Participatory voting is useful as a way to obtain early information; a “straw poll” provides public information about viewpoints in the room
#ParticipatoryVoting #voting #polling #facilitation #DecisionMaking #events #MeetingDesign #eventprofs
#Polling
If you are chasing #polling #Survey response rates have collapsed from 30-50% in the 1970s to as low as 5% today, while #AI agents now account for an estimated 20% of survey responses, according to a new analysis.
The UK's Office for National Statistics has seen response rates drop from 40% to 13%, with some labor market questions receiving only five human responses. The U.S. Current Population Survey hit a record low 12.7% response rate, down from 50% historically.
KFF.org, a nonprofit #health #policy #research, #polling, and #news organization, maintains a page on its site where you can track the Medicaid provisions in Congress's 2025 Reconciliation Bill: Most recent update: https://www.kff.org/tracking-the-medicaid-provisions-in-the-2025-budget-bill/. So, Trump et al, only 7.6 million Americans would be without health #insurance, huh? No big deal, huh? 😡
This sort of polling adjustment does not provide information on public opinion, it produces propaganda to shape that opinion. Weighting results to fit with an 11 year old referendum result surely isn’t justified.
#Politics #Scotland #Polls #Polling
Survation repeat their regular sample ‘adjustment’ to pluck another No vote to influence rather than inform https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2025/05/07/survation-repeat-their-regular-sample-adjustment-to-pluck-another-no-vote-to-influence-rather-than-inform/
SCOTLAND OPINION POLL PROJECTION
As usual, #BallotBoxScotland has done a write-up of this poll and a Scottish Parliament seat projection:
🟡 * National Party: 59 (-5)
🔴 * Labour: 26 (+4)
🔵 * Conservatives: 14 (-17)
⚪ Reform UK: 11 (+11)
🟢 * Greens: 10 (+2)
🟠 * Liberal Democrats: 9 (+5)
* Scottish
Changes with the 2021 election.
Write-up: https://ballotbox.scot/survation-april-2025/
#ukpolitics #ukpol #scotpol #Scotland #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #ReformUK #SNP #GreenParty #ScottishGreens
SCOTLAND OPINION POLL
Westminster voting intention from the same poll:
🟡 SNP: 33% (=)
🔴 Labour: 24% (=)
⚪ Reform UK: 15% (=)
🔵 Conservatives: 14% (+1)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 9% (=)
🟢 Greens: 5% (+1)
SNP lead of 9 points.
#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #SNP #AlbaParty #ScotPol #Scotland
SCOTLAND OPINION POLL
Headline Holyrood regional list voting intention by #Survation:
🟡 * National Party: 28% (-1)
🔴 * Labour: 22% (+2)
🔵 * Conservatives: 16% (+3)
⚪ Reform UK: 12% (-4)
🟢 * Greens: 10% (+2)
🟠 * Liberal Democrats: 9% (=)
🟤 Alba: 2% (-1)
* Scottish
Holyrood constituency voting intention:
🟡 * National Party: 36% (+2)
🔴 * Labour: 22% (-1)
⚪ Reform UK: 14% (-3)
🔵 * Conservatives: 13% (+1)
🟠 * Liberal Democrats: 9% (+1)
🟢 * Greens: 5% (+1)
🟤 Alba: 1% (=)
* Scottish
Conducted 16-22 April 2025. Changes with 6-13 March 2025.
#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #SNP #AlbaParty #ScotPol #Scotland
In what would likely be a major scandal under any other administration, but feels a bit like a "well duh" moment after the first 100 days of the Trumpenreich's fascist rule, recent polling indicates that a majority of American voters now support impeaching President Trump a third time.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-impeachment-2025
Majority of US Voters Support Third Trump Impeachment: Poll
"Specifically, a polling memo published Friday by ASO Communications and Research Collaborative shows that just a few months into Trump's return to the White House, 52% of likely voters across the ideological spectrum somewhat or strongly support impeaching him—including 84% of Democrats, 55% of Independents, and even 20% of his fellow Republicans."
While I don't believe there's any amount of polling that will make the Trump regime surrender, and I remain doubtful a fascist GOP is likely to risk reprisal from Trump's hardcore nazi base in the party to impeach Der Leader, I still think it's pretty relevant that experiencing the reality of Trump's authoritarianism in action is driving a majority of Americans to desire his removal from office.
Much of Trump's presumed authority to install himself as a dictator comes from the regime's invocation of a popular mandate to transform America into a white ethnostate, as well as a complicit media's refusal to address a clear lack of that mandate while they focus on "will he or won't he" coverage of Trump's obviously fascist activities. As more and more evidence comes in that the regime's Christian Nationalist agenda is in fact not popular, and Americans do not believe Trump has the authority to enact it, it's going to become harder and harder for both the regime and collaborators in the mainstream establishment to keep pretending there might be a veneer of legality or popular support behind all the government's nazi bullshit.
In the end, I'm pretty sure there's no way to topple the Trump regime that doesn't involve putting millions of people in the street to actively disrupt the police state and make it impossible for the collaborator class to profit from all that fascism. By that same measure however, I don't think Americans are going to rise up and stop their fascist government until they're completely sure there are no easier options for ending Trump's reign of tyranny and they believe the majority of people in this country are ready to rise up with them. In my opinion, polls like this one help shatter the fascists' false projection of invincibility, and bring us closer to that uprising; and as such that makes these numbers a welcome sight for my exhausted eyes at least.
#Fascism #Trump #USPolitics #Impeachment #Polling #AntiTrumpProtests #GOP #RepublicanParty #AlGreen #ShriThanedar
In the United States, the president is historically unpopular and is failing on virtually all measures according to the public: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/04/trump-poll-numbers-100-days-awful-disapprove-bad/
#motherjones #juliannemcshane #47 #polling #publicopinion #failure #autocracy #stupidity #us #usa #america #unitedstates #unitedstatesofamerica
Trump’s Poll Numbers Are Historically Awful
Liberals hold four-point lead over Conservatives heading into Monday’s vote: Ipsos
New polling data from Ipsos suggests tight national numbers obscure a Liberal advantage in key provinces such as Ontario, Québec and British Columbia.
#politics #election #polling #Ontario #Québec #BritishColumbia
https://globalnews.ca/news/11151536/liberals-hold-four-point-lead-ipsos/
Liberals hold four-point lead over Conservatives heading into Monday’s vote: Ipsos
New polling data from Ipsos suggests tight national numbers obscure a Liberal advantage in key provinces such as Ontario, Québec and British Columbia.
#politics #election #polling #Ontario #Québec #BritishColumbia
https://globalnews.ca/news/11151536/liberals-hold-four-point-lead-ipsos/
Liberals hold four-point lead over Conservatives heading into Monday’s vote: Ipsos
New polling data from Ipsos suggests tight national numbers obscure a Liberal advantage in key provinces such as Ontario, Québec and British Columbia.
#politics #election #polling #Ontario #Québec #BritishColumbia
https://globalnews.ca/news/11151536/liberals-hold-four-point-lead-ipsos/
Liberals hold four-point lead over Conservatives heading into Monday’s vote: Ipsos
New polling data from Ipsos suggests tight national numbers obscure a Liberal advantage in key provinces such as Ontario, Québec and British Columbia.
#politics #election #polling #Ontario #Québec #BritishColumbia
https://globalnews.ca/news/11151536/liberals-hold-four-point-lead-ipsos/
NOTE: MAYORAL ELECTION OPINION POLLING
An example of why polling is difficult, especially for local elections, can be found in the tables of the #YouGov mayoral opinion polls.
Here is a list of how the percentage of people polled reporting an 8 out of 10, or greater, certainty of voting compares to the turnout at the last set of elections in the area in question:
Reported/actual last time:
Cambs & Peterborough: 63%/37%
Greater Lincolnshire: 57%/35%ish
Hull & East Yorks: 56%/31%
West of England: 60%/37%
So yeah, trying to accurately predict election outcomes based on opinion poll responses is hard.
NOTE: MAYORAL ELECTION OPINION POLLING
An example of why polling is difficult, especially for local elections, can be found in the tables of the #YouGov mayoral opinion polls.
Here is a list of how the percentage of people polled reporting an 8 out of 10, or greater, certainty of voting compares to the turnout at the last set of elections in the area in question:
Reported/actual last time:
Cambs & Peterborough: 63%/37%
Greater Lincolnshire: 57%/35%ish
Hull & East Yorks: 56%/31%
West of England: 60%/37%
So yeah, trying to accurately predict election outcomes based on opinion poll responses is hard.
CAMBRIDGESHIRE & PETERBOROUGH OPINION POLL
Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:
🔵 Conservatives: 32%
⚪ Reform UK: 20%
🔴 Labour: 19%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 18%
🟢 Green Party: 10%
Conservative lead of 12 points.
Conducted 9-23 April 2025.
CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.
#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK
WEST OF ENGLAND OPINION POLL
Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:
🟢 Green Party: 27%
🔴 Labour: 23%
⚪ Reform UK: 18%
🔵 Conservatives: 17%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 13%
⚫ Independent: 2%
Green lead of 4 points.
Conducted 9-23 April 2025.
CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.
#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK
HULL & EAST YORKSHIRE OPINION POLL
Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:
⚪ Reform UK: 35%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 21%
🔴 Labour: 20%
🔵 Conservatives: 15%
🟢 Green Party: 7%
⚫ Independent: 3%
Reform lead of 14 points.
Conducted 9-23 April 2025.
CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.
#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK
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