Welsh Lib Dems call on One‑Nation Conservatives to join them as party pitches to be new home of business

David Chadwick MP, speaking at the Welsh Liberal Democrat conference in Wrexham, accused the Conservatives of “disintegrating before our eyes” and abandoning their traditions of responsibility in favour of Reform UK‑style populism.

Chadwick attacks Conservatives over rule of law

In his keynote address, Chadwick pointed to Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch’s call for the UK to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights as proof that the Conservatives had “turned their backs on the rule of law and international cooperation.”

He also criticised talk of dismissing judges for supposed “activism”, describing it as “a government veering into anarchy while wearing a blue rosette.”

Pitch to business and entrepreneurs

Chadwick told delegates that as the Conservatives collapse, many moderate voters and entrepreneurs are searching for a political home that values both enterprise and fairness.

He argued that the Welsh Liberal Democrats are now the party of business and the economy, committed to free markets, free trade, and supporting small firms that drive local prosperity. The party, he said, would focus on cutting bureaucracy and post‑Brexit red tape, backing exporters, and creating conditions where innovation and investment can thrive alongside strong public services.

Call for ‘decent’ One‑Nation Conservatives to switch sides

Chadwick said the party would welcome anyone “who believes in decency, responsibility and a thriving private sector that serves communities, not just shareholders.”

“The Conservative Party that once stood for stability, enterprise and community no longer exists,” he said.

“It has been reduced to a hollow slogan machine, obsessed with culture wars, blind to community, and utterly lost on the economy.

“The Welsh Liberal Democrats are ready to take up that mantle. We are the new party of business; pro‑market, pro‑enterprise, pro‑community.

“To every decent, One‑Nation Conservative in Wales: You don’t have to choose between extremism and irrelevance. If you still believe in fairness, in community, in the rule of law and responsibility, in building a Wales with a thriving private sector, there is a home for you here.”

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Digital ID plans spark political row in Wales

UK Government sets out plan for smartphone IDs

The UK Government confirmed last week that a digital ID scheme will be rolled out before the next general election, due by 2029. Under the plans, every adult working in the UK will be required to hold a digital ID card stored on their smartphone.

The IDs will include details such as name, residency status, date of birth, nationality and a photo. Ministers argue the system will make it harder for people without legal status to work, while also simplifying everyday checks for services such as driving licences, childcare and welfare.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the scheme would “make our borders more secure.”

🖥️ What is a digital ID?

Digital ID card
Stored on smartphones, showing name, residency status, date of birth, nationality and a photo.

Purpose
Used for Right to Work checks and access to services like driving licences and childcare.

Rollout
UK Government says it will be introduced before the next general election, due by 2029.

Concerns
Critics warn of costs, civil liberties risks, and digital exclusion for those without smartphones.

First Minister backs rollout and demands Welsh flag on IDs

In Wales, First Minister Eluned Morgan has given her backing to the policy, telling BBC Wales she wants the Welsh flag to appear on IDs issued here.

“That is something that I’m definitely going to be pushing with the UK government,” she said.

Morgan added that she is pressing for additional funding to ensure the rollout does not disadvantage Wales.

Opposition brands digital ID a ‘red line’ for civil liberties

The proposals have been met with fierce criticism from opposition benches.

David Chadwick MP, who represents Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, described the idea of a mandatory digital ID as “crossing a red line.” He warned it risked undermining long‑standing civil liberties while doing little to fix problems in the immigration system.

Chadwick argued that the billions earmarked for the scheme would be better spent on clearing the asylum backlog through properly resourced processing centres, or on improving the NHS.

Welsh Conservatives have also voiced strong opposition. In the Senedd, Darren Millar MS challenged the First Minister to justify her support, claiming the scheme would cost Wales up to £1 billion in lost funding.

“Labour’s plans for digital IDs will not stop illegal migration and will come at an unacceptable cost to taxpayers,” he said.

Poll shows Wales more opposed than rest of UK

The debate comes against a backdrop of divided public opinion. A YouGov poll published on 26 September found 42% of people across Britain supported the introduction of digital ID cards, while 45% opposed them.

In Wales, opposition was stronger, with 35% of respondents saying they were “strongly opposed” compared to just 13% who strongly supported the idea.

Rollout due before 2029 with consultation promised

The UK Government insists the scheme will be free to download, with alternatives for those without smartphones, and says a public consultation later this year will help shape the design.

For now, though, the announcement has opened up a new political fault line in Wales, with the First Minister pressing for a Welsh‑branded rollout while her opponents warn of costs, risks and a loss of civil liberties.

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#CivilLiberties #DavidChadwickMP #DigitalID #ElunedMorganMS #FirstMinister #IDCard #KierStarmer #polling #PrimeMinister #UKGovernment #WelshConservatives #WelshFlag #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

Wetsuit jibe lands Swansea MP in hot water with Lib Dems

The remark — captured on video and shared by ITV News Politics — has sparked a row, with the Welsh Liberal Democrats accusing Mr Bell of immaturity and hypocrisy.

Local criticism

In a statement, the party said that at a time when Swansea and Wales face challenges from the cost‑of‑living crisis to NHS waiting times and housing shortages, “playground insults” were not what people expected from their MP.

They also highlighted concerns that Mr Bell, who was selected for Swansea West last year, had “little connection to the community” and had focused more on building his Westminster profile than working with local groups.

Policy record challenged

The Lib Dems further accused Mr Bell of inconsistency on welfare policy. They pointed to comments he made at the Resolution Foundation, where he described the two‑child benefit cap as “immoral” and called for its abolition, contrasting this with his subsequent votes in Westminster to retain the cap.

Councillor’s response

Cllr Sam Bennett, a Swansea councillor and Welsh Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe, said:

“Swansea expects more from someone in national office. Swansea West deserves an MP who works with the community and shows respect, not one who hides behind childish jibes.”

He added that the Liberal Democrats would continue to hold Labour to account on issues such as the two‑child benefit cap, Winter Fuel Allowance and river pollution “without descending into childish insults.”

Video clip

The moment Mr Bell made the remark was captured on camera and shared by ITV News Politics. You can view the clip below:

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1972349159006187924

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Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck and neck as Labour slumps to historic low in new Senedd poll

The survey, commissioned by ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, projects a dramatic shift in Welsh politics ahead of the 2026 Senedd election. It suggests Plaid Cymru would secure 30% of the vote, with Reform UK close behind on 29%. Labour trails on just 14%, with the Conservatives on 11%, and the Liberal Democrats and Greens both on 6%.

A Senedd without a majority

If repeated at the ballot box, the poll would leave Plaid Cymru with 38 seats and Reform UK with 37 in the expanded 96‑member Senedd. Labour would be reduced to just 11 seats, the Conservatives to six, with three for the Liberal Democrats and one for the Greens.

With no party close to the 49 seats needed for a majority, the findings point to a hung Senedd and complex coalition negotiations after the next election. The most likely outcome remains a Plaid‑led coalition or working partnership with Labour, given their combined numbers and closer policy alignment.

Labour’s historic dominance under threat

Since the creation of the Senedd in 1999, Welsh Labour has been the controlling force in Cardiff Bay, leading every government and consistently emerging as the largest party. The new poll, however, puts Labour on just 14% — its lowest level of support since devolution.

The slump comes despite Labour’s landslide at July’s Westminster general election, where the party returned to power in London. Analysts suggest dissatisfaction with the UK Labour Government’s early decisions, including its handling of issues such as support for Port Talbot steel, may be contributing to the party’s decline in Senedd voting intentions.

Small shifts, big consequences

The YouGov Barn Cymru poll provides vote share in percentages, which can then be modelled into projected seats. But under the Senedd’s new proportional system, even a tiny change in vote share could alter the way seats are divided. That makes the contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK — separated by just a single percentage point — especially significant.

Labour decisions fuel discontent in South West Wales

In South West Wales, the poll highlights how Labour’s recent decisions and controversies are shaping voter perceptions.

In Swansea, Labour largely held its ground at the general election, but the party faced criticism for parachuting in London‑based Torsten Bell as its Swansea West candidate. Now a minister in the Department for Work and Pensions, Bell has been closely associated with the UK Government’s proposed disability benefit cuts, a policy that has drawn sharp criticism from disability groups in Wales.

In Llanelli, Labour MS Lee Waters has faced sustained backlash for his role as transport minister, where he introduced the road‑building ban and the 20mph default speed limit. Both policies have proved deeply unpopular and continue to shape local perceptions of Labour in Carmarthenshire.

Reform UK has capitalised on this discontent. The party came within just 1,405 votes of unseating Labour veteran Dame Nia Griffith in Llanelli at the general election, and has since built momentum with two county council by‑election wins in the town. Much of that rise stems from the Stradey Park Hotel migrant housing controversy, where Reform was highly visible in protests against plans to house asylum seekers, including visits by then party leader Richard Tice.

Taken together, these developments suggest Reform is embedding itself in Llanelli and Swansea, reshaping the political map in areas once considered Labour strongholds. Plaid Cymru remains competitive in Carmarthenshire, but the new proportional Senedd system means even small shifts in vote share could have significant consequences for all three parties.

Corbyn’s new party adds further risk for Labour

The poll also comes as former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn launches a new left‑wing political movement with Coventry South MP Zarah Sultana. Though still unnamed, the party has already attracted support from Welsh figures including former Cynon Valley MP Beth Winter and ex‑PCS union leader Mark Serwotka.

The 2026 Senedd election will be the first held under Wales’ new closed‑list proportional representation system. Unlike systems where votes can transfer between ideologically similar parties, the closed list offers no such safety net. That means a vote for Corbyn’s party could reduce Labour’s seat share without boosting Plaid Cymru or other progressive parties.

Analysts warn that if Corbyn’s party polls even 5–10%, it could cost Labour and Plaid multiple seats — potentially handing Reform UK a clearer path to power.

What happens next

The Barn Cymru poll underlines just how volatile Welsh politics has become. For more than two decades, Labour has been the dominant force in Cardiff Bay, but its support has now slumped to unprecedented lows. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are locked in a contest that could reshape the Senedd, while the emergence of Jeremy Corbyn’s new party threatens to fragment the progressive vote even further.

With the 2026 election set to be the first fought under Wales’ new proportional system, even small shifts in support could have dramatic consequences for how seats are divided. What once looked like a predictable political landscape is now wide open — and South West Wales is likely to be at the heart of the battle.

Projected Senedd make‑up

Diagram: Projected Senedd make‑up under the new 96‑seat system, based on YouGov Barn Cymru polling. A dotted line shows the number of seats needed for a majority.

#GreenParty #PlaidCymru #politics #polling #ReformUK #Senedd #SeneddElection #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

Two‑thirds in Wales think politicians are ‘out for themselves’, YouGov poll finds

The survey found 66% of Welsh respondents think politicians are “out merely for themselves” — almost identical to the UK‑wide figure of 67%. Just 4% in Wales believe politicians primarily act in the best interests of the country, while 20% think they put their party first.

Little change since 2022

The findings show attitudes in Wales are broadly in line with the rest of Britain and have barely shifted in the past three years.

Across the UK, the view that politicians act largely out of self‑interest is shared by majorities of voters for all parties — including 63% of Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters, 65% of Conservatives and 68% of Greens. Reform UK voters are the most sceptical, with 83% saying politicians are out for themselves.

A long‑term decline in trust

While the figures are stark, distrust in political motives is not new. In 1944, during the Second World War, Gallup found 36% of Britons believed politicians were trying to do what was best for the country, compared to 35% who thought they were out for themselves.

By 1972, the proportion who believed politicians acted in the national interest had fallen to 28%. In 2014, a YouGov poll put it at just 10%, with nearly half (48%) saying politicians acted mainly for themselves.

‘A major point of concern’

YouGov said the results underline the scale of the challenge facing anyone seeking to rebuild public trust in politics.

A spokesperson said:

“The lack of trust in politics has been a major point of concern in recent years, both in the UK and around the world. Central to that loss of trust is the question of what motivates politicians — and the public increasingly sees them as self‑interested.”

#PlaidCymru #politics #ReformUK #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

Thousands of shoplifting cases go unsolved in South Wales and Dyfed‑Powys as charge rates remain low

House of Commons Library data obtained by the Welsh Liberal Democrats shows that in 2024‑25, 6,734 shoplifting investigations in South Wales and 946 in Dyfed‑Powys were closed with no suspect identified. That’s the equivalent of more than 21 incidents a day going unsolved across the two force areas combined.

South Wales Police recorded a charge rate of 25.3%, while Dyfed‑Powys Police charged or summoned suspects in just 13.6% of cases. Across Wales, 13,077 shoplifting investigations were closed without a suspect — around 35 a day.

The Liberal Democrats say the figures highlight the scale of the problem and the impact on local businesses, warning that shoplifting is “not a victimless crime” and that staff are increasingly at risk from persistent offenders.

David Chadwick MP, Welsh Liberal Democrat for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, said:

“These shameful figures show the impact years of cuts to our police by the Conservatives had on society. This Labour government must now right these wrongs and crack down on shoplifting. Shoplifting is at epidemic levels in Wales now, with many business owners feeling like it has all but been decriminalised and many retail staff increasingly being put in harm’s way.”

Cllr Sam Bennett, the party’s Senedd candidate for Gwyr Abertawe (Swansea & Gower), added:

“Shoplifting is not a victimless crime; it does a huge amount of damage to our local businesses and those who work in them. It’s time for the government to scrap Police and Crime Commissioners and invest the money in frontline policing instead. That way we can get more bobbies on the beat and stop this lawlessness on our high streets.”

The party is calling for the role of Police and Crime Commissioners to be abolished, with the funds redirected to frontline policing.

Wider picture

Retail trade bodies have previously warned that rising shoplifting rates are linked to organised crime as well as opportunistic theft, and have called for tougher enforcement alongside better support for shop workers.

#DavidChadwickMP #DyfedPowysPolice #PoliceAndCrimeCommissioner #prosecution #SamBennett #shoplifting #SouthWalesPolice #WelshLiberalDemocrats

From Westminster landslide to Senedd stalemate — new polling shows two very different futures for South West Wales

The latest Election Polling projection, based on late‑August Wales‑wide polling, updates the July MRP analysis we reported on 1  August. It confirms that Reform UK remains the leading party in nine of ten Westminster constituencies in the region, but also shows Labour clawing back small amounts of support in several key battlegrounds.

A tale of two systems

In Westminster terms, the numbers are brutal for Labour. Seats like Llanelli, Swansea West and Bridgend — once considered safe — would fall decisively to Reform UK, alongside gains from the Liberal Democrats in Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe. Even modest Reform leads in the low‑30s are enough to flip seats outright under first‑past‑the‑post.

But the picture changes dramatically when the same vote shares are run through the Senedd’s new proportional system. Here, Reform’s dominance is diluted: in most six‑member constituencies they take only two or three seats, with Labour and Plaid Cymru sharing the rest. Smaller parties like the Greens and Liberal Democrats also pick up representation where their support is concentrated.

Momentum and movement

Compared with early July, Reform’s vote share has dipped by one or two points in several Westminster seats, while Labour has edged up by a similar margin. These are small shifts, but they suggest the party’s earlier slide may have bottomed out. Plaid Cymru’s position is steady in its rural heartlands, while the Conservatives remain stuck in single digits across most of the region.

In the Senedd projection, there are no changes in South West Wales seat allocations since the July‑based forecast — but the Wales‑wide totals now put Labour and Plaid on 54 seats combined, comfortably above the 49 needed for a majority. That would make a Labour–Plaid coalition the most likely outcome in Cardiff Bay, even as Reform tops the regional vote.

Westminster projections: Reform gains from Labour and Lib Dems

Updated Senedd projections for South West Wales

Why it matters

The contrast between the two systems is stark. Under Westminster rules, Reform UK’s regional lead would translate into a historic series of gains, redrawing the political map of South West Wales almost overnight. Under the Senedd’s proportional system, the same vote shares would produce a far more balanced chamber — and potentially shut Reform out of government altogether.

For voters, it’s a reminder that how we vote can be just as decisive as who we vote for.

#Election #ParliamentaryElection #PlaidCymru #politics #polling #ReformUK #Senedd #SeneddElection #Voting #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Grassroots sports coach Dean Ronan to contest new Afan Ogwr Rhondda Senedd seat for Lib Dems

Dean Ronan, who grew up in the valleys and works with children in residential care, says his career has given him “direct insight into how underfunded services affect vulnerable families and young people.”

Away from the classroom, he has more than 15 years’ experience coaching rugby at all levels – from Maesteg Harlequins RFC to the Wales Women’s national team – and describes the sport as a vital way of building confidence and opportunity for young people.

Campaign priorities

Mr Ronan’s platform focuses on three main themes:

• Stronger communities – empowering councils, investing in public transport, and regenerating high streets in towns such as Maesteg, Tonypandy and Pontycymmer.
• Fairness and opportunity – tackling inequality in health, education and jobs, with targeted support for care leavers and rebuilding youth services.
• Inclusion through sport, culture and health – backing grassroots clubs, protecting leisure facilities such as Cymmer Pool, and promoting arts and culture across the valleys.

Launching his campaign at Maesteg Harlequins RFC, Mr Ronan said:

“I’ve lived here all my life and seen the positive impact supporting communities can have on people. We need to protect and improve our schools and hospitals, tackle the crisis in social care, breathe new life into our towns and villages, and ensure the local economy creates good, well‑paid jobs.”

Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds MS welcomed his candidacy, saying his “strength and experience” would be an asset in next May’s elections, while deputy leader David Chadwick MP described him as “a true local champion” with valuable experience in education.

The party says recent polling suggests it has a realistic chance of winning the new seat, which spans parts of Neath Port Talbot, Bridgend and Rhondda Cynon Taf.

Residents are invited to attend the campaign launch event at Maesteg Harlequins Rugby Club on Friday 29 August at 4pm.

#AfanOgwrRhondda #Bridgend #DeanRonan #JaneDoddsMS #Maesteg #MaestegHarlequinsRFC #NeathPortTalbot #SeneddElection #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Almost half of Brits say they would never swim in the sea – with the number rising sharply amid sewage scandal

The poll also found that less than a fifth (18%) of people say they would actually be more likely to swim in the sea if the Government meets its target of cutting spills in half.

Staggeringly, more people (19%) said even if the Government hit its target, they would actually be less likely to swim in the sea, with 45% of people saying they still would not swim in the sea.

People were also asked if they went swimming in the sea during the summer months and if they now would not due to sewage dumping. The poll found close to three in ten (29%) of those who said they go swimming in the sea now said they will not do it at all due to sewage dumping. This is a rise of six percentage points from 23% in just two years, when the same poll was conducted for the Liberal Democrats in 2023.

The Liberal Democrats said the figures laid bare a “coastline crisis” with people “afraid” of enjoying the British summertime due to rampant sewage dumping. The party said that the Government would not be able to end the sewage scandal without giving the planned new regulator the power to levy serious and higher fines and holding persistent sewage dumpers criminally responsible.

Previous data has shown that the Welsh coastal constituencies of Ceredigion Preseli, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Mid & South Pembrokeshire are all in the top 10 most sewage-polluted in the UK, with Ceredigion Preseli taking the number one spot. While the River Tawe was the most sewage-filled in Wales and one of the worst in the entire UK.

The same data also showed that Dwr Cymru was the worst offender of all water companies, despite its small size compared to many in England.

Commenting, Welsh Liberal Democrat Senedd Candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea & Gower) and Swansea Waterfront Cllr Sam Bennett said:

“This coastline crisis threatens to wreck Welsh summers, with people afraid of swimming in the sea due to rampant sewage dumping. These polluting firms have been let off the hook at every turn, and it is our local environments and people’s summer holidays that are suffering the consequences.

“In communities like mine, the sewage crisis poses a serious risk not only to wildlife and human health, but also to our thriving tourism industry.

“Both the UK and Welsh Governments have failed to get to grips with this crisis, and the public expect more than a job half done.

“The Welsh Liberal Democrats will be running on a platform to clean up our waterways for good at next year’s Senedd elections. That means a full ban on water company executive bonuses, higher and more persistent fines for breaches and for a strong regulatory body that actually enforces the rules.”

#DwrCymru #openWaterSwimming #sewage #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Welsh Government under pressure over paramedic recruitment shortfall

Concerns have been raised over a major shortfall in paramedic recruitment in Wales, with just 20 of this year’s 67 graduates set to be hired by the Welsh Ambulance Service — despite the service requesting 86 new recruits through Welsh Government funding.

The figures, revealed by Swansea Liberal Democrat Councillor and Senedd candidate Sam Bennett, have sparked criticism from opposition parties who say the decision undermines efforts to improve ambulance response times and risks wasting public investment in training.

Bennett, who is standing for Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea West & Gower), said:

“We cannot afford to lose these highly skilled professionals, especially not at a time when the NHS is under this much pressure.”

“It is shocking that despite funding 87 paramedic students, less than half will be recruited. That so few are to be hired is a scandal.”

The Welsh Liberal Democrats are calling on the Welsh Labour Government to urgently intervene and create more posts to absorb the newly qualified paramedics.

According to the latest performance data, 51% of red calls — the most life-threatening emergencies — are not being met within target times, while 33% of amber calls, which include heart attacks and strokes, are taking longer than an hour to respond to.

Party leader Jane Dodds MS added:

“The NHS is our top priority. Having already paid for the training, it’s a no-brainer that the Welsh Government should seize this opportunity to give paramedics more support and resources.”

The Welsh Government has not yet issued a formal response to the figures, but Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care Jeremy Miles has reportedly confirmed the numbers in correspondence with the party.

The Welsh Ambulance Service has faced sustained pressure in recent years, with staff describing the job as “soul-destroying” amid long delays, staffing shortages, and rising demand.

#ambulance #JaneDoddsMS #paramedicRecruitment #paramedics #SamBennett #WelshAmbulanceServiceTrust #WelshGovernment #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

New polling shows Reform UK still leading in South West Wales — but Labour gains

New constituency-level analysis from YouGov’s July 2025 MRP polling confirms that Reform UK continues to lead in South West Wales, but small vote share shifts point to signs of life for Labour in several key seats.

The updated data follows Swansea Bay News’ original projection last month based on an MRP forecast by research group More in Common, which charted Reform UK’s dramatic rise across the region. While the new numbers show the party maintaining its hold in nine of ten constituencies, Labour has recovered modest ground — most notably in Llanelli and Swansea West.

The full breakdown is shown below, with vote share changes since the previous projection in early July:

Westminster projections: Reform gains hold, Labour rebounds slightly

Reform UK’s overall vote share remains robust, but Labour has managed to reverse some of its earlier decline. The Green Party also shows slight upward movement, particularly in Swansea West and Neath & Swansea East. The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives remain in single digits across most seats, with Plaid Cymru continuing to defend its heartland constituencies in Caerfyrddin and Ceredigion Preseli.

Updated Senedd projections for South West Wales

A parallel projection for the 2026 Senedd election, using the D’Hondt method to allocate seats across newly drawn regional boundaries, reveals that Reform UK is poised to win at least two seats in every South West Wales region.

While there are no changes in overall seat allocation since the previous projection, a Green gain in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd suggests growing support among progressive voters under the new proportional system.

Momentum holds — but the race tightens

The broader trend is clear: Reform UK remains dominant across South West Wales, particularly in seats with high anti-incumbent sentiment. Labour’s gains, though limited, indicate potential for a more competitive landscape — particularly if national party dynamics shift.

Plaid Cymru continues to hold ground in its strongholds but faces growing pressure from both Reform and Labour. Smaller parties such as the Greens and Liberal Democrats may benefit from increased voter awareness of the Senedd’s proportional system, especially in more urban regions.

#Election #GreenParty #ParliamentaryElection #PlaidCymru #politics #polling #ReformUK #SeneddElection #Voting #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

New polling shows Reform surge – redrawing the political map in South West Wales

A new MRP forecast by research group More in Common suggests Reform UK is now the dominant political force across South West Wales, overtaking Labour in multiple constituencies and setting the stage for a dramatic shift in both Westminster and Senedd representation.

The July 2025 model, based on polling of over 10,000 UK adults, projects Reform UK to win 290 seats nationally, with Labour trailing on 126 and the Conservatives collapsing to 81. But the most striking changes are happening closer to home—particularly in Llanelli, where a once-safe Labour seat is now projected to fall decisively to Reform.

Westminster Projections: Reform Gains Across the Region

Llanelli: A Case Study in Reform’s Rise

The most symbolic shift is in Llanelli, where Labour veteran Dame Nia Griffith is now projected to lose her seat to Reform UK by a 29-point margin. This follows a series of local breakthroughs:

• In 2024, Gareth Beer of Reform UK came within a few hundred votes of unseating Griffith.
• In May 2025, Michelle Beer, Gareth’s wife, won a landslide victory in the Lliedi ward of Carmarthenshire County Council, defeating Labour by over 250 votes (full story).
• The Beers’ growing local profile has made Llanelli a bellwether for Reform’s national momentum.

Reform’s Local Ground Game: Beyond Llanelli

Reform’s rise isn’t limited to Llanelli. In Bridgend, the party recently won a council by-election in Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr, beating Labour by just 30 votes (coverage). That victory, combined with the MRP projection of a 22-point lead in the parliamentary seat, suggests a deep shift in voter sentiment.

What This Means for the 2026 Senedd Election

The next Senedd election will be the first under a new proportional voting system, with 96 MSs elected from 16 six-member constituencies. Based on current polling, Reform UK is projected to win the most seats in the Senedd—but not a majority.

According to Swansea Bay News’s earlier analysis (read more), the most likely outcome remains a Plaid–Labour coalition, despite Reform’s lead in vote share. This is due to the proportional system rewarding broad but balanced support across constituencies.

Updated Senedd Projections for Swansea Bay Region

These estimates reflect the July 2025 MRP vote shares applied to the D’Hondt method. Final outcomes will depend on turnout, candidate lists, and campaign dynamics.

A Region in Political Flux

The combined effect of Westminster polling, local by-election results, and Senedd projections suggests South West Wales is undergoing a historic political realignment:

• Reform UK is now the leading party in most local constituencies
• Labour’s dominance is eroding, especially in working-class and post-industrial areas
• Plaid Cymru remains strong in rural constituencies but is not expanding beyond its base
• The Conservatives risk being wiped out in several seats unless they reverse their polling decline

For more on how these changes could affect your community, follow the Politics section of Swansea Bay News.

#Election #MoreInCommon #ParliamentaryElection #politics #ReformUK #SeneddElection #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Swansea Labour MPs told to ‘grow a backbone’ over welfare cuts

108 Labour MPs have signed an amendment to the Government’s welfare reform bill declining to give the welfare reform Bill a second reading when it returns to the Commons on 1 July.

The amendment recognised the “need for the reform of the social security system” but called on MPs to continue scrutinising the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill “because the Government’s own impact assessment estimates that 250,000 people will be pushed into poverty as a result of these provisions, including 50,000 children”.

If the 108 rebel Labour MP’s amendment was supported by opposition MPs, then this would be enough to defeat the Government’s plans.

Campaigners have criticised the lack of public consultation with disabled people of the plans, particularly in Wales saying there is a “growing atmosphere of fear and anger” about the proposals.

It has been revealed that just 3 Welsh Labour MPs have supported the amendment, Steve Witherden for Montgomeryshire, Ruth Jones for Newport West and Henry Tufnell for Mid and South Pembrokeshire.

The Liberal Democrats have criticised the lack of Welsh Labour’s MPs from Swansea and the Gower or Neath signing the amendment despite it saying the region is set to be badly hit.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Swansea Councillor and Senedd candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe Sam Bennett has said that that Swansea’s Labour MPs need to “grow a backbone and stand up for the interests of their constituents”, pointing to evidence they uncovered last month showing that Wales is set to be the worst hit by Labour’s welfare cuts.

In both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, at least 90% of people claiming the standard rate of Personal Independence Payment for daily living activities are at risk of losing at least some of the payment.

The Liberal Democrats say they have repeatedly criticised the proposed cuts to PIP payments and attempts by those in Labour and the Conservatives to mislead the public into thinking these are unemployment benefits when, in fact, the payment supports many disabled people staying in work.

The Party say they have also highlighted how Torsten Bell, MP for Swansea West and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Pensions, opposed welfare cuts when he worked for the Resolution Foundation, but is now supporting them as a Government minister.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Swansea Councillor and Senedd Candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe (Gower and Swansea) Sam Bennett said: “Swansea and Neath’s Labour MPs really need to grow a backbone and do what is right for their constituents and for Wales.

“Torsten Bell was happy to oppose welfare cuts when he worked for the Resolution Foundation, but now, when he’s been parachuted into Swansea and in a position to do something, he is silent.

“We all agree that welfare fraud should be tackled, but that’s not what the proposed changes do. Instead, they will cut the support that helps people with daily tasks that many of us would take for granted, such as staying clean or staying safe.

“This support actually helps many disabled people stay in work.

“I think it’s disgraceful that our area is set to be one of the hardest hit, yet none of our Labour MPs are willing to speak out.

“If these cuts go ahead, all it will do is move the financial burden onto local council services and charities, which have already been cut to the bone and are struggling to make ends meet. The Liberal Democrats will continue to oppose these cuts.”

#benefits #DWP #SamBennett #TorstenBell #UKGovernment #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Reform projected to have most Senedd seats – but Plaid and Labour coalition most likely Government

A seat projection calculated by the public affairs company Cavendish Cymru has looked at the potential outcome of the new closed list proportional representation voting system.

The results show that Reform would have the largest number of seats, with 34.

Plaid Cymru would come second with 30 seats and Labour trailing in third with 21 seats.

The Conservatives are projected 8 seats, with the Liberal Democrats on 2 and the Greens picking up their first seat.

While Reform would be the largest party, they would not have enough seats to form a majority – even if they were to form a coalition with the Conservatives.

The most likely outcome would be a Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour coalition – either a formal agreement or a confidence-and-supply deal. This would be dependent on Labour supporting Plaid’s Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister, however.

The results would see First Minister Eluned Morgan lose her seat, while former Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price would return to the Senedd, despite placing third on Plaid Cymru’s Sir Gaerfyrddin list.

Seat projections for the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd seat that covers Swansea East, Neath Port Talbot and South Powys show Reform picking up two seats, with Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Conservatives with one each.

In the Gŵyr Abertawe constituency covering Gower and Swansea West, Reform, Labour and Plaid Cymru would have two seats each.

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, which includes Bridgend, would see Reform and Labour each with two seats, with Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives taking one seat each.

Sir Gaerfyrddin covering Carmarthenshire would see Plaid Cymru and Reform take three seats each.

#Election #GreenParty #PlaidCymru #politics #ReformUK #Senedd #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Nuclear investment announcement a ‘missed opportunity’ for Welsh tidal power

The Welsh Liberal Democrats have said that today’s announcement by the UK Government on investing £14.2 billion in the Sizewell C Nuclear Plant in Suffolk is a massive, missed opportunity for both Wales and the UK’s efforts to tackle climate change.

The party say that while Sizewell C is a huge project, capable of powering 6 million homes, not one of those homes will be in Wales — and not one job from the development will benefit Welsh communities.

The leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Jane Dodds MS, has written to the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero to call on the UK Government to urgently start investing in Welsh Tidal Lagoon projects, such as the one in Swansea Bay.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats say that if the Government had chosen to invest in Welsh Tidal Lagoon projects thousands of high skilled, well-paid jobs would be created in Wales giving a much-needed boost to our coastal economies whilst helping the UK to meet its climate goals.

Commenting she said: “Once again we’re seeing this Labour government putting other parts of the UK first.

“Just imagine how transformational it would have been to the Welsh economy if the UK Government had chosen to invest in Welsh Tidal Lagoon projects rather than more nuclear power stations.

“For generations we exported energy to the world and the Welsh Liberal Democrats want to see us do it again through renewable sources such as tidal.

“Both the UK Labour Government and Welsh Labour Government need to be more ambitious for Wales’ future and think about how a failure to invest in Wales today is damaging our economic prospects for generations to come.”

An independent commission of experts have recommended in March that the government “act now” to harness the UK’s huge potential for tidal range energy in the Severn Estuary. 

The report prompted backers of the cancelled Swansea Bay tidal lagoon to call for the UK and Welsh Governments to “get on with building” a lagoon in Swansea as well.

#NuclearPower #TidalLagoon #TidalPower #UKGovernment #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Row over city waterfront park development

Liberal Democrat councillor and Senedd candidate Sam Bennett has claimed that residents had been promised a park would be delivered in SA1 for the past decade – but despite promises from the Labour-run council that work would be started in the coming year on multiple occasions, every single date has come and passed.

Labour Council leader, Rob Stewart meanwhile has criticised Cllr Bennet’s comments as “pretty disingenuous and misleading”.

Cllr Bennett says that since being elected in 2022 he has met with officers and has been “continuously on the case asking for updates”, most recently meeting with the Cabinet Member where assurances were made that the park would be started in May. Cllr Bennett said that at the end of May no parks have been started.

The Lib Dem Senedd candidate added that When SA1 was developed as part of planning £1million was put aside for 3 new parks in SA1. More than 10 years later, all three locations remain undeveloped and untouched, and are being used as builders compounds. 

Cllr Bennett said: “The situations with the Parks in SA1 is simply a disgrace. In the 2022 elections Labour made big fanfare they had the £1million for the parks in an effort to persuade the residents of SA1 to vote for them.

“Three years down the line, and residents still do not have even 1 park. I spoke to one couple who moved to SA1 to raise their young family, and are now disappointed that their children are growing up, and are unlikely to benefit from a new park.”

Fellow Senedd Candidate and Welsh Lib Dem Leader Jane Dodds MS also weighed into the argument saying: “There are very few parks in this area of Swansea, and many people live in flats or town houses without gardens, new parks would create precious outdoor space for residents, and I am joining Cllr Bennett in calling for the Labour Council to get on with delivering these parks.”

Council leader, Rob Stewart has criticised Cllr Bennett’s statements, saying work on two parks in SA1 were well under way and that the Lib Dem councillor had been kept up to date on progress.

The council leader suggested that the Lib Dem’s criticism was part of the start of his Senedd election campaign.

Cllr Rob Stewart said: “As the facts and evidence confirm, he has been kept up to date through out this process, and knew full well that £1m was being invested for new parks in his ward in SA1.

“This is on top of the £8m we have invested to upgrade play areas all across Swansea.

“I’m not sure what Cllr Bennett’s motivation is, perhaps it’s and attempt to kick off his Senedd election campaign, or maybe he thought he was being clever and could look like a miracle worker, by asking for something he knew was already coming.

“I suspect Cllr Bennett will struggle to point to many personal successes from his time as a councillor, or to be able to draw on successes from his Liberal Democrat colleagues when they ran Swansea (metro failure, slip bridge) but trying to cover this by misrepresenting the good work done in good faith by council officers is pretty low!”

Meanwhile Swansea Council have released an update on the progress of the two proposed parks in SA1.

The council says that work has started transforming two patches of waste ground in SA1 into what it says will become thriving urban community parks, between them boasting play areas, nature trails, meeting spots, events space and a pump track.

The project is being financed by income from developers known as section 106 funds and will cost in the region of £1m to deliver. The council says that work has already started and planting will take place later in the year, with the parks due to be fully open to the public by early next year.

The larger of the two parks is sited along Langdon Road, at Prince of Wales Dock near The Village Hotel. It’s features will include a community play area, including play equipment for children of all ages, a basketball space and play facilities for children with disabilities; a space for informal play and sports and space for socialising and holding events.

Benches and seating areas along with trees, extensive planting beds, flowering hedgerows and other green spaces to enjoy, promoting wildlife and insect life and providing new habitats also form part of the plans.

The second park will be situated on land between Langdon Road and the corner of Prince of Wales Dock. Its attractions will feature a brand new state-of-the-art pump track, open green space, space for wildflowers, hedgerows and trees and habitat support for insects.

Rob Stewart added: “Amy Dillwyn Park was the first urban park created in Swansea for a century. Now we’re building on its success by creating two more parks in the heart of SA1 that will cater for the whole community.

“These two new green gems will encourage residents, families and young people to get out and about, boost residents’ enjoyment of the place where they live and promote wellbeing.

“The extra green space will also promote nature and biodiversity in the heart of the busy SA1 area and they are the result of public consultation and collaboration from teams across the council.”

He continued: “Since the pandemic we’ve invested £8m in more than 60 new play areas and committed a further £3m towards a new generation of skate and BMX facilities.

“That’s on top of a number of new 3G pitches, £10m for new sports changing spaces and other community improvements and there’s even a new outdoor gym in Trallwn just opened for locals to enjoy.

“These two amazing new parks as well as the Amy Dilwyn Park are vital investments in our communities that will make a difference.”

Councillor Robert Francis-Davies, Cabinet Member for Investment, Regeneration, Events and Tourism, said: “Part of our innovative approach and commitment to promoting nature and biodiversity sustainability means we are reusing soils excavated from other Swansea sites, including clean silts and soils from the Singleton Boating Lake.

“This extra funding for open space improvements is unprecedented. It’s happening because it’s what the residents of Swansea have told us they want and the feedback we’ve had so far demonstrates people are noticing the difference it makes for them, their families and communities.

“We’re confident that these great new places will be welcomed by residents of SA1 and that locals and visitors alike will work with us to keep the facilities in top shape for years to come.”

#CllrRobStewart #CllrRobertFrancisDavies #featured #Parks #playground #SA1 #SamBennett #Swansea #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

MP calls on Lloyds CEO to halt closure of Pontardawe branch

Speaking in Parliament, the Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe MP condemned the wave of bank closures across rural Wales. He described it as a betrayal of loyal customers who have been abandoned in the name of profit.

He criticised Lloyds CEO Charlie Nunn, who received a five point six million pound pay package last year while overseeing the closure of more than one hundred and forty branches including those in Presteigne, Ystradgynlais and Brecon, and now Pontardawe. David Chadwick MP accused him of disregarding and causing ‘misery’ to elderly and vulnerable people throughout his constituency.

Commenting, David Chadwick MP said: “Lloyds claims it is closing branches due to lack of footfall. Yet in Pontardawe the queues regularly run out the door. That is not a lack of demand. It is a deliberate choice to walk away from loyal customers.

“Charlie Nunn took home over five and a half million pounds last year. His customers in Pontardawe are being offered nothing more than a visit to community banker once a month. It is insulting, and it must be put right.

“The planned closure of the Lloyds branch in Pontardawe has sparked much local anger. With more than five hundred residents signing a petition asking for it to remain open.

“The closure would leave thousands of people in the Swansea Valley without access to in-person banking. These are people who have entrusted Lloyds with their life savings, who Lloyds have profited off for decades.

“The banks may have forgotten their customers in Wales, but I have not.

“That is why I am calling on Lloyds CEO, Charlie Nunn to reverse this decision and show some understanding of the harm these closures are causing.”

#bankClosure #DavidChadwickMP #LloydsBank #Pontardawe #WelshLiberalDemocrats

MP calls for devolved rail powers after ‘shocking’ £6.6bn project delivers nothing for Wales

The decision follows a pattern of major rail projects (including HS2) being wrongly classed as “England and Wales” schemes, meaning Wales is denied the funding it would otherwise receive through the Barnett formula. The classification was revealed by local Liberal Democrat MP David Chadwick following a written question in Parliament, which was answered by the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Transport Simon Lightwood.

Speaking in the House of Commons today, David Chadwick MP condemned the decision as “shocking” and called on the UK Government to urgently devolve full powers over rail infrastructure to Wales, so future English projects can no longer be used to side-line Welsh investment.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats estimate that Wales would have received over £360 million in consequential funding from the East-West Rail project alone. Independent experts estimate Wales has lost over £4 billion as a result of similar misclassifications in recent years.

The party continues to campaign for this project to be reclassified as “England only,” for a fair funding settlement for Wales, for full devolution of transport infrastructure to the Senedd, and for sustained investment in Welsh rail services, including long-overdue improvements to the Heart of Wales Line.

Commenting, David Chadwick MP said: “It is simply indefensible that Wales continues to be frozen out of hundreds of millions in rail funding for projects that do not lay a single centimetre of track in our country. We saw this with HS2, with Northern Powerhouse Rail, and now again with East-West Rail. Time after time, Wales is left behind.

“It is clear that someone in this labour government is out to deliberately short-change Wales. The only way forward is to devolve full powers over rail infrastructure to Wales so we can make decisions that serve our own communities.

“Wales must be able to invest properly in its own rail network. That includes delivering serious improvements to the Heart of Wales Line, which has been neglected for decades.

“Investment in lines such as the Heart of Wales Line would make a meaningful difference to Wales, unlike a rail project hundreds of miles away between Oxford and Cambridge. This line is a lifeline for rural communities, supporting jobs, education and tourism, and it deserves the same level of ambition and investment as rail services elsewhere in the UK.”

Meanwhile a former Swansea Labour MP has also criticised the UK Labour Government for Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s latest £15.6bn transport investment announcement, where she missed Wales out entirely.

Geraint Davies called for the Welsh Government and Welsh MPs to “step-up so Wales can get it’s fair share” and for Wales’ rail infrastructure to be devolved.

#DavidChadwickMP #HeartOfWales #railFunding #railInvestment #Railway #UKGovernment #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Claims Wales ‘short-changed again’ after Oxford to Cambridge rail link classed as ‘England and Wales’

The UK Government has confirmed that Wales will not receive Barnett consequentials from the £6.6 billion East-West Rail project between Oxford and Cambridge — a decision that has been slammed by the Welsh Liberal Democrats as yet another example of Labour short-changing Wales on vital infrastructure funding.

Despite the rail scheme being entirely in England, the Treasury has confirmed Wales will not receive Barnett consequentials from the project. Were Wales to be treated like Scotland, it could have received around £360 million in consequential funding to spend on transport projects in Wales.

The news that the project is to be classed as an ‘England and Wales’ scheme was uncovered in response to questions put forward by the Liberal Democrat MP for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe David Chadwick.

The news follows the UK Government’s controversial handling of HS2 funding, where the £100 billion high-speed rail project — entirely based in England — was classified as an “England and Wales” project, resulting in no consequential funding for Wales at all.

In contrast, Scotland and Northern Ireland both received full funding uplifts.

Northern Powerhouse Rail, which will connect cities in the North of England has also previously been classified as an ‘England and Wales project” depriving Wales of up to £1bn in additional funding.

Independent experts, including the Senedd’s Finance Committee and academics at Cardiff University, have criticised the classifications, estimating that Wales lost out on over £4 billion as a result of HS2 alone — money that could have been invested in desperately needed upgrades to Welsh rail infrastructure.

Until the General Election, Labour had publicly backed Wales receiving the HS2 money it should have been paid if HS2 had been classified as an “England-only project”. Since Labour’s Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens has repeatedly told MPs that she is fighting for fairer rail funding and to wait for the spending review.

Responding to the news, Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster Spokesperson David Chadwick MP said: “This is HS2 all over again. Wales is being denied hundreds of millions in funding that could transform our own rail network, all because Labour insists on cooking the books and pretending these projects benefit Wales when they clearly do not.

“East-West Rail is between Oxford and Cambridge. Not a single centimetre of track will be laid in Wales. Yet Labour expects people across Wales to believe the ridiculous idea that this project will benefit them, and they are justified in not giving Wales the money it needs to improve our own public transport systems.

“It’s a disgrace, and it shows there has been no meaningful change since in the way Wales is treated since Labour took power compared to the Conservatives.

“All we want is Wales to be treated fairly, to receive the same treatment as Scotland and Northern Ireland.”

#funding #rail #railFunding #Transport #UKGovernment #WelshLiberalDemocrats

90% of standard-rate PIP claimants at risk of losing support in Wales as it is set to be worst-impacted region

According to the data, Wales is the worst-impacted part of the UK.

Under the Government’s plans, from November 2026 people on PIP will be required to score a minimum of four points in at least one daily living activity to receive support with everyday tasks such as washing and cooking. Those scoring less will lose access to the “daily living” component, which for some will result in a full withdrawal of the benefit.

Across Wales, every local authority currently sees at least 80% of those receiving the standard rate of PIP at risk of losing support, with over half of Welsh local authorities seeing 90% at risk.

The constituency with the highest number of those at risk of having support slashed is Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney with 92% of standard-rate of PIP claimants not scoring four points on all categories of the Government’s test.

The data from the Liberal Democrats follows a report released last week by the Bevan Foundation showing that the levels of poverty among affected households in Wales could increase dramatically as a result of the proposed welfare reforms.

Wales already has some of the highest poverty rates in Western Europe, and it is thought that poverty costs the Welsh Government billions of pounds a year through increased pressure on other public services.

The Liberal Democrats said that it “lays bare the scale of the damage” the cuts could do, adding to people’s worry and “increasing pressure on local areas where these cuts go the deepest”. The party called on the Government to recognise the cuts’ “devastating impact” and “change course”.

Commenting, Welsh Liberal Democrats Westminster Spokesperson David Chadwick MP said: “These figures lay bare the scale of the damage that Labour’s cuts could do to some of society’s most vulnerable.

“Vast swathes of people in Wales could be missing out on vital support, not only adding to their suffering but increasing pressure on local areas where these cuts go the deepest.

“This is support that helps people with daily tasks that many of us would take for granted, such as staying clean or staying safe and also helps many people stay in work.

“The UK Government must recognise the devastating impact that these cuts could have and change course.”

Campaign group Disabled People Against Cuts (DPAC) are planning a protest against the cuts on Tuesday 3rd June in Cardiff at what is Wales’ only consultation event on the benefits changes.

The Swansea branch of DPAC say they have written to their MPs, demanding a public debate, and have asked Labour-affiliated trade unions to instruct the three Swansea Labour MPs to attend.

TSSA, a national Labour-affiliated trade union for workers in travel and transport, has supported Swansea DPAC’s demand for a fair debate with MPs.

Maryam Eslamdoust, General Secretary TSSA said: “The Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association (TSSA) strongly opposes the government’s proposed changes to Personal Independence Payment (PIP), which will negatively affect millions of people across the UK, including many of our own working members.

“PIP is not an “out of work benefit” and frankly, that distinction shouldn’t matter. It is a vital form of support that helps disabled people and those with long-term health conditions live with dignity and independence. Many of our members claim PIP while continuing to work in demanding roles across the transport industry, relying on this support to manage the additional costs that come with their conditions and to carry out their duties safely and effectively.

“This government is deliberately misrepresenting PIP in an attempt to pit the public against disabled people and deflect from its own economic. Let us be clear: ordinary people should not be made to pay for the failures and mismanagement of those in power.

“TSSA stands firmly with all those affected by these proposals, and we will continue to fight for a fair and compassionate welfare system that supports people, not punishes them.”

Speaking on BBC’s Newsnight in March, Swansea West Labour MP and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Pensions,  Torsten Bell said that despite the reforms “people with significant disabilities will be protected. They will. Not only will they be protected within the universal credit system, which is the one you’re mentioning, but they’ll also be able to apply for PIP.

“So people with significant disabilities, if they are young, if they’re currently receiving UC health, they will continue to receive it. And if they have significant disabilities, they will still be allowed to apply for PIP.”

#benefitCuts #benefits #disabled #SwanseaDPAC #UKGovernment #WelshLiberalDemocrats