https://medium.com/storyangles/the-tension-triangle-470db46b787c

The Tension Triangle.
Balance Control, Uncertainty, and Change.
Handle chaos in work, relationships, and personal growth.

#tension #control #Uncertainty #change #medium #life

#statstab #479 Uncertainty limits the use of power analysis

Thoughts: Frequentists avoiding uncertainty is never good.

#poweranalysis #error #uncertainty #simulation #cohend #effectsize

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361158443_Uncertainty_limits_the_use_of_power_analysis

労働力不足
現在日本は移民政策を巡って大きく揺れてます。
汝、心を閉ざす事なかれ！

https://www.pixiv.net/novel/show.php?id=26262930

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#currently #state #great #uncertainty #over #immigration #policy #world #particularly #excessive #problem #people #anxiou #sure #many #sense #crisis #rapidly #population #birthrate #labor #only #cause #also #recluse #job #apparently

Labor Shortage
Japan is currently in a state of great・・・
Don't close your heart!

https://www.pixiv.net/novel/show.php?id=26262942

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#currently #state #great #uncertainty #over #immigration #policy #world #particularly #excessive #problem #people #anxiou #sure #many #sense #crisis #rapidly #population #birthrate #labor #only #cause #also #recluse #job #apparently

Дефіцит робочої сили
Японія зараз перебуває у стані великої・・・
Не закривай своє серце!

https://www.pixiv.net/novel/show.php?id=26262957

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#currently #state #great #uncertainty #over #immigration #policy #world #particularly #excessive #problem #people #anxiou #sure #many #sense #crisis #rapidly #population #birthrate #labor #only #cause #also #recluse #job #apparently

労働力不足
現在日本は移民政策を巡って大きく揺れてます。
汝、心を閉ざす事なかれ！

https://note.com/poison_raika/n/n45373a459a75

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#currently #state #great #uncertainty #over #immigration #policy #world #particularly #excessive #problem #people #anxiou #sure #many #sense #crisis #rapidly #population #birthrate #labor #only #cause #also #recluse #job #apparently

Labor Shortage
Japan is currently in a state of great・・・
Don't close your heart!

https://note.com/poison_raika/n/ndc504814b28a

<>

#currently #state #great #uncertainty #over #immigration #policy #world #particularly #excessive #problem #people #anxiou #sure #many #sense #crisis #rapidly #population #birthrate #labor #only #cause #also #recluse #job #apparently

Дефіцит робочої сили
Японія зараз перебуває у стані великої・・・
Не закривай своє серце!

https://note.com/poison_raika/n/nfaff4049cb32

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#currently #state #great #uncertainty #over #immigration #policy #world #particularly #excessive #problem #people #anxiou #sure #many #sense #crisis #rapidly #population #birthrate #labor #only #cause #also #recluse #job #apparently

A quotation from George Carlin

Not only do I not know what’s going on, I wouldn’t know what to do about it if I did.

George Carlin (1937-2008) American comedian
Book (1997), Brain Droppings, “Sometimes A Little Brain Damage Can Help”

More about this quote: wist.info/carlin-george/80730/

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #georgecarlin #comprehension #confusion #reaction #uncertainty #understanding

#dailyreport #llms #selflearning #selfknowledge #uncertainty #confidence
Topic: P2 Reading: Adaptive RAG, Self-Supervised Learning

Adaptive RAG - smaller model trained to predict the
complexity level of incoming queries

Adaptive Retrieval - calc query compexity, if query
entities is popular.

Time awarness - include "Today is current_date()" in the
instruction im prompt.

Model-based methods, Vanilla prompting: "Given a
question, determine whether you need to retrieve
... answer [Yes] or [No]"

Self-RAG fine-tunes Llama-2 using special reflection
tokens to allow the model to introspect its outputs.

2) Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) may be:
- *Contrastive*: learning differences (e.g., rotated or
cropped images), producing binary outputs.
- *Generative*: predicting missing words to yield
modified inputs.

P2: #dailyreport #llms #selflearning #selfknowledge #uncertainty #confidence

Types of uncertainty can arise from input or lack of
knowledge.
- Verbal and consistency methods: use self-measured
consistency of reasoning paths or of stochastically
sampled paraphrased responses for the same question.
- Latent methods.
- Semantic clustering: combines the above approaches and
compares latent graphs or clusters for paraphrased
responses.

*Confidence* is used in Adaptive RAGs to decide whether
to retrieve. Simple uncertainty estimation methods can
be highly effective for Adaptive RAG, such as:
- Lexical Similarity: Measures consistency based on the
average semantic similarity of sampled responses.

A quotation from H. A. Thompson

Worry — Interest paid on trouble before it falls due.

Harry "H. A." Thompson (1867-1936) American magazine editor, publisher
Article (1905-11-25), “Sense and Nonsense: Some Definitions,” Saturday Evening Post

More about this quote: wist.info/thompson-h-a/3952/

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #hathompson #anticipation #anxiety #concern #fretfulness #future #trouble #uncertainty #worry

Between test and result, claim a square of calm: breathe, label the feeling, release.

Zen Courtyard is built for these quiet in-between moments. 🌱

#Uncertainty #Mindfulness #Health #Compassion #ZenCourtyard

6/

#References (2)

[3] Dries, C., McDowell, M., Rebitschek, F.G., Leuker, C., 2024. When evidence changes: communicating uncertainty protects against a loss of trust. Public Understanding of Science 33 (6), 777–794. https://doi.org/10.1177/09636625241228449

#DOI

(on #uncertainty vs #hubris in #science, in the literature there are several paths of reflection of course; among the many e.g.

- https://hostux.social/@dderigo/110524816915476662

- https://hostux.social/@dderigo/110620576244087429
)

3/
However, "findings can be overturned when new evidence arises" [3]:

"how communicating and explaining #uncertainty around scientific findings affect trust in the communicator when findings change" was found [3] not to be so obvious as in the "default" guess [1].

Sometimes, "communicating uncertainty buffers against a loss of trust when evidence changes" and "explaining uncertainty does not appear to harm trust" [3]

A commentary by @hildabast on the study [3] offers a broader perspective

2/
This attitude reminds the first, perhaps most obvious, of the four "coping strategies" on #uncertainty in the #SciencePolicyInterface, as discussed by @Jeroen_van_der_Sluijs [2]

"Monster-exorcists want to expel the monster. Uncertainty simply does not fit within symbolical order where #science is seen as the producer of authoritative objective #knowledge" [2]

Variant: "keeping the uncertainties in knowledge claims deliberately under the table because they do not fit a political agenda" [2]

1/
Based just on anecdotal evidence: it seems surprisingly common for scientists to be told by funders, managers, or policy people that mentioning #uncertainty or limitations “complicates” the message or weakens its impact [1]. (Days ago, yet another colleague shared a story on this, with other scientists nodding along, recalling similar moments happened to them)

But here's the thing: without uncertainty and "steady doubt", #science "zombifies" back into the default historical #hubris mindset

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong signals that South Korea’s economic growth next year will likely match its potential rate, but warns of base effects and persistent uncertainties.
#YonhapInfomax #BankOfKorea #LeeChangYong #EconomicGrowth #PotentialGrowthRate #Uncertainty #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=92806

We’re excited to embark on this project, and hope the results will provide new insights into public responses to disputed detection events, with crucial implications for science/risk communication in astrobiology, as well as for post-detection communication strategies and protocols.”

Research led by Andreas Schwarz

https://www.tu-ilmenau.de/en/universitaet/fakultaeten/fakultaet-wirtschaftswissenschaften-und-medien/profil/institute-und-fachgebiete/institut-fuer-medien-und-kommunikationswissenschaft/forschung/international-risk-crisis-and-science-communication-research-group/team/priv-doz-dr-habil-andreas-schwarz
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9033-9662 #ORCID
Handbook: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781394180844.ch1

#Astrodon #Uncertainty #RiskPerception #ScienceNarratives #MediaAnalysis #Discovery #SETI

Yesterday our #cecam workshop on #uncertainty quantification (#uq)
for atomistic modelling and #machinelearning for #materials #modelling
and #chemistry started.

The opening contribution was by Niklas Schmitz from @MatMat
on #uq for #densityfuncitionaltheory:
https://github.com/niklasschmitz/tutorial-cecam-workshop-dftk-2025
building upon our recent preprint https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.07785.

#condensedmatter #physics #dftk