MJs4
🔴Vaccines should be out by the major manufacturers (Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax) very soon, either next month or September. PLEASE get vaccinated as soon as possible.
__________
H5N1
These are outbreaks continuing almost daily in US cattle and bird farms.
A cluster of poultry workers with H5N1 symptoms is being monitored in Colorado. This is the first time a CLUSTER of H5N1 has occurred. Ten cases in one month...compare this to 880 cases in the entire world over 21 years.
51 herds so far affected in Colorado, which is also the only the state that seems to care enough to start some methods of mandatory testing and developing a tracker tool for outbreaks.: https://ag.colorado.gov/animal-health/reportable-diseases/avian-influenza/hpai-in-dairy-cattle
There have been 173 nationwide herds affected with H5N1 so far.
There is sufficient evidence that H5N1 is now travelling mammal-to-mammal. This is really really very bad.: https://ibb.co/9wnP7vp
🔴PAians might want to consider some increased food safety practices:
Move up from "pasteurized" milk to "ultra-pasteurized".
Consider non-dairy food sources such as plant beverages and tofu.
Do not consume meat that is NOT fully cooked. Have steaks medium insread of rare or medium rare.
🔴DO NOT🔴 consume raw/unpasteurized dairy products.
Just don't.
Don't be That Guy™.
__________
Fire Monitoring
Fire season is very much underway. So far, we are not in the path of dangerous PM2.5 levels.: https://ibb.co/HXscYcF
As fires spread in Canada and Western US it's just as important to watch these levels as they have a detrimental effect on air quality and long-term respiratory health!
The same precautions work against SARS2, H5N1, and wildfore smoke. Wearing a quality respirator (at least a very well-fitted KN95/N95 and making sure fllters are a high enough grade help control all these potential respiratory hazards.
🔴If you MUST keep doors/windows closed due to fire, oppressive humidity or a heatwave, PLEASE get yourself some MERV filters, a box fan, and go build a Corsi-Rosenthal box. Controlling oppressive weather hazards and PM2.5 smoke by keeping houses tightly closed is totally antithetical to controlling SARS2.
__________
Between PM2.5 monitoring, COVID and H5N1, that's....a lot going on.😳
But the methods of prevention and source control are all THE SAME: quality respirators and MERV13 filters. :canparrot:
If we can keep SARS2 controlled enough during the summer, it will make for a much better, not-terrible Fall and Winter. But we must start controlling it NOW.
Hope you have a great weekend and again I apologize for dropping updates lately. ☀️☀️☀️
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA
#KP3 #S31Del
#Wildfire #CanadianFires #FireMonitoring #PM2_5
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!
I apologize for my late post today and not posting at all last week. The situation did not change all that much last week so there was not that much new info to go on anyway.
Also, most virologists are slowly getting more absorbed into the more potentially devastating H5N1 pandemic currently playing out in the animal kingdom, which is totally understandable but...still takes away from SARS2/C19 discussion. 😣
🔴Just a quick reminder that if you need to keep windows and doors shut during this 🔥HEATWAVE🔥, you might want to start using or build a Corsi-Rosenthal Box as keeping houses and businesses tightly shut against the elements is diametrically opposed to virus control.
__________
VOCs
There are no recent drastic changes in the COVID19 landscape so far.
Nationally, KP.2.3 in the lead, and quite a few mutations based on KP.3 right after.: https://ibb.co/jgsnv72
The newest mutation to watch seems to be KP.4.1 which is in very low numbers, currently under 1%, for now.
There are no specifics on the Tableau site so for for PA as far as mutations are concerned.
In NY/NJ, LB.1.7 in the lead, and again KP.3.1.1 is shown to move fast over there at 10% of leaderboard share.: https://ibb.co/vCFVRmN
__________
+rate
Nationally, according to Walgreens, the +rate is going almost stright up. No doubt the East being shut inside for extreme hot/humid weather is NOT helping this, as is waning vaccination effectiveness due to mutational drift.: https://ibb.co/8M4ZFMb
🔴PLEASE get vaccinated when JN.1/KP.2 versions come out in the next few months.
Out of about 5,000 PCR tests done, over a third (39.6%) are positive.
This is a STRONG swing upward that started in April.
The swing upward is mirrored in PA, but only 52 tests have been done. If you aren't feeling well, PLASE use a home test and stay home if you are sick!: https://ibb.co/WnymxfP
__________
Wastewater
WastewaterSCAN has numbers considered HIGH nationally even though the CDC site is considering them LOW. (🙄): https://ibb.co/C7z96yy
Wastewater levels are LOW compared to the first Omicron wave but HIGH considering that we should not be experiencing this increased sickness in July at all.
In our HHS region, Region 3, we have quite a few stations reporting quickly rising numbers. Harrisburg and Chester rising steadily and now surpasses the highest stations in Maryland, which has been consistently high.: https://ibb.co/R7JXkND
Our region average has been going vertical in wastewater concentration in late June.: https://ibb.co/fSTXbPB
In Region 2 (NY/NJ), the Oakhurst Station has been going vertical and other stations steadily and slowly rising.: https://ibb.co/FzJL7BV
Again, extra caution by using quality air filteration (either by CR box or by a KN95, N95 or better respirator) will keep these numbers down for the summer.
Keep cool and have a GREAT WEEK! 🔥🔥🔥
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA
#KP3 #LB1 #DeFLiRT #S31Del #KP41
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!
I hope you're enjoying the beautiful weather today!! ☀️☀️☀️
__________
VOCs
Nationally, nothing really new as far as VOCs go, we still have KP.2.3 in the lead, with a very tight race for the top 5 slots on the leaderboard in random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/gjbxpV0
According to Sato Lab in Japan, KP.2.3 is blazingly fast (along with LB.1) and bears a mutation (S:S31del) that makes it immune resistant and more infectious.: https://x.com/SystemsVirology/status/1806464518270369889
Numbers rising already worldwide and in the US from these S-deletion mutations.
In PA, the LB.x.y set seems to be more successful than the KP.2.3 set. This doesn't mean we don't have both out there, but LB.1.7 is showing up more often in recent random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/s3VTsy4
KP.3.1 is also very fast, and the extremely tight race shows that this is a result of mutations that are ALL very fast and infectious.
In NY/NJ, LB.1.7 is at the top of the chart just like in PA. KP.2.3 is right behind it and other fast mutations are gaining, like LP.1.: https://ibb.co/HGDhcjm
Walgreens still has a huge portion of the lower 48 states in the highest positivity growth bracket.: https://ibb.co/1b64Kns
In PA, we're stable right now but numbers are comparable to a mid-winter illness level, and these are only the reported cases.: https://ibb.co/k8VV8Cv
__________
Wastewater
The PAWSS has a lot of increases across the board. Moderate increases in Allegheny, Indiana, Centre, Cumberland, MontCo and around Philly, and Delaware Cos. Some HIGH increases in Monroe Co.: https://ibb.co/JkWTcfh
🔴Vaccines with newer mutation formulas should be available in mid-July for Novavax and earliest Fall for mRNA (Moderna/Pfizer etc.). Moderna has announced they're interested in a JN.1 formula along with Novavax and is looking to start getting in arms in August. Pfizer is still leaning toward KP.2.
The FDA needs to be pushed to get these to kids BEFORE THE SCHOOL YEAR STARTS.
Please get you and your kid(s) vaccinated. Don't be That Guy.
Get whatever is available, as they'll definitely be more effective than year-old XBB shots.
If you have a strong reaction to the mRNA shots though you might want to switch to Novavax (I did!!) but it's usually harder to find.
That's all I have this week as not much has changed even though numbers are still going up. Consider wearing a quality respirator in crowds and in places with poor ventilation.
I hope you have a BEAUTIFUL day and a healthy early summer! ☀️☀️☀️
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA
#KP3 #LB1 #DeFLiRT #S31Del
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!
I hope you are staying safe under this unusually hot weather. Please drink lots of water, pace yourself in the hottest hours of the day, and avoid caffeine! 🔥☀️🔥
If you must keep windows and doors closed during peak heat hours, run that Corsi-Rosenthal box to keep air clean.
Extremely hot weather precautions (closing doors and windows) are diametrically opposed to SARS2 control, much like midwinter heat retention and smoke prevention, but source control is still possible!
__________
VOCs
Nationally, KP.3.x.y and LB.x.y are the latest fastest variants. KP.2.3 is at the top, just barely, at almost 6% of national random sequencing, and KP.2 is already on the way out from the upcoming takover of KP.3 and LB.x variants.: https://ibb.co/fSZ7WRn
KP.3.1 is already in 3rd place and KP.3.3 already in fourth. KP.3.x and LB.x already, together, makes the largest proportion of random sequencing.
We are collectively too slow to react usefully to this virus as of now. National numbers are starting to go up from the sheer immune escape of these latest variants.
IN PA, lots of troublesome variants here already. KP.2.3 and KP.3.1 already tied for FIRST place here at 13% of random sequencing each. LB.1 and LB.1.7 right behind.: https://ibb.co/ccCmVbX
:coronavirus: :coronavirus: :coronavirus: Please consider masking up with a quality respirator in crowded places so these immune-escaping variants are kept at bay....ESPECIALLY during intense heat which makes keeping doors and windows open harder, and BEFORE JN.1/KP.3 vaccinations are available. :coronavirus: :coronavirus: :coronavirus:
In NY/NJ, LB.1.7 already at the top of the chart with a solid 10% of share. These new mutations are FAST due to immune escape. Practice source control to have a healthy Summer!: https://ibb.co/QNj7YJy
The latest CDC NOWCAST reflects all this...it shows KP.3 at a solid 33% of new infections. :coronavirus::coronavirus:Together with LB.1, these two are estimated to at least HALF of current infections.:coronavirus::coronavirus:: https://ibb.co/6RCStZs
We can see the impact of immune escape variants in other metrics, too.
Walgreens already has a majority of Eastern and Southern states at the highest change in positivity ratio from the previous week, and has for a while now.: https://ibb.co/XjDY2DP
In PA, Walgreens has a third of new tests showing positives. Testing is horribly low but the proportion is going up every week, and more tests will probably be done as people feel they need them done.: https://ibb.co/rvvB06B
CDC Early indicators show definite increases in test positivity and esecially ED visits, up 12.6% since last week!: https://ibb.co/0MzPY8q
CDC has ED visits growing nationally. This is due to immune escape of new variants. PA is showing moderate increases in ED visits due to SARS2 diagnoses. The overall level is still minimal, but new variants will keep bumping these numbers up of people ignore source control.: https://ibb.co/3mnzXgj
You can see the obvious advantage KP.3 has over older variants in this chart (the leftmost variant): https://ibb.co/BgjGkTr
Chart by virologist Benji Murrell.: https://ibb.co/vHj7RKQ
Sadly, we remain one of the States reporting the highest proportional deaths in a three-month period. 225 people have passed in the past 3 months from COVID.: https://ibb.co/G0phq72
__________
Wastewater
WastewaterSCAN has national levels in SARS2 as HIGH in all regions.: https://ibb.co/jJSHb4V
In PA, lots of stations showing moderate increases in SARS2 material and increases are especially high in central Westmoreland Co. Pitt and Philly remain stable. No doubt this is due to newer immune-escaping variants.: https://ibb.co/qxfwg59
In our region, individual stations are showing medium and low levels individually but with a definite trend of many stations toward "high" levels.: https://ibb.co/tQFq4sZ
As immune-evasive mutations continue to permeate the State it's going to get increasingly important to perform some sort of source control. Mask up, stay home when sick, and run those Corsi-Rosenthal boxes if you need that A/C on!! 🔥☀️🔥
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA
#FLuQE #Q493E #NOWCAST
#KP3 #LB1
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Good Muggy Morning SARS2PAians! ☁️💐☁️
I hope you are having a safe Spring!
The top news lately are the newest variants causing country-wide summer waves including Spain: https://ibb.co/hRpvjt5
and Portugal: https://ibb.co/khTtyJX
They are KP.3.x.y and LB.x.y.
These new immune evasive variants are filling up hospitals and causing notable increases in deaths.
KP.3 is now the variant "grandfather" that is the fastest, the most immune evasive, and the most easily bound to cells. Specifically, the most watched upcoming variant is its grandchild, KP.3.1.1.
The newest variants that have a very good chance of causing a sizeable increase in numbers, if not a full blown-out wave, are variants of KP.3 that already have immune evasive mutations (FLuQE) but also have an advantageous specific spike deletion (S:S31del).
These new and fastest variants are immune evasive to BOTH current vaccinations, AND prior infections.
Nationally, KP.2 is still just barely at the top of the leaderboard. KP.2.3 is right behind it, already a variant that is being watched.: https://ibb.co/p0d8G8n
🔴KP.3.1.1 is absolutely blazing fast and burning through Spain, Portugal and other countries, and is part of KP-DEL31.
_____
NOTE: "KP-DEL31" is gonna be my nickname for it, not variant hunters or virologists. Just to call it something easily condensed and recognizeable for now. They might decide on a different nickname soon. These names are just for convenience. (You don't call your cousin Mister James Robert Smith every time, do you? You call him JimBob or Smitty. It just makes talking easier.)
_____
I've highlighted FLiRT in pink on the national screenshot but I'll drop it soon as KP-DEL31 becomes more and more relevant.
There's no specific results for PA on the Tableau site. Probably not enough testing here.
In NY/NJ, I've highlighted KP-DEL31 in green on the NY/NJ leaderboard, and as you can see, all the top 5 variants there have this very important spike deletion. But KP.3.1.1 is the variant to keep eyes on.: https://ibb.co/Jcv0rF7
KP.3.1.1 is already found (in only a few days!) in TX, NY, CA, CO, NJ, WA, and VA.
🔴If you've dropped wearing respirators for now you might want to reconsider putting them back on as KP.3.1.1 makes gains and spring moves along.
________________
Wastewater has returned to HIGH levels in the Eastern and Southern states. KP.2, KP.3 and LB.x.y variants are working together on driving this.: https://ibb.co/0nHqQPS
In our region, specifically testing in Maryland is showing a return to higher levels.: https://ibb.co/99MSpy0
The PA wastewater dashboard is showing LARGE increases in Philly, and sizeable increases in Centre and Indiana counties.: https://ibb.co/0J14Tty
MASK UP, oh my Philly ❤️️!
________________
Whoa I had a whole angry thing typed out here and juuuuuuust checked back on Twitter, and Dr. Eric Topol wrote just 2 hrs ago that the US FDA has changed its decision for the upcoming vaccine base!!: https://ibb.co/xzB6GVb
The newest mRNA vaccines will be based on KP.2 and NOT JN.1!
This is a wise decision and fantastic news!!
This will certainly better prepare us for Summer.
(NOTE: **Novavax** will have a JN.1 based booster. Novavax is completely different as it has proven effective through multiple years with ONE base so that vaccine will probably not have to be changed as often.)
_______________
🔴Even with vaccines, there are always other things we can do to practice source control!
keep those windows OPEN
wear a respirator
keep the air clean
move meetings outside
work from home
build a Corsi-Rosenthal box
stay home if you are sick!
Continue to have a great and safe Spring!! 💐💐💐
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA #Pennsylvania #PA
#FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t
#FLuQE #Q493E
#KP2 #KP3 #LB1 #Moderna #Pfizer #Novavax
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
Update for 6/7/2024!
Good morning SARS2PAians!
I hope you're enjoying this beautiful Spring 💐💐💐
__________
VOCs
Nationally, KP.2 barely holding on to the top slot on the leaderboard at 8.22%. Fast, immune-evasive LB.1 is directly behind and most likely will take over in a week or less.: https://ibb.co/Q6ZZhsN
Immune-evasive KP.3 is also on the way up.
In PA, KP.3 and LB.1 has not been found in hte (horribly low) random testing we're doing. LB.1 did show up earlier, and "not finding" doesn't mean it's not around, but to not find such a fast variant in qualtities to put it on the PA board is promising.: https://ibb.co/ZN8Nrfp
In NY/NJ, LB.1 has easily displaced KP.2 for the top slot, with LB.1 at almost 17% of share and KP.2 behind at 9%.: https://ibb.co/mRR03KB
Lots of new mutations added in the past few weeks to the latest CDC NOWCAST.: https://ibb.co/b7y1mXb
Even on here, KP.3 is shown to be predicted as the TOP circulating variant, with KP.2 sandwiched between it and also-new-and-evasive LB.1.
Due to antigenic drift/effective ACE2 binding/communal laxness in prevention, this is probably going to bump numbers up for the summer.
Eevn though numbers a still low nationally, Walgreens COVID19 dashboard has already had large increases of positivity in a large number of States.: https://ibb.co/WHcFZK3
Pennsylvania has been considered at a large increase for quite a while already on there.: https://ibb.co/mc0CbPq
JN.1.50, KP.3.2 and KP.2.3 (yes those numbers are weirdly reversed) are also very fast, very immune-landscape-elusive mutes to watch, too.
I hope that I'm wrong but it seems that we'll be drowning in a soup of fast varaints for the fall/winter. My opinion only: This winter might be...something else...if the wrong vaccine formula is used.
__________
Wastewater
Though numbers in PA are still relatively low, WastewaterSCAN has SARS2 levels at MEDIUM. Maryland/DC is starting to tick upward fast.: https://ibb.co/55JvPbt
PA WSS has McKean County showing heavy SARS2 material increases in wastewater, and moderstew increases in Philly.: https://ibb.co/8Pdz6MR
__________
Vaccine News
The most reliable viral geneticists and epidemiologists I'm watching has already said a JN.1 vaccine will be outdated.: https://ibb.co/vBgbr2g
🔴THIS IS NOT DUE TO VACCINES BEING INHERENTLY INEFFECTIVE. Do not spread that disnformation.
This is due to the superfast antigenic drift of SARS2, and also us being too slow to communally react to this virus. If a JN.1 vaccine is produced it will hardly effect any useful protection at all.: https://ibb.co/1dFTRKm
The fast rate which this virus gains mutations is absolutely not slowing down, and will most likely never slow down.
It is VITAL that corporate science (as in, the corporate producers of vaccines) keep up with mutations and if need be, drop outdated mutation bases FAST to change formula to one that will actually work effectively.
It is NECESSARY to even being the conversation now with KP.2.
We cannot afford to be slow in considering vaccination formulas or distribution.
Keeping the air clean is decidedly easier in better weather, but if numbers are going up in your area, PLEASE use some sort of source control. Wear a quality respirator, stay home if you are sick, test repeatedly with symptoms!
Enjoy your Spring and keep that air clean! 💐💐💐
#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA #Pennsylvania #PA #FLiRT #F456L #R346T
#spike_f456l #spike_r346t
#Q493E
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !
update for 5/31/2024!!
Good Morning SARS2PAians!
I hope you are enjoying your Spring! 💐💐💐
I just have an update on VOCs as I have to run out the door, and also not much has changed in terms of numbers yet. I'm so sorry this is all I have time for right now.
Nationally, for VOCs, we have a lot of fast movers that might bump up numbers for the summer as they have elsewhere globally already. Looks like the fastest are going to be KP.3 and especially LB.1.: https://ibb.co/wzcJ05J
While we don't have any immensely increased numbers so far, nationally they are starting to slowly rise, and source control will be needed as these immune evasive and FAST variants catch on.
In PA, we have quite a few of the FLiRT variants (in pink) and upcoming immune evasive variants (in teal) coming up. Numbers for these new variants are low but might rise steadily as the spring goes on.: https://ibb.co/h1XS2hP
IN NY/NJ, LB.1 is already at the top of the chart 👀 and the speed of its rise is incredible considering how fast current variants are already!: https://ibb.co/dpRDrPd
Watching these new mutations will give a big clue on when to tighten up source control.
In the meantime, keep that air clean and just for future safety, keep a stock of N95s handy for H5N1 as it spreads through more and more domesticated animal species, the lastest which is alpacas. This is starting to make epidemiologists and viral geneticists kinda nervous.
Insist on full disclosure of animal health/testing/sequencing from farms. You might consider non-dairy milk, or maybe ultra-pasteurized milk. Another option is UHT, shelf-stable milk in sterile packaging (like Parmalat).
:coronavirus: DO NOT CONSUME RAW MILK OR UNDERCOOKED MEAT.:coronavirus:
Hope to have more time to do this on Moday (but not sure) so have a great weekend and be safe! 💐💐💐
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t
Update for 5/24/2024!
Good morning SARS2PAians! (well, afternoon by the time I got all this ready)
I hope you are having a BEAUTIFUL and healthy day. 💐💐💐
_____
VOCs
Nationally, KP.2 is in the lead so far, easily displacng JN.1 variants.: https://ibb.co/JCWtxdr
KP.3 and LB.1 (DeFLiRT) are making FAST gains in the leaderboard, now up to around 5% each nationally.
They are still the top two successful variants that show great potential to take over from even KP.2.: https://ibb.co/kxHkfV1
🔴JN.1.50 is new, and was just designated on 5/18 and though genetically it's as fast as LB.1 and KP.3, it remains to be seen in meatspace how it will spread.
In PA, JN.1 still in the lead here in random sequencing at 20% and KP.2 behind it at 13%.: https://ibb.co/G7Nnft5
Unfortunately KP.3 has been found here. So we now have BOTH very fast DeFLiRT variants here for the summer, KP.3 and LB.1. Take care, keep windows open, clean the air, wear a quality respirator and be aware of social contacts. These two variants might push the numbers up this summer.
In NY/NJ, KP.2 in the lead and look at that LB.1....in second place at 10% of random testing already. Yikes. It's been making very fast gains for a while now there.: https://ibb.co/8xRfkkh
Some parts of Jersey have noticeable upticks of matarial concentraion on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/7STgtLZ
__________
Wastewater
Trying to get as much info as possible here since almsot everything useful is being discontinued. 🙄
SARS2 has been bumped up to MEDIUM nationally on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/Wf5MdxN
There are noticeable upticks starting to happen in the Harrisburg and Chester areas.: https://ibb.co/g3HQZp0
__________
Non-SARS2 Pathogens
Gastro pathogens Noro and Rotavirus are still in the HIGH category on WastewaterSCAN. Please wash hands carefully, wash fruits and veg, and be aware of kitchen cleanliness discipline to avoid cathing these bugs. Mostly because they're just gross 🤢
🔴Concerning H5N1 (HPAI, "bird flu"), we are NOT in flu season, so seeing upticks for Influenza A is extremely concerning.
This is what the FluA graphs SHOULD look like now in a normal post-FLuA season.: https://ibb.co/X4Q8szS
H5N1 is an influenza A. It's been upgraded to MEDIUM on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/wKC300x
However, the online tool makes no differentiation between H5N1 and other types of FLuA. It also cannot tell live virus from inactivated virus or its fragments.
It's extremely telling, though, that the highest concentration of FluA is located exatly where herd breakouts have or are occuring, mostly in the middle of the country in the plains corridor.
To reduce the risk of contracting, transmlitting, or allowing H5N1/HPAI to mutate,
🔴🔴🔴DO NOT DRINK RAW MILK.🔴🔴🔴
I don't give a flying fart if it's legal to sell/buy here in PA. Do NOT be that guy. Do NOT encourage this pathogen to mutate and DO NOT endanger your own life or everyone else's by consuming raw or unpasteurized dairy products.
Use caution in handling raw dairy products, especially meat and milk. Pasteurization has been proven to kill FluA and fluA is very sensitive to heat, but please use caution, fully cook raw meat, and use good sanitary habits when working with raw farm products.
As always, some method of source control is always good to help keep these pathogens in check whether they're just annoying and gross OR have a high kill rate.
I hope you stay safe, enjoy the open windows in Spring, and ARE NOT DRINKING RAW MILK.
Have a great week!!
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t
Good morning SARS2PAians!
I hope your very cloudy annd humid Spring is going well. 💐💐💐
The only thing I have right now are VOC visuals.
Nationally, KP.2 in the lead at 12% of random sequencing. The FLiRT variants are not far behind and VERy fast variants KP.3 and LB.1 are still making fast gains even after only a few days.: https://ibb.co/309Ygcj
In PA, classic JN.1 is still at the lead here. We don't have KP.3 here but we do have fast mover LB.1 which is now over 5% of random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/CpyDWkH
IN NY/NJ, immune evasive variants LB.1 already at over 7% of testing and KP.3 almost at 5%.: https://ibb.co/LZ1hZM7
__________
Wastewater
Biobot has released a statement saying they are stopping keeping up their COVID-19 wastwater visuals. There's still WastewaterSCAN but only three sheds are on there.: https://ibb.co/2tYPPcm
https://biobot.io/from-raw-data-to-actionable-insights-biobots-evolution-of-public-data-sharing/
This is another removal of a GREAT tool that helped everyone stay informed, and gave a heads-up when to buckle down on source control issues.
A very good potential replacement for Biobot is Iowa Covid-19 Tracker and I'll start to try to get familiar with that as soon as I can sit down to do it so the vizzes might look very different soon.: https://iowacovid19tracker.org/
I hope to have more info on Friday, and until then have a GREAT week and safe Spring! 💐💐💐
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t
Update for 5/17/2024!
Good morning SARS2PAians!
I hope you are staying healthy during this very cloudy and rainy period! 🌦🌧☁️☔️
VOCs
Nationally, the FLiRT group (in pink on the graph), which is the first group that can cause a rise in summer numbers in a few wweeks, is still pushing closer and closer to the top of the chart. FLiRT variant KP.2 is already at almost 10% nationally in random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/Wxtgg1N
The second group (KP.3, LB.1, JN.1.32) that can push up summer numbers is not far behind and is FAST.
To complicate issues even more:
It's been advised where I'm cruising around for this info that the second group is not only VERY immune-evasive to current variant antibodies, but also returning to a more lung-based symptom set rather a gut-based set. JN.1 is mainly centered in the gut, which makes wastewater monitoring more sensitive and more accurate.
A return to a more lung-based centered illness is a bad thing and will make wastewater testing not-as-sensitive as it was for JN.1 relatives.
In PA, KP.2 is already in the lead of random sequencing results at 16% of share.: https://ibb.co/6XpWGfF
We already have LB.1 here so it's oging to very important to track this fast moving and immune evasive variant.
In NY/NJ, KP.3 and LB.1 in fifth and sixth places on the leaderboard. Their rise is increasing quickly as they're up to over 4% of varaint share, up from 3% a week ago.: https://ibb.co/9gsdZ0W
A 1% increase in such a short amount of time in a field of already very fast variants is noteworthy. In a race of thoroughbreds, varaints like this are the potential triple-crown winners.
__________
Wastewater
Wastewater levels are still very good (low.) Nationally we're at the same level as last year but not low enough to match 2021 yet.: https://ibb.co/Y3Tv51h
In PA, not much to say. EVERYONE is smashing it. Bucks county area a bit higher than naitonal levels and trending upwards. PLEase use precaution and some sort of source control so these numbers don't go back up.: https://ibb.co/hd2FcNh
__________
That's all I have this morning, so I hope you have a GREAT week! I apologize for not updating consistently as data is harder to obtain and H5N1 takes over the foreground of virology conversations (as it should, understandable)!!
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t
Update for 5/13/2024!
Good Morning SARS2PAians!
I hope your chilly Spring is going well! 💐💐💐
Just a very quick VOC update as there is absolutely nothing really updated to work with this week 🙄
While numbers are still very very low right now (which is great), the virology world and variant hunters are watching a few new mutations lately.
The two most important coming up are KP.3 and LB.1.
Globally, KP.3 is already in 2nd place, very high in places like the UK and Australia, easily growing past previous JN.1 incarnations AND FLiRT variants.: https://ibb.co/ch19ph8
It carries a very rare mutation (S:Q493E) that enhances its fitness and will enable it to grow much fater than previous JN.1 incarnations.: https://ibb.co/9vx0JTn
It is IMMUNE EVASIVE compared to all current acquired immunity, both by vaccination and infection. It's fast enough and evasive enough to probably bump up numbers in June or July.
In the US, KP.3 is in relatively low numbers right now: https://ibb.co/XpRF6D6
BUT KP.3 is growing very quickly as the previous variant snapshot show when put together:
4/01-- 0.34%
4/05-- 0.44%
4/12-- 0.63%
4/19-- 1.17%
4/25-- 1.55%
5/03-- 1.64%
5/06-- 2.23%
5/12-- 3.20%
(This is fast in a landscape that's already thoroughly saturated very very vast variants.)
In PA, variant sequencers have not seen KP.3 pop up yet (doesn't mean it's not here, sequencing and testing are soooooo loooow but at least it's not showing up on the leaderboard.): https://ibb.co/4YzwNFN
However, LB.1 (from the FLiRT group but with an important deletion {S:531del}) is another very fast variant that is probably enough to bump up numbers too.
The summer will probably be FLiRT + FLiRT children vs. KP.3 (nicknamed FLuQE) + FLuQE children.
Those two mutation classes together wil probably start pushing up numbers again in early June.
Unfortunately that's all I have for now as it's getting harder and harder to find updated info.
I hope your Spring continues to be healthy! 💐💐💐
#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t
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