@glyph
I hear you.

My favourite (perhaps less jarring?) example is when a court declares they have found someone guilty, and that their threshold of guilt is "on balance of odds".

I look at the lawyers and the witnesses and realise that none of them has studied actuarial or probability mathematics. I wouldn't even trust them to understand a bet on the horses. For a scientist to watch them is like observing a cargo cult. Worse, I am sure, is for a scientist to find themselves on the receiving end of such a court.

I would offer the meagre consolation that you can see the feedback loops that drive them to behave so, where they think themselves to have free will.

#cybernetics #actuarial #odds #maths #math #statistics #science #scientificInquiry #systemsArchitecture #justice #law #policing #cargoCult

@Simon318ppm @urlyman

- I agree that:
- the fundamental question might be of almost existential importance to organised groups, and humans who wish to form and maintain them.
- finding common ground is essential, as is nurturing empathy in all parties.

- I sumbit that:
- enquiring minds might enjoy examining the findings (or what we might divine of them, for such firms, if they have any sense, have long since obfuscated their work) of Cambridge Analytica and their ilk: https://research.bangor.ac.uk/portal/files/35063914/2020_Psychological_Operations.pdf although please note that state-of-the-art circa 10 years ago may now be old hat.
- theologans are a fine source of information regarding tried-and-tested methods of creating inclusive "in-groups".
- lesser groups that depend upon cohesive thinking like cults, militaries, resistance or political groups, corporate entities, and so forth, are all worthy of consideration too. The real nuggets of gold are finding the "happy-clappy" groups that manage to absorb & bestow happiness upon their adversaries. Not sure where one finds such groups though (outside http://mathstodon.xyz obviously).

- I'd love to know if anyone has come across any "threads" that are interesting to pull at, or salient web-search terms that are a good start, in reading about such things.
- I'd be curious to know how folks (eg in NATO, CCP, etc) taking high-level geopolitical perspectives might view this problem.

#Peace #Love #War #Psychology #Groupthink #Totalitarianism #Advertising #ManufacturingConsensus #CambridgeAnalytica #DataAnalysis #Actuarial #Math #Maths #Data #BigData #Inclusion #EqualRights #HumanRights #Geography #Sharing #Conflict #Atrocities #Crime #Law #Government #Civics #Legal #CND #Theology

Check https://ActuarialPlayground.com to play with a visual and interactive actuarial cashflow model

A model exploration directly connected to it's calculang formulas. Manipulate formulas as well as parameters: the visualization reactively updates ⚡

Under '❓', some notes about calculang model and composition

Tell me if you want my 'recipes' to add different term insurance features (and different life insurance products entirely: such as annuities)

#actuarial #Visualization #Transparency #math

Unit-linked #actuarial modelling, proof of life

#math

@datum the #actuarial scientists are.... go figure, they are working for the #insurance companies 🤷‍♂️

anecdotally, the only person other than myself wearing a respirator at my local biotech/biopharma/digital health MeetUp in recent years was ... ...

<drumroll, please>

the #datascience director for a health insurance company.

The 2024 #Asian #Actuarial #Conference (#AAC), organized by the Actuarial Society of #HongKong (#ASHK), commenced today at the Ocean Park Marriott Hotel in Hong Kong. Themed “Exploring the #Future of #Insurance and Beyond: #Innovation, #International #Hubs, and Hong Kong,” this prestigious three-day #event has attracted over 1,000 participants, including internationally renowned #experts, #actuaries, and thought #leaders from #Asia and beyond. https://cnbusinessforum.com/2024-asian-actuarial-conference-kicks-off-in-hong-kong-focusing-on-insurance-innovation-and-growth/

Term insurance stresses #patterns #finance

For an intro to some #actuarial terminology, see my blog post: https://calcwithdec.dev/posts/actuarial-terms-i/ (followup soon!)

Got a good #statistician challenge for a fan of #actuary #actuarial studies, #age and #aging — how is this line best described?

It's all about a funny inverse relationship to "risk of death" (within a year) to the "added life expectancy" (bonus days of life) you can expect as you make it to your next birthday — while others around you do not.

Congratulations, you made through the Filter — you're one of the stronger ones, on principle.

There's clearly a well-known thing of "it's great to be 10", where the lifelong measurement of risk-of-dying is at its all-time lowest.

But, so, what's this flattening at age 20 through 30? Only seen easily in logarithmic scale … but in fact, if looking at women only, it goes *DOWN* slightly — what!?

I need help translating this into plain English too: Does it mean a 30-year-old woman is more sensible than a 21-year-old woman?

I can see how the teenage years filter very quickly, and the years after 30+ are normal. But how would you describe it?

San Diego condo owners hit by high wildfire insurance to get some relief from state.

Insurance charters are commissioned at the state level. The taxpayers of the state backstop the insurance industry.

The state’s fiscal base has incentivized poor developing and planning decisions for 50 years.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2023-03-30/san-diego-condo-owners-hit-by-high-insurance-costs-to-get-relief-from-the-california-fair-plan-deal

#riskmanagement #insurance #actuarial

Any other actuaries out there in the fediverse living that exam-prep life? I am now accepting any distractions from studying.

#actuary #actuarial

Get involved with the #IFoA #Sustainability Finance Newsletter https://mailchi.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=36026d1c718c63a68ae7c578a&id=ee142ffb7a&e=6237edde25. Volunteering opportunities for Digital co-lead and Digital team member. Be part of the growing #actuarial sustainability community, meet other like-minded individuals, and to help promote wider engagement and understanding of fundamental #environmental, #social and #governance concepts. Details at https://www.actuaries.org.uk/sustainability-volunteer-group-opportunities

@Cmastication out of curiosity, roughly what proportion of actuaries use R (/ python) at your work? Saw your post the other week on the bird site about users of analytics being ~80% basic, 16% power users, and 4% gurus. Does that translate to programmatic approaches by the actuaries? #rstats #actuarial

#Volterra integral equation in ruin theory, the study of the #risk of #insolvency in #actuarial science.

#Volterra integral equation in ruin theory, the study of the #risk of #insolvency in #actuarial science.