Lmst

#Bayesian analysis simplified (#BAYAS): our paper is out! We hope that many biologists & other users will find BAYAS helpful for experimental planning & data analysis. No programming or installation required. Will hopefully lead to reduction of lab animal numbers. #3R #bayes https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btaf276

🚀 New to Variational Inference?

Check out A Beginner’s Guide to VI — a hands-on tutorial from @pymc_labs & @PyData Virginia, led by @fonnesbeck

📺 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XECLmgnS6Ng

🎥 Learn VI, ADVI, Pathfinder, & real-world modeling tips from Chris.

#Bayesian #PyMC #ML #MCMC

Briahna Joy Grey and Cory Doctorow
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/867-bad-faith-71674279/
#scifi - Capitalist Store Dedications / #plug / #patronage / #monetization

selections from Little Brother
. . . yet another instruction manual for Big Brother . . .

“But what if I decreed that from now on, every time you went to evacuate some solid waste, you’d have to do it in a glass room perched in the middle of Times Square and you have to be buck naked.” (pg. 116)

“the human condition is dignified by privacy”

“taking a picture was either piracy . . . or terrorism (in a public place)”

Paradox of the False Positive
[‘(just?) one string of many’] #Bayesian
“the Department of Homeland Security had set itself up to fail badly”

the Universal Machine can do anything - the favela Xbox hack, ParanoidXBox, Xnet ( #USkillPirates )
“ #chaff “ – Bayesian Camouflage (pg. 169)
“never underestimate the determination of a kid who is time-rich and cash-poor”
“all I had to do was convince everyone else to use it too” #EFF

[compare twisted logics now in vogue: not a bloke = average so no reproduction.
spam out normal = the 1% - according to SWEspayson swap pryting]

#statstab #360 Bayes Factor Design Analysis {bfda}

Thoughts: Sample size planning is confusing at first with Bayesian. But BFDA is the quick answer.

#bfda #bayesian #bayesfactor #samplesize #power #errorrate

https://shinyapps.org/apps/BFDA/

#statstab #357 Uncertainty Estimation with Conformal Prediction

Thoughts: Haven't parsed this properly but maybe be an interesting discussion point. How best to quantify uncertainty?

#conformalprediction #bayesian #confidenceintervals #uncertainty

https://m-clark.github.io/posts/2025-06-01-conformal/

Barbara W. Sarnecka: "Why I love Bayesian statistics for developmental research"

https://www.apadivisions.org/division-7/publications/newsletters/developmental/2018/07/bayesian-statistics

#bayesian #statistics

Rewarding animals to accurately report their subjective #percept is challenging. This study formalizes this problem and overcomes it with a #Bayesian method for estimating an animal’s subjective percept in real time during the experiment @PLOSBiology https://plos.io/3HaxiuB

Two examples of how contextual information can bias visual perception. Top: Luminance illusion created by shadows (source: https://persci.mit.edu/gallery/checkershadow). Square B looks brighter than square A but has the same luminance, i.e., they have identical grayscale values in the picture. Bottom: Perception of object motion is biased by self-motion. The combination of leftward self-motion and up-left object motion in the world produces retinal motion that is up-right. If the animal partially subtracts the optic flow vector (orange dashed arrow) generated by self-motion (yellow arrow) from the image motion on the retina (black arrow), they may have a biased perception of object motion (red arrow) that lies between retinal and world coordinates (green arrow).

#statstab #350 Communicating causal effect heterogeneity
By @matti

Thoughts: Cool guide on properly communicating uncertainty in effects.

#bayesian #uncertainty #ggplot #r #brms #tidybayes #heterogeneity

https://vuorre.com/heterogeneity-uncertainty/

'On Consistent Bayesian Inference from Synthetic Data', by Ossi Räisä, Joonas Jälkö, Antti Honkela.

http://jmlr.org/papers/v26/23-1428.html

#bayesian #privacy #inference

🤔 Should one meta-analyze a single study?

☝️🤓 It turns out this makes sense in certain cases - if you're looking for predictions ("MAP priors"). In the particular case of a single study, there are also close links to power priors and bias allowance models. Have a look:
➡️ https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.15502
(joint work with @friede1 )

#Bayesian #MetaAnalysis #MedStatGoe

https://aeon.co/essays/no-schrodingers-cat-is-not-alive-and-dead-at-the-same-time

This is a pretty good article for showing how confused the interpretation of QM is. And its a good article to understand why i personally side with Bohm and Bell in thinking the pilot wave theory is the one most reasonable to believe. Because the pilot wave theory has the following quality. The theory is a mapping from initial position at time t=0 to final position at time t=1...Its deterministic, but our knowledge of the initial condition is not
#quantum #bohm #bayesian

#statstab #346 Jeffreys-Lindley paradox

Thoughts: I like this short explanation of the "paradox" of why frequentist and bayesian inference can differ.

#paradox #frequentist #bayesian #inference #bayesfactor #pvalue #explanation

https://michael-franke.github.io/intro-data-analysis/jeffreys-lindley-paradox.html

What the report on the sinking of the #Bayesian boils down to was that the yacht was unseaworthy when it was built. Stupidly tall mast was just a vanity project - tragedy

Die Luxusyacht „Bayesian“ sank im Gewittersturm vor Sizilien. Der vorläufige Untersuchungsbericht läst eine klare Ursache für den Untergang vermuten. Wirklich?
#Bayesian #Luxusyacht #Schiffsuntergang #Seenot #Segelyacht #Superyacht

https://floatmagazin.de/leute/was-in-der-schicksalsnacht-an-bord-der-bayesian-geschah/

#Bayesian #Γιοτ Ακραίοι άνεμοι προκάλεσαν το ναυάγιο του «Bayesian» στη Σικελία https://www.zougla.gr/kosmos/apo-akraious-anemous-vythistike-to-polyteles-giot-bayesian-sti-sikelia/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon

Britische Experten enthüllen: Die Luxusjacht „Bayesian“ kenterte vor Sizilien durch extreme Winde 🌬️⚓. Trotz „unsinkbar“-Ruf war sie bei 130 km/h Wind instabil. 7 Tote, darunter Besitzer Mike Lynch. Bergung pausiert nach tödlichem Unfall bei Taucharbeiten 🤿⚠️. #Bayesian #YachtUnglück #Sizilien #MaritimeSafety #newz

https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Britische-Experten-nennen-Gruende-fuer-Untergang-der-Luxusjacht-Bayesian-article25769235.html

Wie viele unsinkbare Schiffe liegen eigentlich aktuell versunken auf dem Grund der Ozeane? Ich frage für eine Bayesian...
#Bayesian #Titanic #unsinkbar

Vorläufiger Bericht: Luxusjacht "Bayesian" sank wegen extremen Winds

Bei dem Untergang der "Bayesian" vor Sizilien kamen im vergangenen Jahr sieben Menschen ums Leben. Nun gibt ein vorläufiger Bericht Hinweise auf die Unglücksursache der Luxusjacht, die eigentlich als "unsinkbar" galt.

➡️ https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/bayesian-bericht-unglueck-100.html?at_medium=mastodon&at_campaign=tagesschau.de

#Bayesian #Schiffsunglück