"Bender and Hanna were writing The AI Con in late 2024, which they describe in the book as the peak of the AI boom. But since then the race to dominate the technology has only intensified. Leading companies including OpenAI, Anthropic and Chinese rival DeepSeek have launched what Google’s AI team describe as “thinking models, capable of reasoning through their thoughts before responding”.
The ability to reason would represent a significant milestone on the journey towards AI that could outperform experts across the full range of human intelligence, a goal often referred to as artificial general intelligence, or AGI. A number of the most prominent people in the field — including Altman, OpenAI’s former chief scientist and co-founder Ilya Sutskever and Elon Musk have claimed that goal is at hand.
Anthropic chief Dario Amodei describes AGI as “an imprecise term which has gathered a lot of sci-fi baggage and hype”. But by next year, he argues, we could have tools that are “smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across most relevant fields”, “can control existing physical tools” and “prove unsolved mathematical theorems”. In other words, with more data, computing power and research breakthroughs, today’s AI models or something that closely resembles them could extend the boundaries of human understanding and cognitive ability.
Bender dismisses the idea, describing the technology as “a fancy wrapper around some spreadsheets”. LLMs ingest reams of data and base their responses on the statistical probability of certain words occurring alongside others. Computing improvements, an abundance of online data and research breakthroughs have made that process far quicker, more sophisticated and more relevant. But there is no magic and no emergent mind, says Bender."
https://www.ft.com/content/9029cc1c-4a3f-42ca-9939-f3ef8e8336ae
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