#statstab #334 Workflow Techniques for the Robust Use of Bayes Factors
Thoughts: "We outline a Bayes factor workflow that researchers can use to study whether Bayes factors are robust for their individual analysis"
#Bayesian
I am trying to get a better sense of the literature on frequentist properties of Bayesian posterior distributions - both empirical and theoretical. Do you have any recommendations on stuff I should not miss? #stats #bayesian #LitReviews
'Determine the Number of States in Hidden Markov Models via Marginal Likelihood', by Yang Chen, Cheng-Der Fuh, Chu-Lan Michael Kao.
http://jmlr.org/papers/v26/23-0343.html
#markov #bayesian #likelihood
Die schwierige Bergung der Luxusjacht "Bayesian"
Eine riesige Luxusjacht sinkt im Mittelmeer: Das Unglück der "Bayesian", bei dem sieben Menschen starben, sorgte 2024 für Schlagzeilen und Spekulationen. Nun soll das Wrack geborgen werden, doch die Aktion verzögert sich.
I'd like to move the Git repo for my R protopackage ("Inferno") from GitHub to Codeberg. I was wondering if Codeberg offers (even paying of course) something similar to GitHub pages, by which I mean something like this: https://pglpm.github.io/inferno
From what I understand, the Codeberg pages <https://docs.codeberg.org/codeberg-pages> should be something equivalent – but I'm not fully sure. Is that correct? And does anyone have examples of Codeberg pages of R packages, just to see their functionality? I didn't manage to find any examples.
Cheers!
Environmental & Anthropogenic Influences On Fire Patterns In Tropical Dry Deciduous Forests
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-98051-7 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #wildfire #fire #busgfire #nvironmental #anthropogenic #influences #humanimpacts #deciduous #forests #firepatterns #spatialanalysis #tropical #ecosystems #management #tree #vegetation #spatiotemporal #hotspots #india #Satpura #tiger #reserve #ecogeography #geography #factors #parameters #drivers #temperature #precipitation #rainfall #model #modeling #bayesian #framework #slope #water #hydrology #infrastructure #mitigation #monitoring #preparedness #forestfires
https://open.substack.com/pub/thefuckingnews/p/real-trump-losing-in-the-polls-to?r=29jpsy&utm_medium=ios #MagicalTrump #RealTrump, so all you get with the #Bayesian factor is reality without the navigator, just the chaos; the illusion of randomness, the collapse and the sinking? An Emperor is no Deity, no constitution of the categories foundation, just an aimless clown deluded by the opium of his cult and the grandeur of its Nazi oligarchs. #Poll #Polls #NaziOligarchs #GreatLiars
#statstab #328 How to Assess Task Reliability using Bayesian Mixed Models
by @Dom_Makowski
Thoughts: Nice walkthrough using {brms}, with code, data gen, and plots.
#r #bayesian #mixedeffects #reliability #brms
https://realitybending.github.io/post/2024-03-18-signaltonoisemixed/
Observations Reveal Changing Coastal Storm Extremes Around The United States
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02315-z <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #extremeweather #coast #coastal #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #communities #publicsafety #climatechange #stormsurge #USA #flood #flooding #risk #hazard #damage #infrastructure #cost #economics #mitigation #insurance #sealevel #SLR #sealevelrise #Bayesian #hierarchical #framework #tideguage #tide #tidal #water #hydrology #hydrography #extremes #intensity #monitoring
'DAGs as Minimal I-maps for the Induced Models of Causal Bayesian Networks under Conditioning', by Xiangdong Xie, Jiahua Guo, Yi Sun.
http://jmlr.org/papers/v26/23-0002.html
#inference #causal #bayesian
Great to see this side of things being developed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-sFVfelEMg #stratigraphy #bayesian
Мифы о байесовском А/Б тестировании
Хабр, привет! Сегодня сравним два подхода к А/Б тестированию: байесовский и частотный. Обсудим сложности в интерпретации p-value. Посмотрим, как можно учитывать дополнительную информацию через априорное распределение. Остановим тест раньше времени и решим проблему подглядывания.
https://habr.com/ru/companies/X5Tech/articles/900032/
#abтестирование #ab_testing #data_science #data_driven #анализ_данных #аналитика #статистика #проверка_гипотез #байесовский_подход #bayesian
#statstab #319 Small Sample Size Solutions [book]
Thoughts: This should just be the default text for psychologists, as most research fits the "small sample" label.
#smallsample #book #guide #bayesian #permutation #sem #metaanalysis #nof1 #missingdata
Hot off the press - our report on gender disparities in grant seeking at the University of Cambridge (who applies for and who gets research grant funding).
The story:
1) The structural disparities are big (not so surprising)
2) The patterns of disparity at particular grades in particular disciplines go both ways (more surprising)
#ResearchPolicy
#ResearchGrants
#GenderDifferences
#Bayesian
If you like graphs, you'll probably like it!
PyMC is in Google Summer of Code 2025!
We're excited to be part of #GSoC2025 under @NumFOCUS If you're passionate about #Bayesian stats & #OpenSource, this is your chance to contribute to #PyMC!
📅 Deadline: April 8, 18:00 UTC
🔗 Apply now: https://www.pymc.io/blog/blog_gsoc_2025_announcement.html
New paper! We develop a #Bayesian statistical model to better predict future publishing counts by an institution w/ a particular publisher and the associated #APCs. This is important because any #OpenAccess negotiation depends heavily on the expected publication output.
It's important to emphasize that "realistic-looking" data does *not* mean "realistic" data – especially high-dimensional data (unfortunately that post doesn't warn against this).
If one had an algorithm that generated realistic data for a given inference problem, it would mean that that inference problem had been solved. So: for educational purposes, why not. But for validation-like purposes, use with uttermost caution and at your own peril.
The bayesEO package provides a Bayesian approach to post-processing ML-generated images. It refines class probabilities, removes outliers, and improves labeling for more accurate classification.
Байесовская собака: анализ пёсьего компаса
Ориентируются ли собаки по компасу, когда делают свои грязные дела? Оказывается — да! Если вам интересно, как можно это подтвердить в домашних условиях, используя компас, Байесовскую статистику и собаку (собака не включена), то добро пожаловать под кат.
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