Friday, May 2, 2025
Ukraine destroys 83,000 Russian targets using drones in April, Syrskyi says, up 8% on March — Delayed cluster munitions explode in Kyiv after Russian drone attack — Trump’s peace effort ignores thousands of Ukrainians still tortured in Russian captivity — Russia, North Korea building bridge to create ‘road of friendship’ — and more
https://activitypub.writeworks.uk/2025/05/friday-may-2-2025/
US #job growth slows marginally in April; #unemployment rate steady at 4.2%
U.S. job growth slowed marginally in April, but the outlook for the #labor market is increasingly darkening as #Trump's aggressive #tariff policy heightens economic #uncertainty.
#US #economy #inflation #recession
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/us-job-growth-slows-marginally-april-unemployment-rate-steady-42-2025-05-02/
“How long will it take to finish this book?”
I asked a room of leaders to forecast the answer — with dice, not estimates.
Monte Carlo isn’t magic. It’s just rolling with real history to reveal a range of futures.
New blog post: I Asked a Room Full of Leaders to Predict the Future — With Dice
#Forecasting #MonteCarlo #Flow #ProductManagement #Leadership #Uncertainty
In New York, Art Abounds This May Amid Market Uncertainty
As Frieze, TEFAF and other fairs bloom citywide, galleries and auction houses kick into high gear, with showy exhibitions and big-ticket items. #York #Art #Abounds #Market #Uncertainty
https://bmfnews.com/in-new-york-art-abounds-this-may-amid-market-uncertainty/
A quotation from Josh Billings
We are never nearer right than we am when we fear we are rong.
[We are never nearer right than we are when we fear we are wrong.]
Josh Billings (1818-1885) American humorist, aphorist [pseud. of Henry Wheeler Shaw]
Everybody’s Friend, Or; Josh Billing’s Encyclopedia and Proverbial Philosophy of Wit and Humor, ch. 156 “Affurisms: Embers on the Harth” (1874)
Sourcing, notes: wist.info/billings-josh/76476/
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #concern #confidence #correct #error #rightandwrong #selfawareness #uncertainty
In New York, Art Abounds This May Amid Market Uncertainty
As Frieze, TEFAF and other fairs bloom citywide, galleries and auction houses kick into high gear, with showy exhibitions and big-ticket items. #York #Art #Abounds #Market #Uncertainty
https://10bmnews.com/2025/05/in-new-york-art-abounds-this-may-amid-market-uncertainty/
https://www.alojapan.com/1261932/japans-top-brokerages-warn-on-trump-uncertainty-after-jump-in-profits/ Japan’s top brokerages warn on Trump uncertainty after jump in profits #brokerages #Japan #JapanNews #Japans #Jump #news #profits #Top #trump #uncertainty #warn TOKYO — Four of Japan’s largest brokerage groups reported a combined 57% increase in net profit for the year ended March 31, but there are signs that U.S. policy is having a chilling effect on the activities that drove these gains. Nomura Holdings, Daiwa Securities Group, SMBC N…
Homebuyer mortgage demand drops further, as economic uncertainty roils the housing market
#us #homebuyer #mortgage #economic #uncertainty #labor #market #refinance #applications #borrowers #rates #usa #mortgage #lending #banking #bankers #lenders #buyers #homes #house #residential #construction #builders #jobs #unemployment #employment
#fanniemae #fannie #freddie #underwriting #mortgages #homeownership #families #economy #recession #stagflation #trumpflation #americans
Coinciding with #Trump's first 100 days in office, it reinforced Americans' growing disapproval of his handling of the #economy so far. Trump…[won]…last November [purportedly] on voter angst over the economy, especially #inflation. [racism & sexism played an enormous role in his win]
#Consumer confidence is near 5-year lows & #business sentiment has tanked. #Airlines have pulled their 2025 financial forecasts, citing #uncertainty over spending on non-essential travel because of #tariffs….
#Trump signed 2 #ExecutiveOrders reversing course on some of the #tariffs he imposed on imported #cars & #CarParts. Among the changes: #Carmakers that pay a 25% #tariff on vehicles will not be subject to other levies, for example on #steel & #aluminum, & they will be able to qualify for relief on imported components for the next 2 years.
#chaos #uncertainty #LackOfConviction #Economy #Trade #InsiderTrading #law #geopolitics #USpol
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/us/politics/trump-auto-tariffs-executive-order.html?smid=url-share
"In a time of uncertainty, fear is cheap. Hope is powerful." - Futurist Jim Carroll
Throughout my career, I've often made fun of many motivational speakers.
I certainly see a lot of them - they are often on the agenda with me at the conferences and events at which I speak. And look, there are some really good ones - they could motivate you to run across the Sahara in a bathing suit while eating broccoli. At the same time, many just have a bit of a schtick. I find they are a little bit like Chinese food - you are wildly surprised and super-motivated for an hour and then kind of forget about it. And besides, I don't think walking on fire bricks can make you a better person.
With that bit of cynicism out of the way - and I'm sure they can lob lots right back at us futurists - I will admit that I have billed myself for a time as a "motivational futurist." That's not a stretch - after all, my job is not just to help people understand the trends that define tomorrow, but to give them some motivation as to what to do to get there.
That type of thing is also the role of anyone in any type of leadership position - your job is to motivate people to align with what comes next. The simple facts behind this reality are simple. Leaders lead. They set the tone. They establish the vision. They guide the path forward. They motivate their team. They inspire them to do what's necessary. Leadership is all about lifting people up, and not letting fear drag them down.
And all of this becomes ten times more important during a time of volatility, chaos, and uncertainty. Why? In a downturn, people lose sight of the future because of fear and uncertainty. The lack of clarity and the relentless pounding of news headlines and social media posts means that fear is accentuated.
Think about it: everyone on the team is worried, cautious, and seeking clarity—at a time when clarity is in short supply. They're confused, stressed, and looking for signs of guidance. Without it, they spin their wheels. In times of uncertainty, this becomes a deadly mix:
- fear spreads faster than facts.
- caution hardens into paralysis.
- people stop moving toward opportunity—and start freezing around problems.
- without strong leadership, a team’s mindset collapses inward.
- the survival instinct takes over.
- momentum evaporates.
That's why, in a downturn, the most important role of a leader in this circumstance is to fill in the gaps - the gaps in confidence, courage, clarity, and commitment.
---
Futurist Jim Carroll still considers himself to be a motivational futurist, but doesn’t suggest that people walk on fire stones to find their tomorrow.
**#Hope** **#Leadership** **#Motivation** **#Fear** **#Uncertainty** **#Vision** **#Momentum** **#Future** **#Progress** **#Empathy**
Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decoding-tomorrow-your-daily-future-inspiration-in-a-time-of-uncertainty-fear-is-cheap-hope-is-powerful/
Trump #tariffs and #FX - Historically, a sustained 10% rise in #euro shaves 2-3% off corporate #earnings - That will only add to the #uncertainty with #tariffs already weighing on the first-quarter earnings outlook, chart @reuters.com
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/unexpected-euro-surge-adds-europe-incs-tariff-misery-2025-04-28/
The people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger.
-- Hermann Goering
⬆ #Wisdom #Quotes #HermannGoering #Doubt #Fear #Government #Uncertainty
Trump #tariffs + a growing #uncertainty
The shipments from #China to US are slowing, chart @flacqua live @BloombergTV live
All this comes amid what #Trump's critics see as signs of democratic backsliding at home that have raised concerns abroad. These include verbal attacks [& more] on #judges, a pressure campaign against #universities & the transfer of migrants to a notorious #ElSalvador prison as part of a broader #deportation drive.
#AmericanAutocracy #NewWorldOrder #Chaos #Uncertainty #economy #geopolitics #NationalSecurity #InfoSec #Government #democracy #Constitution #Law #power
#Trump's second-term "America First" agenda has alienated friends & emboldened adversaries while raising questions about how far he is prepared to go. His actions, coupled with that #uncertainty, have so unnerved some governments that they are responding in ways that could be difficult to undo, even if a more traditional US president is elected in 2028.
#AmericanAutocracy #NewWorldOrder #Chaos #economy #geopolitics #NationalSecurity #InfoSec #Government #democracy #Constitution #Law #power
#Trump has launched an unprecedented #global #tariff war & slashed #US foreign #aid. He has disparaged #NATO #allies & embraced #Russia's narrative about its invasion of #Ukraine. And he has spoken about annexing #Greenland, retaking the #PanamaCanal & making #Canada the 51st state.
[and that’s before we talk about his domestic policies]
#AmericanAutocracy #NewWorldOrder #Chaos #Uncertainty #economy #geopolitics #NationalSecurity #InfoSec #Government #democracy #Constitution #Law #power
#Trump's first 100 days: The ’America First’ president is overturning the world order
In the chaotic first 100 days since Trump returned to office, he has waged an often unpredictable campaign that has upended parts of the #RulesBasedWorldOrder that Washington helped build from the ashes of WWII.
#AmericanAutocracy #NewWorldOrder #Chaos #Uncertainty #economy #geopolitics #NationalSecurity #InfoSec #Government #democracy #Constitution #Law #power
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-first-100-days-america-first-president-is-overturning-world-order-2025-04-27/
(a pivotal chart)
The driver? A sharp rise in US policy #uncertainty has shaken investor confidence in US assets and even sparked debate about the US #dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency.
