#statstab #472 Practical Bayesian Inference in Neuroscience: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying
and Embrace the Distribution

Thoughts: Good intro to bayesian inference.

#bayesian #likelihood #tutorial

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.19.567743v2.full.pdf

Here's a new paper summarizing methods for evaluating whether the absence of a statistically significant difference (from a NHST) is actually no difference--test of equivalence, confidence interval bounds, likelihood ratios, Bayes factors, and Bayesian estimation. There's nothing new here, but it's a nice readable overview that might be worth citing for some audiences.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsbl.2025.0506?af=R

#Science #Statistics #Likelihood #BayesFactors

#statstab #445 What are credible priors and what are skeptical priors?

Thoughts: An excellent thread on prior elicitation by some of the big names in the field (frequentist and bayesian).

#priors #bayesian #bayes #likelihood #medicine #clinical #debate

https://discourse.datamethods.org/t/what-are-credible-priors-and-what-are-skeptical-priors/580

Ah yes, the groundbreaking 2018 #tutorial on "likelihood," where the real mystery is not statistical analysis, but navigating the dark arts of enabling #JavaScript and #cookies. 🍪🔍 Because who needs math when you can unravel the secrets of #browser #settings instead? 🙄
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2515245917744314 #likelihood #tech #humor #HackerNews #ngated

Introduction to the concept of likelihood and its applications (2018)

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2515245917744314

#HackerNews #Introduction #likelihood #applications #statistics #research #2018

#statstab #443 Dienes Bayes factor calculator

Thoughts: Dienes presents a different way to compute BFs using the sample data. But, this can be seen as an acceptable double-dipping.

#bayesian #bayesfactor #evidence #likelihood #guide

https://bencepalfi.shinyapps.io/Dienes_BF_calculator/

After doing very sophisticated* web searching, it seems that it is not uncommon typo, and I could not find a definition.

So, there seems to be an opening for introducing a new term. Maybe outside #Statistics, shall we talk about a #Likeligood Function in #WelfareEconomics?
Or does it describe a new equilibrium in #GameTheory, the one that is likely good?

#Likelihood

* 😂 😂 😅

I thought it was an innocent, unassuming typo.

But now I see a need to figure out whether "Likeligood estimation" is actually a thing...

#Statistics #RabbitHole #Likelihood

'Determine the Number of States in Hidden Markov Models via Marginal Likelihood', by Yang Chen, Cheng-Der Fuh, Chu-Lan Michael Kao.

http://jmlr.org/papers/v26/23-0343.html

#markov #bayesian #likelihood

#statstab #308 A Tutorial on Safe Anytime-Valid Inference [t-test]

Thoughts: Safe Anytime Valid Inferences (SAVI) are the future for frequentist stats. Since #253 I'm more convinced.

#SafeAnytimeValidInference #SAVI #evalues #likelihood #evidence #ttest

https://osf.io/mdbqe/

#statstab #301 Likelihood and the p-value Function

Thoughts: Plot idea by Fraser (2019): "the likelihood function and p-value function provide the basis for scientific judgments by an investigator"

#consonancecurve #pvaluefunction #likelihood #plot

https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2018.1556735

#statstab #296 The most important theory in statistics

Thoughts: Fisher revolutionised statistics, and the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) is the crown jewel.

#MLE #Fisher #statistics #stats #probability #likelihood

https://youtu.be/YevSE6bRhTo

#statstab #295 The Fallacy of the Null-Hypothesis Significance Test

Thoughts: "the [..] aim of a scientific experiment is not to precipitate decisions, but to make an appropriate adjustment in the degree to which one accepts, or believes, the hypothesis"

#NHST #Bayes #ConfidenceIntervals #pvalues #significance #testing #hypotheses #likelihood #critique #fallacy

http://stats.org.uk/statistical-inference/Rozeboom1960.pdf

'Approximate Information Tests on Statistical Submanifolds', by Michael W. Trosset, Carey E. Priebe.

http://jmlr.org/papers/v25/19-272.html

#likelihood #submodel #statistical

#statstab #253 Anytime-valid inference in N-of-1 trials

Thoughts: Are frequentists ready to talk about evidence? Safe Anytime Valid Inferences (SAVI) seem like the future.

#SafeAnytimeValidInference #SAVI #evalues #likelihood #evidence #nof1

https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.07353

{first of 2025 🥳}
#statstab #251 E-values

Thoughts: These seem like the impossible; they are generalizations of likelihood ratios (i.e., used for composite hypotheses), and can provide evidence for/against a hypothesis.

#evalues #evidence #likelihood

https://sas.uwaterloo.ca/~wang/files/e-review.pdf

#statstab #227 Parameterization of Response Distributions in {brms}

Thoughts: If you use #brms and can read mathematical notation (who can't, right?), this page will be useful.

#r #bayes #models #distributions #likelihood #stats

https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/brms/vignettes/brms_families.html

#statstab #224 Interim Analysis in Clinical Trials: The Role of the Likelihood Principle

Thoughts: Frequentist sequential design is tricky; so Bayesian & Likelihoodist approaches to the rescue!

#likelihood #bayesian #sequential #evidence #sample

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00031305.1987.10475458

A likelihood-based local search approach has been implemented in the new emplace_local program that enhances the speed and sensitivity of cryo-EM docking computations. #CryoEM #Docking #Likelihood https://t.co/BQETKrpnfZ

Reduced #Likelihood of #Hospitalization with #JN1 or #HV1 #SARS-CoV-2 #Variants Compared to #EG5 Variant, J Infect Dis.: https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiae364/7717186?utm_source=advanceaccess&utm_campaign=jid&utm_medium=email&nbd=25018031857&nbd_source=campaigner

JN.1 and HV.1 variants may be associated with a lower #risk of severe illness. The severity of #COVID19 may have attenuated as predominant circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages shifted from EG.5 to HV.1 to JN.1.