#Bayesian

2025-07-04

Dear colleagues working with Markov-chain Monte Carlo, especially for Bayesian posterior analysis:

Do you know of any Monte Carlo Standard Error (MCSE) estimators (or alternatively a p% MC error interval) for the *mean*, in the case where the posterior distribution may *not* have a finite variance (but it's known to have a finite mean)?

The paper by Vehtari & al. <doi.org/10.1214/20-BA1221> offers "efficiency" estimates for the mean in the case of non-finite variance, as well as a method to find MC error intervals for quantiles. But I can't find there a method for MC standard error or error intervals for the *mean* in the case of non-finite variance.

Cheers!

#bayesian #bayes #mcmc @avehtari@bayes.club @avehtari@mastodon.social

2025-07-03

Dear colleagues working with Markov-chain Monte Carlo: could you share any works that explore Markov-chain "convergence", and precision of mean estimates, with methods that use *quantiles* (or interquartile range, or median absolute deviation, or similar), rather than standard deviation and similar quantities?

Just to be clear, I don't mean estimation of quantiles, but estimation *by means of* quantiles.

Thank you!

#statistics #stats #probability #markovchain #mcmc #bayesian #bayes

Dr Mircea Zloteanu ☀️ 🌊🌴mzloteanu
2025-07-01

#377 To adjust, or not to adjust, for multiple comparisons

Thoughts: Not all-encompassing, but it does cover some relevant notions about multiplicity adjustments.

jclinepi.com/article/S0895-435

2025-07-01

A monument to the triumph of vanity over safety?

#Bayesian

2025-06-27

Gene expression is tuned by #epigenetic changes, which explains why, say, liver and skin cells have the same genome but are otherwise different. Here we introduce a
#Bayesian model for the analysis of epigenetic changes during development. epigeneticsandchromatin.biomed

Andrzej Wąsowski ☑️ 🟥AndrzejWasowski@social.itu.dk
2025-06-26
nemo™ 🇺🇦nemo@mas.to
2025-06-22

Die Luxusjacht "Bayesian" ist aus dem Meer geborgen! 🚢🌊 Nach langer Zeit wurde das spektakuläre Wrack erfolgreich geborgen. Mehr dazu im Artikel: n-tv.de/panorama/Luxusjacht-Ba #Luxusjacht #Bayesian #Bergung #News
#newz

2025-06-21

Sunken British superyacht Bayesian is raised from the seabed.

A superyacht that sank off the coast of the Italian island of Sicily last year has been raised from the seabed by a specialist salvage team.

Seven of the 22 people on board died in the sinking, including the vessel's owner, British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter.

The cause of the sinking is still under investigation.

mediafaro.org/article/20250620

#Italy #UK #Bayesian #MikeLynch

2025-06-21

Vor Sizilien: Luxusjacht "Bayesian" wird geborgen

Die Bergung des 56 Meter langen Segelschiffes hatte sich mehrfach verzögert. Nun ist es an der Oberfläche. Bei ihrem Untergang starben der britische Milliardär Mike Lynch und sechs weitere Insassen.

➡️ tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/b

#Bayesian #Schiffsunglück

float magazinfloatmagazin
2025-06-20

Das Wrack wurde jetzt vor Sizilien aus 50 Metern Tiefe an die Wasseroberfläche gehoben.

floatmagazin.de/leute/luxusjac

Datenschutzeinstellungen
2025-06-19

Interested in trying out *Bayesian nonparametrics* for your statistical research?

I'd be very grateful if people tried out this R package for Bayesian nonparametric population inference, called "inferno" :

<pglpm.github.io/inferno/>

It is especially addressed to clinical and medical researchers, and allows for thorough statistical studies of subpopulations or subgroups.

Installation instructions are here: <pglpm.github.io/inferno/index.>.

A step-by-step tutorial, guiding you through an example analysis of a simple dataset, is here: <pglpm.github.io/inferno/articl>.

The package has already been tested and used in concrete research about Alzheimer's Disease, Parkinson's Disease, drug discovery, and applications to machine learning.

Feedback is very welcome. If you find the package useful, feel free to advertise it a little :)

#rstats #bayesian #bayes #statistics #medicine #datascience

2025-06-18

'How good is your Laplace approximation of the Bayesian posterior? Finite-sample computable error bounds for a variety of useful divergences', by Mikołaj J. Kasprzak, Ryan Giordano, Tamara Broderick.

jmlr.org/papers/v26/24-0619.ht

#bayesian #posterior #laplace

2025-06-13

#Bayesian analysis simplified (#BAYAS): our paper is out! We hope that many biologists & other users will find BAYAS helpful for experimental planning & data analysis. No programming or installation required. Will hopefully lead to reduction of lab animal numbers. #3R #bayes doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics

2025-06-10

🚀 New to Variational Inference?

Check out A Beginner’s Guide to VI — a hands-on tutorial from @pymc_labs & @PyData Virginia, led by @fonnesbeck

📺 youtube.com/watch?v=XECLmgnS6N

🎥 Learn VI, ADVI, Pathfinder, & real-world modeling tips from Chris.

#Bayesian #PyMC #ML #MCMC

Einstein^Diogenes@UniverseLinkazuresaipan@defcon.social
2025-06-08

Briahna Joy Grey and Cory Doctorow
iheart.com/podcast/867-bad-fai
#scifi - Capitalist Store Dedications / #plug / #patronage / #monetization

selections from Little Brother
. . . yet another instruction manual for Big Brother . . .

“But what if I decreed that from now on, every time you went to evacuate some solid waste, you’d have to do it in a glass room perched in the middle of Times Square and you have to be buck naked.” (pg. 116)

“the human condition is dignified by privacy”

“taking a picture was either piracy . . . or terrorism (in a public place)”

Paradox of the False Positive
[‘(just?) one string of many’] #Bayesian
“the Department of Homeland Security had set itself up to fail badly”

the Universal Machine can do anything - the favela Xbox hack, ParanoidXBox, Xnet ( #USkillPirates )
#chaff “ – Bayesian Camouflage (pg. 169)
“never underestimate the determination of a kid who is time-rich and cash-poor”
“all I had to do was convince everyone else to use it too” #EFF

[compare twisted logics now in vogue: not a bloke = average so no reproduction.
spam out normal = the 1% - according to SWEspayson swap pryting]

Dr Mircea Zloteanu ☀️ 🌊🌴mzloteanu
2025-06-06

#360 Bayes Factor Design Analysis {bfda}

Thoughts: Sample size planning is confusing at first with Bayesian. But BFDA is the quick answer.

shinyapps.org/apps/BFDA/

Dr Mircea Zloteanu ☀️ 🌊🌴mzloteanu
2025-06-04

#357 Uncertainty Estimation with Conformal Prediction

Thoughts: Haven't parsed this properly but maybe be an interesting discussion point. How best to quantify uncertainty?

m-clark.github.io/posts/2025-0

2025-05-31
2025-05-27

Rewarding animals to accurately report their subjective #percept is challenging. This study formalizes this problem and overcomes it with a #Bayesian method for estimating an animal’s subjective percept in real time during the experiment @PLOSBiology plos.io/3HaxiuB

Two examples of how contextual information can bias visual perception. Top: Luminance illusion created by shadows (source: https://persci.mit.edu/gallery/checkershadow). Square B looks brighter than square A but has the same luminance, i.e., they have identical grayscale values in the picture. Bottom: Perception of object motion is biased by self-motion. The combination of leftward self-motion and up-left object motion in the world produces retinal motion that is up-right. If the animal partially subtracts the optic flow vector (orange dashed arrow) generated by self-motion (yellow arrow) from the image motion on the retina (black arrow), they may have a biased perception of object motion (red arrow) that lies between retinal and world coordinates (green arrow).
Dr Mircea Zloteanu ☀️ 🌊🌴mzloteanu
2025-05-23

#350 Communicating causal effect heterogeneity
By @matti

Thoughts: Cool guide on properly communicating uncertainty in effects.

vuorre.com/heterogeneity-uncer

Client Info

Server: https://mastodon.social
Version: 2025.04
Repository: https://github.com/cyevgeniy/lmst