Lmst

2 CIBC: Headline #inflation also increased by 0.1%, also tick below forecasters’ predictions. In year-over-year terms, headline and core came in at 2.4% and 2.8% respectively. Core #goods #prices were subdued in the month showing little sign of direct #tariff impact again. 🧵 #CPI #usecon

1 CIBC: Despite elevated #tariffs, there were no major signs of sticker #prices rising with #US #inflation coming in soft in May. Core #CPI rose by 0.13% m/m in the month, below expectations of a 0.3% gain, and the three-month annualized core CPI fell four ticks to 1.7%. 🧵 #usecon

When you lack data due to self-imposed budget and staffing restrictions, why not estimate economic numbers—

/2 of 2

#USA #USeconomy #USecon #economics #trump #trumponomics

(Bloomberg)

The issue, Englander says, has to do with the BLS's birth-death adjustment - which estimates the net number of jobs created or destroyed by new business creations ('births') and losses from closing businesses ('deaths'). Because NFP is reported on a monthly basis, the BLS ends up largely estimating the birth-death figure based on a model. It can't directly survey openings/closures because it takes time for new businesses to actually be captured in Current Employment Statistics.
More complete data on openings/clo-sures does exist - but always with a lag.
The BLS uses the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for its revisions. But there's also the the Business Employment Dynamics (BED), which the bureau does not currently use.
Both of these - QCEW and BED - take a while to come out, much longer than the monthly cadence with which the BLS publishes its initial NFP numbers.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

And so, when the initial NFP estimate gets compared with the more comprehensive and longer-term CQEW data, you get revisions. Big ones. Based on BED data (which is more up to date than QCEW) at the moment, Englander estimates that:
"Available QCEW data extend through Q4-2024, while BED data extend only through Q3. But Q2 and Q3-2024 BED data show exceptionally weak employment gains at newly formed firms over that period. The BLS birth-death adjustment assumed that roughly 100k new jobs were being created every month by new firms minus closing firms, while BED data for Q2 and Q3-2024 showed that more jobs were lost to firms shutting down than were created by new firms. The gap during those two quarters between NFP and BED is more than 100k jobs per month on average. We suspect that this

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

on average. We suspect that this exaggerated birth-death adjustment explains some but not all of the gap."
To fix the issue, the BLS could try to survey actual closing and opening firms. But of course, that would mean additional resources - and lots of them (since you need to call up repeatedly to make sure the firms are actually closed, and not just failing to respond). Based on this week's news, it doesn't seem like the BLS is getting additional staffing anytime soon.
Maybe the US could devise a better database for tracking businesses creation/ destruction?? But again, large-scale government projects for the purposes of creating more transparency aren't exactly popular right now either.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

So in the meantime, traders, investors, economists, Social Security recipients, or just anyone who wants to know what's going on in this country, are left to grapple with whatever data they can get and make their own judgments of its accu-racy. The risk for the Fed is that it ends up having fewer and fewer reliable data sets to base its decisions on, or starts favoring certain data sets over others because of all these quality issues.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

(Bloomberg via Apple News)

“…headline or average numbers might not be totally reflective of reality.”

/1 of 2

#USA #USeconomy #USecon #economics #trump #trumponomics

(Bloomberg)

"We're out of time. The current commissioner announced a reduction of the sample by 5,000 households just to keep publishing the rest. Every time you reduce the sample, you lose detail," said Bill Beach, on an Odd Lotsepisode at the end of April.
Well, he was right. America's data disaster is definitely here.
This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for gathering and publishing America's most important economic numbers (think things like CPI, PPI and Non-Farm-Payrolls) said it was "reducing sample in areas across the country," noting that its "current resources can no longer support the collection effort."

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

The reduction is specifically in CPI, but it's indicative of the wider trend described by Beach. It's exactly the kind of thing that Beach, a former BLS com-missioner, was worried about. Sepa-rately, the Wall Street Journal reported that economists are also starting to question the quality of US economic data, with some of them spotting some interesting quirks.
In April's CPI, for instance, UBS economist Alan Detmeister calculated that 29% of price inputs had been made using different-cell imputation, which the BLS deploys when it's unable to directly observe a particular price. Imputing figures involves estimating a number based on comparable items, which means there's an element of judgment involved.
According to Detmeister, 29% of price inputs in the April CPI report were made using imputation, a proportion which the WSJ says is almost twice as high as usual.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

Things like CPI are incredibly important.
Trillions of dollars worth of inflation-pro-tected US government bonds (TIPs) are linked to them. Social Security payouts are based on them. And the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized its own "data dependency" when it comes to figuring out the path of monetary pol-icy.
But what if the data's not great?
The BLS's economic surveys have already been suffering from low response rates, which we've discussed with Beach and in this space before. That means headline or average numbers might not be totally reflective of reality. Reduced sample sizes are only expected to create more volatility in sub-indices, according to the BLS.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

And speaking America's economic data, it is of course Jobs Day, which means we have a live example of BLS statistics to think about. While the headline number came in higher than expected, previous months were revised lower - a pattern which has been repeating itself for a while now and which has prompted a lot of head-scratching.
Why can't the BLS get payrolls right?
Steven Englander over at Standard Chartered (and recent Odd Lots guest) has one theory. He argues that a lack of data means the BLS has been systematically overestimating the US labor market - by a lot. He estimates that the US added only 40,000 new jobs (seasonally-adjusted) between March and December 2024, compared to the 1.4 million reported in the official NFP figures.

In: “America’s Data Disaster Is Already Here” by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT, updated at June 6, 2025, 12:17 PM EDT

via Bloomberg in Apple News

3 CIBC: #Manufacturing #employment decreased by 8K in the month, more signs that #tradepolicy is having some effect, and #federalgovernment #joblosses continued #NFP #nonfarmpayrolls #jobsdata #usecon

1 CIBC: A spring chill came over the #US #jobmarket, with significant downward revisions to prior months. #Payrolls came in at a 139K pace in May, not far from expectations of 126K or the prior month reading of 147K 🧵 #NFP #jobsdata #employment #usecon

US #BLS: Total nonfarm #payroll #employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the #unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2% Friday’s #employmentdata was expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 125,000 in May #usecon

Go outside the US and Canada, and you'll see Chinese cars everywhere. And they're not terrible!

China is no longer the copycat nation, and hasn't been for awhile. The old legacy carmakers better take cover. While you’ll pry my cold dead hands off my turbo 6-speed stick before I'd ever buy one, their prowess in EVs is leapfrogging the west.

Hear that, Elmo? Your shit is STALE. Your stupid truck is a laughingstock and the biggest flop since ever. Oh and your rockets don't fucking work.

Chinese cars are already here. Polestar and some Buick models are made in China.

#USEcon
https://mstdn.social/@GottaLaff/114585698288391218

“ #Moody'sRatings slashed the United State's #creditrating down a notch on Friday, citing the #budgetary burden the government faces amid high #interestrates.” www.cnbc.com/2025/05/16/m... #US #TreasuryBonds #Bonds #USEconomy #usecon

Moody's downgrades United Stat...

3 CIBC: … #Tariffs were unlikely to have a major impact this month, being the first month of the administration’s global #tariff regime. #Businesses also had the means to be patient with healthy inventories and elevated margins #CPI #inflation #usecon

Bloomberg: #US #consumer #inflation likely accelerated in April as higher #tariffs on #Chinese #goods started to affect #prices. #CPI probably rose 0.3%, economists predict. The data are due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. #usecon #USEconomy

Briahna Joy Gray: Elon #Musk Discovers "#Magic #Money #Machines" and #MMT (w／ Fadhel #Kaboub )
#taxes #tarrifs #USecon #USpol #Trump #Africa #BRICS #budget #badfaith #BriahnaJoyGray #globalsouthperspectives
https://www.youtube.com/embed/2fvYYo8eBBY?si=nEjZExD8ky5dYPWm

#KshamaSawant: #Tariffs Are Not Good For The #WorkingClass (Nor is #Capitalism Itself)
"No matter what country we reside in, our enemies are the #rich, not other workers."
#uspol #usecon #economy #sawant #tarrif #workers #Obama #Biden #Trump #XiJinping #usa #china #UAW #Teamsters #recession #wealth #401k #nationalism #internationalism #layoffs
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/O4LtGYdhROs

Reversing capital flows is another serious concern for the #USA , as investment is shifting from American markets to international alternatives. Decreased foreign investment could stifle US economic growth.

/4 🧵

#USA #economics #USEcon #trump

This article sums up pros and cons of a weakening dollar well 🧐 , with special focus to how it will impact the agriculture sector.

https://www.profarmer.com/news/agriculture-news/economic-implications-u-s-dollars-decline-economy-ag-sector

One serious concern is #stagflation — persistently increased inflation coupled with low economic growth and increased unemployment.

Though lowering the dollar’s value will be a boon for US exports, it also threatens the dollar’s place as the world’s reserve currency as it invites economic turmoil to American consumers.

/3 🧵

#USA #economics #USEcon #trump

~ The Weaker U.S. Dollar Is MAGA's Silent Killer ~ (opinion)

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/03/31/the_weaker_us_dollar_is_magas_silent_killer_1100789.html

The Weaker U.S. Dollar Is MAGA's
Silent Killer
By Vladimir Signorelli
March 31, 2025

Today in “shocking but not surprising”: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/09/trump-market-manipulation/

tl;dr -- it sounds like Trump violated insider-trading laws on a mass scale. (Certainly the spirit of the laws; I suspect folks will endlessly litigate the letter of them.)

Awful but politically clever, letting his fans feel like they're in on his scheming.

#USPol #USEcon

#Stocks #markets have #fallen in the US & Asia over concerns about the negative #economic impact of #Trump's #tariffs.

The tech-heavy #Nasdaq was hit particularly hard, sinking 4%.

#Tesla shares fell by 15.4%, while artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant #Nvidia was down more than 5%. Other major tech stocks including #Meta, #Amazon and #Alphabet also fell sharply.

#USPol #USecon #auspol #PutinsPuppet #TrumpCoup #StockMarket #economy

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gdwgjkk1no

Don't want to show your GDP is plummeting? No problem. https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2 #jokes #usecon

Economist Chris Clarke points out on TikTok that US housing prices went up before immigration did. It was driven far more by increased work from home. #USEcon #Economics

Screenshot of a TikTok showing a bald man wearing dark-rimmed glasses and sporting a long beard. His image is overlaid on a chart showing housing price increases per year by three different sites, and the increased immigration per year.

Inflation meets expectations in June at 2.5% year-over-year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/26/pce-inflation-june-2024-.html

#uspol #usecon #uspolitics #economy #economics #econ #inflation

#usecon

Client Info