Plaid storms ahead as Labour vote collapses in Wales

A YouGov/Cardiff University survey of 2,500 adults across Wales shows Plaid on course to become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since devolution began in 1999. Reform UK trails narrowly on 30%, while Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 10% each. The Greens rise to 9% and the Liberal Democrats to 6%.

Under the new proportional voting system debuting in May 2026, Plaid would secure 39 seats, Reform 34, Labour 10, Conservatives six, Greens four and the Lib Dems three.

Labour dominance shattered by poll shock

Labour has led every Welsh Government since 1999, but the latest figures show the party reduced to historic lows. Once the dominant force in the Welsh‑identifying progressive bloc, Labour now retains only a fraction of its former support.

Cardiff University’s analysis makes clear this isn’t voters abandoning progressive politics altogether — it’s consolidation. Plaid has absorbed the bulk of Welsh‑identifying support, while Reform has swallowed Conservative backing among British‑identifying voters.

Generational divide drives realignment

The raw data reveals a stark split by age. Plaid dominates among younger voters, winning 37% of 18–24s and 31% of 25–34s. Reform surges among older voters, taking 31% of those aged 55–64 and 30% of those aged 65–74. Labour barely registers across all age groups, peaking at just 10%.

Education tells a similar story. Plaid is strongest among graduates, while Reform leads among those with no qualifications.

Voters say why they’re switching

Plaid supporters overwhelmingly cite “standing up for Wales” as their reason for switching, with nearly half of respondents choosing that option. A further fifth back Plaid tactically as “best placed to stop Reform UK.”

Reform voters are driven by immigration, with 42% saying it is the party’s defining issue. Nigel Farage’s leadership remains a powerful draw, with nearly one in five citing him as the only leader who understands ordinary people’s problems.

What it means for Wales

The poll does not provide constituency‑level figures, but the national trend is clear: Labour’s grip on Wales has loosened dramatically. Even in traditional strongholds, the party’s dominance can no longer be taken for granted.

If these figures hold, Welsh politics faces a generational realignment. For the first time in a century, Labour faces the prospect of opposition or junior coalition status, while Plaid Cymru is poised to lead the Senedd.

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Banking lifeline finally opens in Ystradgynlais after three‑year fight

After years without a single bank on the high street, Ystradgynlais residents can at last walk through the doors of a permanent banking hub. The new facility on Commercial Street is the result of a dogged three‑year campaign that saw locals, businesses and community leaders refuse to take “no” for an answer.

The town was left high and dry in 2023 when Lloyds shut its branch despite posting record profits. Public meetings followed, petitions were signed, and applications were lodged with LINK — the body that decides where hubs go. The first bid was rejected, but campaigners pushed back, challenging the data and dragging regulators to Ystradgynlais to see the need for themselves.

That persistence paid off. A temporary hub opened in May, and now a permanent site has been unveiled at 14 Commercial Street, SA9 1HD.

How the hub will serve the town

After years of being left without a single counter service, locals can now walk into the new Commercial Street hub and deal with real people again. Doors are open Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm, with different banks taking turns to staff the desks.

• Mondays bring Barclays back to town, giving customers face‑to‑face access that vanished when branches closed.
• Tuesdays are still waiting for a banker to be confirmed, but campaigners say it’s only a matter of time before another name is added.
• Midweek sees Lloyds return on Wednesdays, a striking turnaround after the bank pulled out of Ystradgynlais in 2023.
• HSBC takes the Thursday slot, offering services to residents who once had to travel miles for help.
• Fridays finish with Halifax on hand, rounding off the week with another big name back on the high street.

Victory after years of pressure

The fight to bring banking back to Ystradgynlais wasn’t easy. Applications were rejected, data was disputed, and regulators had to be shown around the town to see the need first‑hand.

At the opening, local MP David Chadwick called it “fantastic news for Ystradgynlais” and reflected on the long road to success:

“After months of pressure, rejected applications and persistent campaigning, including personally showing the Banking Hub regulator around our vibrant town, I’m delighted we’ve secured a permanent, long‑term hub on Commercial Street.

“I launched this campaign to make sure communities like Ystradgynlais and the surrounding area aren’t cut off from essential services.

“Securing a permanent Banking Hub is a major step in ensuring our towns remain supported, connected and able to thrive.

“I will continue pushing to ensure that facilities like this remain protected and that no community in our area is left behind.”

Senedd Member Jane Dodds also welcomed the news, adding:

“Access to banking is not a luxury; it is a necessity, particularly for older residents, small businesses, and those who rely on cash. This hub will make a real and lasting difference.”

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Latest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck as South West Wales emerges as decisive battleground

The fresh Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru puts Reform on 27% (down three points since September), Plaid Cymru on 26% (up four), Labour on 21% (down two), Conservatives on 12%, Greens on 9% and Liberal Democrats on 3%.

Seat projections show Reform and Plaid neck‑and‑neck on 30 seats each, Labour on 24, Conservatives on 9, Greens on 2 and Lib Dems on just 1. That would almost certainly see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth installed as First Minister — either through a coalition with Labour or a looser cooperation deal.

But the real drama lies in the constituency breakdown.

South West Wales on a knife‑edge

The updated projections show how finely balanced the region has become:

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Reform, Labour and Plaid split the six seats, with Reform edging ahead on three. In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid takes control with three seats, leaving Reform on two and Labour squeezed down to one. Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is even more fragmented, with Reform on three, Labour and Plaid on one each, plus single seats for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. And in Pen‑y‑bont Bro Morgannwg, Reform and Labour again take two apiece, leaving Plaid and the Conservatives with one each.

This mirrors the trend Swansea Bay News has tracked for months: Reform surging in working‑class valleys and coastal towns, Plaid consolidating its Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion heartlands, and Labour squeezed from both sides. The new numbers show Plaid clawing back ground, especially among younger voters and Welsh speakers, while Reform’s momentum has slowed.

Demographic divides deepen

The poll highlights stark splits:

• Men lean Reform (29%), while women lean Plaid (27%).
• Young voters (16–34) back Plaid (31%) and Labour (28%), leaving Reform trailing at 14%.
• Middle‑aged voters (35–54) give Reform a commanding 36%.
• Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid (41%), while non‑Welsh speakers put Reform ahead (31%).

These divides underline the cultural and generational fault lines running through South West Wales, with Reform strongest among older, non‑Welsh‑speaking voters and Plaid dominant among younger, Welsh‑speaking communities.

From landslide to stalemate

Just months ago, Reform were riding high in South West Wales, with polls showing them pulling ahead while Plaid slipped and Labour edged back. Warnings from the First Minister that a Reform or Plaid victory could plunge Wales into “chaos” reflected that momentum. Now, the picture is more complicated: Reform’s surge has stalled, Plaid has recovered, and Labour remains stuck in third place.

The result? A looming stalemate. With no party anywhere near a majority, South West Wales’ six‑seat constituencies could decide whether Wales ends up with a Reform‑dominated Senedd, a Plaid‑Labour coalition, or another fragile cooperation deal.

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New figures reveal Wales set to lose £6bn in rail funding row

Billions lost, investment bypasses rural Wales

Wales is set to miss out on another £1.3–£1.6 billion in transport funding after the UK Labour Government confirmed Northern Powerhouse Rail will go ahead as an “England and Wales” project.

The scheme, designed to link Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds, will not include a single centimetre of track in Wales. By classifying it as “England and Wales”, the Treasury avoids triggering Barnett consequentials that would have delivered funding for Welsh rail.

It follows similar decisions on HS2, the high‑speed line between London, Birmingham and Manchester, and East‑West Rail, which links Oxford and Cambridge. Together, those projects have already cost Wales up to £4.3 billion in lost investment. Combined, campaigners say Wales could now be short by around £6 billion.

Scotland and Northern Ireland cash in

While Wales is left empty‑handed, Scotland is set to receive £2.7 billion and Northern Ireland just under £1 billion as a result of Northern Powerhouse Rail.

A Treasury spokesperson said:

“Wales will benefit from £445 million of rail investment over the next decade — the biggest ever funding boost for Welsh rail.”

Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens has also defended the classification of projects like HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail as “England and Wales” schemes, arguing that Wales benefits indirectly from improved connections across the UK rail network.

Welsh Government stresses cooperation

First Minister Eluned Morgan said:

“We will continue to press for further commitments, including electrification of the North and South Mainlines, which remain vital for Wales’s future.”

She added that the settlement would deliver “significant extra investment in rail infrastructure” and emphasised the need for cooperation between governments.

Opposition parties cry foul

Plaid Cymru Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP said:

“Wales is owed billions from HS2 and now Northern Powerhouse Rail. Labour has failed to address chronic underfunding of our railways, and our communities are paying the price.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth also accused Labour of leaving Wales “short‑changed again” and said the First Minister had “no influence” over her Westminster colleagues.

Lib Dems demand devolved powers

Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster spokesperson David Chadwick MP said:

“This Labour Government is deliberately depriving Welsh communities of billions of pounds in transport funding, whilst expecting a pat on the back for delivering crumbs.

Labour has the power to change the system and stop these funding scandals, but has made its position clear — they are happy for Wales to be left behind, paying for megaprojects in England whilst our own rail and transport infrastructure collapses.”

Mid and West Wales left behind

Local campaigners say the funding gap is most keenly felt in Mid and West Wales, where rail services remain patchy and major projects have stalled.

Carl Peters‑Bond, independent candidate for the new Caerfyrddin constituency in next year’s Senedd elections, said:

“We’re told Wales is getting investment, but Mid and West Wales see none of it. Communities from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth are crying out for rail connectivity, yet billions are being spent on lines hundreds of miles away. It’s a betrayal of rural Wales.

Both Westminster and Cardiff need to stop playing politics and start building the infrastructure our communities desperately need. People here don’t want excuses — they want action.”

West Wales line campaign highlights the gap

The row comes just days after campaigners renewed calls for funding to restore the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth rail line, axed in the 1960s.

As Swansea Bay News reported at the weekend, supporters say reopening the line would transform connectivity across West Wales, boost the economy, and cut car dependency. Campaigners argue that the billions Wales is missing out on could easily fund projects like the Carmarthen–Aberystwyth line, yet instead the money is being spent on rail schemes in England.

Creaking infrastructure, growing anger

With rail electrification stalled and public transport under strain, campaigners warn the funding gap leaves Wales at risk of falling further behind.

The row adds to growing pressure on Labour to explain why Wales is repeatedly excluded from consequential funding, while neighbouring nations benefit.

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Autumn Budget 2025: Welsh parties clash over Reeves’s plans

Labour claims progress, opposition cries foul

Welsh Labour were quick to claim victory on one of their long‑standing demands: the scrapping of the two‑child benefit cap. First Minister Eluned Morgan said the change would lift support for 69,000 children in Wales, describing it as “helping to tackle the scourge of child poverty.” Labour also pointed to nearly £1bn in additional funding for the Welsh Government, which ministers say will bolster public services and allow investment in steel transition at Port Talbot, AI Growth Zones, and nuclear energy at Wylfa.

Plaid Cymru, however, accused Westminster of once again failing to deliver fair funding. Treasury spokesperson Ben Lake MP said the Budget “proves that when Westminster does the counting, Wales always loses out,” highlighting the absence of Barnett consequentials from major rail projects and warning that employer National Insurance increases would hit Welsh services hard. Plaid also criticised the First Minister’s response, claiming she had “no influence” over the UK Government’s decisions.

Conservatives, Reform and Lib Dems sharpen attacks

The Conservatives seized on the Budget’s chaotic delivery and its tax implications. UK leader Kemi Badenoch told MPs there was “no growth and no plan,” branding the episode a “circus” and accusing Reeves of breaking promises by extending the freeze on tax thresholds. Welsh Conservatives echoed the criticism, calling for a review of Wales’s fiscal framework and warning that inheritance tax changes and higher employer National Insurance would damage family farms and businesses.

Reform UK Wales went further, describing the Budget as proof that “having Labour Governments at both ends of the M4 has been a disaster.” The party said Reeves’s measures would take taxes to “post‑WW2 highs,” framing the upcoming elections as a choice between Plaid Cymru, whom they accused of backing Labour’s tax rises, and Reform as “a new hope for left behind communities.”

The Liberal Democrats also joined the chorus of criticism. Party leader Ed Davey said Reeves “has diagnosed the disease but not administered the cure,” arguing that “you can’t tax your way to growth” and calling for a new trade deal with Europe. Former pensions minister Steve Webb added that the extended tax threshold freeze would drag hundreds of thousands more pensioners into paying income tax, warning of a growing burden on older households.

Together, the reactions underline how Reeves’s Budget has become a political battleground in Wales: Labour presenting it as a progressive step for families and public services, while opposition parties line up to portray it as chaotic, unfair, and economically damaging.

For a full breakdown of the Budget measures and their impact in Wales, read our explainer here.

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Reform UK pulls ahead as Plaid slips and Labour edges back in new Senedd poll

From three‑way squeeze to Reform lead

Just a month ago, Swansea Bay News reported on a YouGov survey that suggested a three‑way squeeze at the top of Welsh politics, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck‑and‑neck and Labour slumping to a historic low. The latest Barn Cymru/Beaufort Research poll, however, points to a decisive shift.

Reform UK has surged to 30% of the vote, pulling clear of its rivals and establishing itself as the largest party in Wales. Labour has edged back to 23%, recovering some ground but still far from its traditional dominance, while Plaid Cymru has slipped into third place on 22%. The Conservatives continue their downward slide, now on just 11%, while the Greens have quietly climbed to 9% — enough for a projected foothold in the Senedd under the new system.

When translated into seats under the new 96‑member system, the numbers would give Reform 37, Plaid 25, Labour 24, the Conservatives 7, the Greens 2 and the Liberal Democrats 1. That leaves no party close to the 49 seats needed for a majority.

Coalition arithmetic

The most likely outcome on these figures would be a Plaid‑led coalition with Labour, which together would command 49 seats — just enough for a working majority. By contrast, a Reform‑Conservative bloc would fall short, with only 44 seats between them, leaving Reform as the largest party but unable to govern without further partners.

A Plaid‑Labour‑Green arrangement would be more comfortable at 51 seats, but it’s worth stressing that the Greens currently hold no seats in the Senedd — so any such deal would only be possible if they do indeed win representation next May.

Updated Senedd projections for South West Wales

Compared with our September projections, Reform strengthens in Swansea‑based constituencies, gaining an extra seat in both Gŵyr Abertawe and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Labour weakens in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, dropping from two seats to one, while Plaid picks up in Afan Ogwr Rhondda. The most dramatic change is in Ceredigion Penfro, where Plaid is now projected to take three seats, wiping out the Conservatives’ Pembrokeshire foothold.

Regional and demographic divides

The Beaufort poll also highlights sharp contrasts beneath the headline numbers. Reform’s surge is concentrated in Cardiff and South East Wales, where it polls 37%, while Plaid remains competitive in North and Mid Wales. In the South West and Valleys, the three main parties are tightly bunched, with Reform on 28%, Labour 26% and Plaid 25%.

Demographically, Reform’s support skews older and working‑class: it leads by a wide margin among voters aged 55+ and among those in the C2DE social grades. Labour and Plaid perform better among younger and professional voters, while the Greens’ rise is driven in part by stronger support among women.

Language also plays a role. Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid Cymru (45%), while non‑speakers tilt towards Reform (33%). This cultural divide underlines the different electoral coalitions each party is trying to build.

Caerphilly by‑election

The timing of the poll is significant. On Thursday, voters in Caerphilly will choose a new MS following the death of Labour’s Hefin David. Labour currently holds 30 of the 60 Senedd seats, relying on support from other parties — particularly the sole Liberal Democrat, Jane Dodds — to pass legislation and the annual budget.

If Labour were to lose Caerphilly, its total would fall to 29 seats, making it much harder to govern. Even with Lib Dem support, the party would fall short of a working majority, forcing it to seek wider co‑operation with Plaid Cymru or others to get bills through. Local polling suggests the contest is shaping up as a two‑horse race between Reform and Plaid, underlining the scale of the threat to Labour’s hold on the seat.

Polling caveats

As with all opinion polls, these figures come with a margin of error — typically around three percentage points either way. Different polling companies also use different methods of weighting and sampling, which can produce variations in headline numbers. The contrast between September’s YouGov poll (which had Plaid narrowly ahead) and October’s Beaufort poll (which puts Reform clearly in front) is a reminder of that.

And, crucially, the next Senedd election is not until May 2026. With more than six months to go, voter sentiment can and will shift. These polls are a snapshot of opinion today, not a prediction of the final result.

Outlook: a fragmented Senedd ahead

Taken together, the September YouGov poll and the October Beaufort figures chart a rapid evolution in Welsh politics: from a three‑way squeeze to a Reform‑led race, with Plaid and Labour battling for second place and the Conservatives reduced to the margins. With no party projected to govern alone, the next Senedd looks set to be defined by coalition deals — and by whether Labour can steady its position in the months ahead.

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Welsh Lib Dems call on One‑Nation Conservatives to join them as party pitches to be new home of business

David Chadwick MP, speaking at the Welsh Liberal Democrat conference in Wrexham, accused the Conservatives of “disintegrating before our eyes” and abandoning their traditions of responsibility in favour of Reform UK‑style populism.

Chadwick attacks Conservatives over rule of law

In his keynote address, Chadwick pointed to Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch’s call for the UK to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights as proof that the Conservatives had “turned their backs on the rule of law and international cooperation.”

He also criticised talk of dismissing judges for supposed “activism”, describing it as “a government veering into anarchy while wearing a blue rosette.”

Pitch to business and entrepreneurs

Chadwick told delegates that as the Conservatives collapse, many moderate voters and entrepreneurs are searching for a political home that values both enterprise and fairness.

He argued that the Welsh Liberal Democrats are now the party of business and the economy, committed to free markets, free trade, and supporting small firms that drive local prosperity. The party, he said, would focus on cutting bureaucracy and post‑Brexit red tape, backing exporters, and creating conditions where innovation and investment can thrive alongside strong public services.

Call for ‘decent’ One‑Nation Conservatives to switch sides

Chadwick said the party would welcome anyone “who believes in decency, responsibility and a thriving private sector that serves communities, not just shareholders.”

“The Conservative Party that once stood for stability, enterprise and community no longer exists,” he said.

“It has been reduced to a hollow slogan machine, obsessed with culture wars, blind to community, and utterly lost on the economy.

“The Welsh Liberal Democrats are ready to take up that mantle. We are the new party of business; pro‑market, pro‑enterprise, pro‑community.

“To every decent, One‑Nation Conservative in Wales: You don’t have to choose between extremism and irrelevance. If you still believe in fairness, in community, in the rule of law and responsibility, in building a Wales with a thriving private sector, there is a home for you here.”

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Digital ID plans spark political row in Wales

UK Government sets out plan for smartphone IDs

The UK Government confirmed last week that a digital ID scheme will be rolled out before the next general election, due by 2029. Under the plans, every adult working in the UK will be required to hold a digital ID card stored on their smartphone.

The IDs will include details such as name, residency status, date of birth, nationality and a photo. Ministers argue the system will make it harder for people without legal status to work, while also simplifying everyday checks for services such as driving licences, childcare and welfare.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the scheme would “make our borders more secure.”

🖥️ What is a digital ID?

Digital ID card
Stored on smartphones, showing name, residency status, date of birth, nationality and a photo.

Purpose
Used for Right to Work checks and access to services like driving licences and childcare.

Rollout
UK Government says it will be introduced before the next general election, due by 2029.

Concerns
Critics warn of costs, civil liberties risks, and digital exclusion for those without smartphones.

First Minister backs rollout and demands Welsh flag on IDs

In Wales, First Minister Eluned Morgan has given her backing to the policy, telling BBC Wales she wants the Welsh flag to appear on IDs issued here.

“That is something that I’m definitely going to be pushing with the UK government,” she said.

Morgan added that she is pressing for additional funding to ensure the rollout does not disadvantage Wales.

Opposition brands digital ID a ‘red line’ for civil liberties

The proposals have been met with fierce criticism from opposition benches.

David Chadwick MP, who represents Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, described the idea of a mandatory digital ID as “crossing a red line.” He warned it risked undermining long‑standing civil liberties while doing little to fix problems in the immigration system.

Chadwick argued that the billions earmarked for the scheme would be better spent on clearing the asylum backlog through properly resourced processing centres, or on improving the NHS.

Welsh Conservatives have also voiced strong opposition. In the Senedd, Darren Millar MS challenged the First Minister to justify her support, claiming the scheme would cost Wales up to £1 billion in lost funding.

“Labour’s plans for digital IDs will not stop illegal migration and will come at an unacceptable cost to taxpayers,” he said.

Poll shows Wales more opposed than rest of UK

The debate comes against a backdrop of divided public opinion. A YouGov poll published on 26 September found 42% of people across Britain supported the introduction of digital ID cards, while 45% opposed them.

In Wales, opposition was stronger, with 35% of respondents saying they were “strongly opposed” compared to just 13% who strongly supported the idea.

Rollout due before 2029 with consultation promised

The UK Government insists the scheme will be free to download, with alternatives for those without smartphones, and says a public consultation later this year will help shape the design.

For now, though, the announcement has opened up a new political fault line in Wales, with the First Minister pressing for a Welsh‑branded rollout while her opponents warn of costs, risks and a loss of civil liberties.

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Wetsuit jibe lands Swansea MP in hot water with Lib Dems

The remark — captured on video and shared by ITV News Politics — has sparked a row, with the Welsh Liberal Democrats accusing Mr Bell of immaturity and hypocrisy.

Local criticism

In a statement, the party said that at a time when Swansea and Wales face challenges from the cost‑of‑living crisis to NHS waiting times and housing shortages, “playground insults” were not what people expected from their MP.

They also highlighted concerns that Mr Bell, who was selected for Swansea West last year, had “little connection to the community” and had focused more on building his Westminster profile than working with local groups.

Policy record challenged

The Lib Dems further accused Mr Bell of inconsistency on welfare policy. They pointed to comments he made at the Resolution Foundation, where he described the two‑child benefit cap as “immoral” and called for its abolition, contrasting this with his subsequent votes in Westminster to retain the cap.

Councillor’s response

Cllr Sam Bennett, a Swansea councillor and Welsh Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe, said:

“Swansea expects more from someone in national office. Swansea West deserves an MP who works with the community and shows respect, not one who hides behind childish jibes.”

He added that the Liberal Democrats would continue to hold Labour to account on issues such as the two‑child benefit cap, Winter Fuel Allowance and river pollution “without descending into childish insults.”

Video clip

The moment Mr Bell made the remark was captured on camera and shared by ITV News Politics. You can view the clip below:

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1972349159006187924

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• ‘Transformational for our communities’: South West Wales MPs react to £214m Pride in Place funding

  Local MPs, including Torsten Bell, hail major investment for regeneration projects across Swansea and beyond.

#EdDavey #insults #SamBennett #SwanseaWest #TorstenBell #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #wetsuit

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck and neck as Labour slumps to historic low in new Senedd poll

The survey, commissioned by ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, projects a dramatic shift in Welsh politics ahead of the 2026 Senedd election. It suggests Plaid Cymru would secure 30% of the vote, with Reform UK close behind on 29%. Labour trails on just 14%, with the Conservatives on 11%, and the Liberal Democrats and Greens both on 6%.

A Senedd without a majority

If repeated at the ballot box, the poll would leave Plaid Cymru with 38 seats and Reform UK with 37 in the expanded 96‑member Senedd. Labour would be reduced to just 11 seats, the Conservatives to six, with three for the Liberal Democrats and one for the Greens.

With no party close to the 49 seats needed for a majority, the findings point to a hung Senedd and complex coalition negotiations after the next election. The most likely outcome remains a Plaid‑led coalition or working partnership with Labour, given their combined numbers and closer policy alignment.

Labour’s historic dominance under threat

Since the creation of the Senedd in 1999, Welsh Labour has been the controlling force in Cardiff Bay, leading every government and consistently emerging as the largest party. The new poll, however, puts Labour on just 14% — its lowest level of support since devolution.

The slump comes despite Labour’s landslide at July’s Westminster general election, where the party returned to power in London. Analysts suggest dissatisfaction with the UK Labour Government’s early decisions, including its handling of issues such as support for Port Talbot steel, may be contributing to the party’s decline in Senedd voting intentions.

Small shifts, big consequences

The YouGov Barn Cymru poll provides vote share in percentages, which can then be modelled into projected seats. But under the Senedd’s new proportional system, even a tiny change in vote share could alter the way seats are divided. That makes the contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK — separated by just a single percentage point — especially significant.

Labour decisions fuel discontent in South West Wales

In South West Wales, the poll highlights how Labour’s recent decisions and controversies are shaping voter perceptions.

In Swansea, Labour largely held its ground at the general election, but the party faced criticism for parachuting in London‑based Torsten Bell as its Swansea West candidate. Now a minister in the Department for Work and Pensions, Bell has been closely associated with the UK Government’s proposed disability benefit cuts, a policy that has drawn sharp criticism from disability groups in Wales.

In Llanelli, Labour MS Lee Waters has faced sustained backlash for his role as transport minister, where he introduced the road‑building ban and the 20mph default speed limit. Both policies have proved deeply unpopular and continue to shape local perceptions of Labour in Carmarthenshire.

Reform UK has capitalised on this discontent. The party came within just 1,405 votes of unseating Labour veteran Dame Nia Griffith in Llanelli at the general election, and has since built momentum with two county council by‑election wins in the town. Much of that rise stems from the Stradey Park Hotel migrant housing controversy, where Reform was highly visible in protests against plans to house asylum seekers, including visits by then party leader Richard Tice.

Taken together, these developments suggest Reform is embedding itself in Llanelli and Swansea, reshaping the political map in areas once considered Labour strongholds. Plaid Cymru remains competitive in Carmarthenshire, but the new proportional Senedd system means even small shifts in vote share could have significant consequences for all three parties.

Corbyn’s new party adds further risk for Labour

The poll also comes as former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn launches a new left‑wing political movement with Coventry South MP Zarah Sultana. Though still unnamed, the party has already attracted support from Welsh figures including former Cynon Valley MP Beth Winter and ex‑PCS union leader Mark Serwotka.

The 2026 Senedd election will be the first held under Wales’ new closed‑list proportional representation system. Unlike systems where votes can transfer between ideologically similar parties, the closed list offers no such safety net. That means a vote for Corbyn’s party could reduce Labour’s seat share without boosting Plaid Cymru or other progressive parties.

Analysts warn that if Corbyn’s party polls even 5–10%, it could cost Labour and Plaid multiple seats — potentially handing Reform UK a clearer path to power.

What happens next

The Barn Cymru poll underlines just how volatile Welsh politics has become. For more than two decades, Labour has been the dominant force in Cardiff Bay, but its support has now slumped to unprecedented lows. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are locked in a contest that could reshape the Senedd, while the emergence of Jeremy Corbyn’s new party threatens to fragment the progressive vote even further.

With the 2026 election set to be the first fought under Wales’ new proportional system, even small shifts in support could have dramatic consequences for how seats are divided. What once looked like a predictable political landscape is now wide open — and South West Wales is likely to be at the heart of the battle.

Projected Senedd make‑up

Diagram: Projected Senedd make‑up under the new 96‑seat system, based on YouGov Barn Cymru polling. A dotted line shows the number of seats needed for a majority.

#GreenParty #PlaidCymru #politics #polling #ReformUK #Senedd #SeneddElection #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

Two‑thirds in Wales think politicians are ‘out for themselves’, YouGov poll finds

The survey found 66% of Welsh respondents think politicians are “out merely for themselves” — almost identical to the UK‑wide figure of 67%. Just 4% in Wales believe politicians primarily act in the best interests of the country, while 20% think they put their party first.

Little change since 2022

The findings show attitudes in Wales are broadly in line with the rest of Britain and have barely shifted in the past three years.

Across the UK, the view that politicians act largely out of self‑interest is shared by majorities of voters for all parties — including 63% of Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters, 65% of Conservatives and 68% of Greens. Reform UK voters are the most sceptical, with 83% saying politicians are out for themselves.

A long‑term decline in trust

While the figures are stark, distrust in political motives is not new. In 1944, during the Second World War, Gallup found 36% of Britons believed politicians were trying to do what was best for the country, compared to 35% who thought they were out for themselves.

By 1972, the proportion who believed politicians acted in the national interest had fallen to 28%. In 2014, a YouGov poll put it at just 10%, with nearly half (48%) saying politicians acted mainly for themselves.

‘A major point of concern’

YouGov said the results underline the scale of the challenge facing anyone seeking to rebuild public trust in politics.

A spokesperson said:

“The lack of trust in politics has been a major point of concern in recent years, both in the UK and around the world. Central to that loss of trust is the question of what motivates politicians — and the public increasingly sees them as self‑interested.”

#PlaidCymru #politics #ReformUK #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

Thousands of shoplifting cases go unsolved in South Wales and Dyfed‑Powys as charge rates remain low

House of Commons Library data obtained by the Welsh Liberal Democrats shows that in 2024‑25, 6,734 shoplifting investigations in South Wales and 946 in Dyfed‑Powys were closed with no suspect identified. That’s the equivalent of more than 21 incidents a day going unsolved across the two force areas combined.

South Wales Police recorded a charge rate of 25.3%, while Dyfed‑Powys Police charged or summoned suspects in just 13.6% of cases. Across Wales, 13,077 shoplifting investigations were closed without a suspect — around 35 a day.

The Liberal Democrats say the figures highlight the scale of the problem and the impact on local businesses, warning that shoplifting is “not a victimless crime” and that staff are increasingly at risk from persistent offenders.

David Chadwick MP, Welsh Liberal Democrat for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, said:

“These shameful figures show the impact years of cuts to our police by the Conservatives had on society. This Labour government must now right these wrongs and crack down on shoplifting. Shoplifting is at epidemic levels in Wales now, with many business owners feeling like it has all but been decriminalised and many retail staff increasingly being put in harm’s way.”

Cllr Sam Bennett, the party’s Senedd candidate for Gwyr Abertawe (Swansea & Gower), added:

“Shoplifting is not a victimless crime; it does a huge amount of damage to our local businesses and those who work in them. It’s time for the government to scrap Police and Crime Commissioners and invest the money in frontline policing instead. That way we can get more bobbies on the beat and stop this lawlessness on our high streets.”

The party is calling for the role of Police and Crime Commissioners to be abolished, with the funds redirected to frontline policing.

Wider picture

Retail trade bodies have previously warned that rising shoplifting rates are linked to organised crime as well as opportunistic theft, and have called for tougher enforcement alongside better support for shop workers.

#DavidChadwickMP #DyfedPowysPolice #PoliceAndCrimeCommissioner #prosecution #SamBennett #shoplifting #SouthWalesPolice #WelshLiberalDemocrats

From Westminster landslide to Senedd stalemate — new polling shows two very different futures for South West Wales

The latest Election Polling projection, based on late‑August Wales‑wide polling, updates the July MRP analysis we reported on 1  August. It confirms that Reform UK remains the leading party in nine of ten Westminster constituencies in the region, but also shows Labour clawing back small amounts of support in several key battlegrounds.

A tale of two systems

In Westminster terms, the numbers are brutal for Labour. Seats like Llanelli, Swansea West and Bridgend — once considered safe — would fall decisively to Reform UK, alongside gains from the Liberal Democrats in Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe. Even modest Reform leads in the low‑30s are enough to flip seats outright under first‑past‑the‑post.

But the picture changes dramatically when the same vote shares are run through the Senedd’s new proportional system. Here, Reform’s dominance is diluted: in most six‑member constituencies they take only two or three seats, with Labour and Plaid Cymru sharing the rest. Smaller parties like the Greens and Liberal Democrats also pick up representation where their support is concentrated.

Momentum and movement

Compared with early July, Reform’s vote share has dipped by one or two points in several Westminster seats, while Labour has edged up by a similar margin. These are small shifts, but they suggest the party’s earlier slide may have bottomed out. Plaid Cymru’s position is steady in its rural heartlands, while the Conservatives remain stuck in single digits across most of the region.

In the Senedd projection, there are no changes in South West Wales seat allocations since the July‑based forecast — but the Wales‑wide totals now put Labour and Plaid on 54 seats combined, comfortably above the 49 needed for a majority. That would make a Labour–Plaid coalition the most likely outcome in Cardiff Bay, even as Reform tops the regional vote.

Westminster projections: Reform gains from Labour and Lib Dems

Updated Senedd projections for South West Wales

Why it matters

The contrast between the two systems is stark. Under Westminster rules, Reform UK’s regional lead would translate into a historic series of gains, redrawing the political map of South West Wales almost overnight. Under the Senedd’s proportional system, the same vote shares would produce a far more balanced chamber — and potentially shut Reform out of government altogether.

For voters, it’s a reminder that how we vote can be just as decisive as who we vote for.

#Election #ParliamentaryElection #PlaidCymru #politics #polling #ReformUK #Senedd #SeneddElection #Voting #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Grassroots sports coach Dean Ronan to contest new Afan Ogwr Rhondda Senedd seat for Lib Dems

Dean Ronan, who grew up in the valleys and works with children in residential care, says his career has given him “direct insight into how underfunded services affect vulnerable families and young people.”

Away from the classroom, he has more than 15 years’ experience coaching rugby at all levels – from Maesteg Harlequins RFC to the Wales Women’s national team – and describes the sport as a vital way of building confidence and opportunity for young people.

Campaign priorities

Mr Ronan’s platform focuses on three main themes:

• Stronger communities – empowering councils, investing in public transport, and regenerating high streets in towns such as Maesteg, Tonypandy and Pontycymmer.
• Fairness and opportunity – tackling inequality in health, education and jobs, with targeted support for care leavers and rebuilding youth services.
• Inclusion through sport, culture and health – backing grassroots clubs, protecting leisure facilities such as Cymmer Pool, and promoting arts and culture across the valleys.

Launching his campaign at Maesteg Harlequins RFC, Mr Ronan said:

“I’ve lived here all my life and seen the positive impact supporting communities can have on people. We need to protect and improve our schools and hospitals, tackle the crisis in social care, breathe new life into our towns and villages, and ensure the local economy creates good, well‑paid jobs.”

Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds MS welcomed his candidacy, saying his “strength and experience” would be an asset in next May’s elections, while deputy leader David Chadwick MP described him as “a true local champion” with valuable experience in education.

The party says recent polling suggests it has a realistic chance of winning the new seat, which spans parts of Neath Port Talbot, Bridgend and Rhondda Cynon Taf.

Residents are invited to attend the campaign launch event at Maesteg Harlequins Rugby Club on Friday 29 August at 4pm.

#AfanOgwrRhondda #Bridgend #DeanRonan #JaneDoddsMS #Maesteg #MaestegHarlequinsRFC #NeathPortTalbot #SeneddElection #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Almost half of Brits say they would never swim in the sea – with the number rising sharply amid sewage scandal

The poll also found that less than a fifth (18%) of people say they would actually be more likely to swim in the sea if the Government meets its target of cutting spills in half.

Staggeringly, more people (19%) said even if the Government hit its target, they would actually be less likely to swim in the sea, with 45% of people saying they still would not swim in the sea.

People were also asked if they went swimming in the sea during the summer months and if they now would not due to sewage dumping. The poll found close to three in ten (29%) of those who said they go swimming in the sea now said they will not do it at all due to sewage dumping. This is a rise of six percentage points from 23% in just two years, when the same poll was conducted for the Liberal Democrats in 2023.

The Liberal Democrats said the figures laid bare a “coastline crisis” with people “afraid” of enjoying the British summertime due to rampant sewage dumping. The party said that the Government would not be able to end the sewage scandal without giving the planned new regulator the power to levy serious and higher fines and holding persistent sewage dumpers criminally responsible.

Previous data has shown that the Welsh coastal constituencies of Ceredigion Preseli, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Mid & South Pembrokeshire are all in the top 10 most sewage-polluted in the UK, with Ceredigion Preseli taking the number one spot. While the River Tawe was the most sewage-filled in Wales and one of the worst in the entire UK.

The same data also showed that Dwr Cymru was the worst offender of all water companies, despite its small size compared to many in England.

Commenting, Welsh Liberal Democrat Senedd Candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea & Gower) and Swansea Waterfront Cllr Sam Bennett said:

“This coastline crisis threatens to wreck Welsh summers, with people afraid of swimming in the sea due to rampant sewage dumping. These polluting firms have been let off the hook at every turn, and it is our local environments and people’s summer holidays that are suffering the consequences.

“In communities like mine, the sewage crisis poses a serious risk not only to wildlife and human health, but also to our thriving tourism industry.

“Both the UK and Welsh Governments have failed to get to grips with this crisis, and the public expect more than a job half done.

“The Welsh Liberal Democrats will be running on a platform to clean up our waterways for good at next year’s Senedd elections. That means a full ban on water company executive bonuses, higher and more persistent fines for breaches and for a strong regulatory body that actually enforces the rules.”

#DwrCymru #openWaterSwimming #sewage #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Welsh Government under pressure over paramedic recruitment shortfall

Concerns have been raised over a major shortfall in paramedic recruitment in Wales, with just 20 of this year’s 67 graduates set to be hired by the Welsh Ambulance Service — despite the service requesting 86 new recruits through Welsh Government funding.

The figures, revealed by Swansea Liberal Democrat Councillor and Senedd candidate Sam Bennett, have sparked criticism from opposition parties who say the decision undermines efforts to improve ambulance response times and risks wasting public investment in training.

Bennett, who is standing for Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea West & Gower), said:

“We cannot afford to lose these highly skilled professionals, especially not at a time when the NHS is under this much pressure.”

“It is shocking that despite funding 87 paramedic students, less than half will be recruited. That so few are to be hired is a scandal.”

The Welsh Liberal Democrats are calling on the Welsh Labour Government to urgently intervene and create more posts to absorb the newly qualified paramedics.

According to the latest performance data, 51% of red calls — the most life-threatening emergencies — are not being met within target times, while 33% of amber calls, which include heart attacks and strokes, are taking longer than an hour to respond to.

Party leader Jane Dodds MS added:

“The NHS is our top priority. Having already paid for the training, it’s a no-brainer that the Welsh Government should seize this opportunity to give paramedics more support and resources.”

The Welsh Government has not yet issued a formal response to the figures, but Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care Jeremy Miles has reportedly confirmed the numbers in correspondence with the party.

The Welsh Ambulance Service has faced sustained pressure in recent years, with staff describing the job as “soul-destroying” amid long delays, staffing shortages, and rising demand.

#ambulance #JaneDoddsMS #paramedicRecruitment #paramedics #SamBennett #WelshAmbulanceServiceTrust #WelshGovernment #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

New polling shows Reform UK still leading in South West Wales — but Labour gains

New constituency-level analysis from YouGov’s July 2025 MRP polling confirms that Reform UK continues to lead in South West Wales, but small vote share shifts point to signs of life for Labour in several key seats.

The updated data follows Swansea Bay News’ original projection last month based on an MRP forecast by research group More in Common, which charted Reform UK’s dramatic rise across the region. While the new numbers show the party maintaining its hold in nine of ten constituencies, Labour has recovered modest ground — most notably in Llanelli and Swansea West.

The full breakdown is shown below, with vote share changes since the previous projection in early July:

Westminster projections: Reform gains hold, Labour rebounds slightly

Reform UK’s overall vote share remains robust, but Labour has managed to reverse some of its earlier decline. The Green Party also shows slight upward movement, particularly in Swansea West and Neath & Swansea East. The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives remain in single digits across most seats, with Plaid Cymru continuing to defend its heartland constituencies in Caerfyrddin and Ceredigion Preseli.

Updated Senedd projections for South West Wales

A parallel projection for the 2026 Senedd election, using the D’Hondt method to allocate seats across newly drawn regional boundaries, reveals that Reform UK is poised to win at least two seats in every South West Wales region.

While there are no changes in overall seat allocation since the previous projection, a Green gain in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd suggests growing support among progressive voters under the new proportional system.

Momentum holds — but the race tightens

The broader trend is clear: Reform UK remains dominant across South West Wales, particularly in seats with high anti-incumbent sentiment. Labour’s gains, though limited, indicate potential for a more competitive landscape — particularly if national party dynamics shift.

Plaid Cymru continues to hold ground in its strongholds but faces growing pressure from both Reform and Labour. Smaller parties such as the Greens and Liberal Democrats may benefit from increased voter awareness of the Senedd’s proportional system, especially in more urban regions.

#Election #GreenParty #ParliamentaryElection #PlaidCymru #politics #polling #ReformUK #SeneddElection #Voting #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

New polling shows Reform surge – redrawing the political map in South West Wales

A new MRP forecast by research group More in Common suggests Reform UK is now the dominant political force across South West Wales, overtaking Labour in multiple constituencies and setting the stage for a dramatic shift in both Westminster and Senedd representation.

The July 2025 model, based on polling of over 10,000 UK adults, projects Reform UK to win 290 seats nationally, with Labour trailing on 126 and the Conservatives collapsing to 81. But the most striking changes are happening closer to home—particularly in Llanelli, where a once-safe Labour seat is now projected to fall decisively to Reform.

Westminster Projections: Reform Gains Across the Region

Llanelli: A Case Study in Reform’s Rise

The most symbolic shift is in Llanelli, where Labour veteran Dame Nia Griffith is now projected to lose her seat to Reform UK by a 29-point margin. This follows a series of local breakthroughs:

• In 2024, Gareth Beer of Reform UK came within a few hundred votes of unseating Griffith.
• In May 2025, Michelle Beer, Gareth’s wife, won a landslide victory in the Lliedi ward of Carmarthenshire County Council, defeating Labour by over 250 votes (full story).
• The Beers’ growing local profile has made Llanelli a bellwether for Reform’s national momentum.

Reform’s Local Ground Game: Beyond Llanelli

Reform’s rise isn’t limited to Llanelli. In Bridgend, the party recently won a council by-election in Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr, beating Labour by just 30 votes (coverage). That victory, combined with the MRP projection of a 22-point lead in the parliamentary seat, suggests a deep shift in voter sentiment.

What This Means for the 2026 Senedd Election

The next Senedd election will be the first under a new proportional voting system, with 96 MSs elected from 16 six-member constituencies. Based on current polling, Reform UK is projected to win the most seats in the Senedd—but not a majority.

According to Swansea Bay News’s earlier analysis (read more), the most likely outcome remains a Plaid–Labour coalition, despite Reform’s lead in vote share. This is due to the proportional system rewarding broad but balanced support across constituencies.

Updated Senedd Projections for Swansea Bay Region

These estimates reflect the July 2025 MRP vote shares applied to the D’Hondt method. Final outcomes will depend on turnout, candidate lists, and campaign dynamics.

A Region in Political Flux

The combined effect of Westminster polling, local by-election results, and Senedd projections suggests South West Wales is undergoing a historic political realignment:

• Reform UK is now the leading party in most local constituencies
• Labour’s dominance is eroding, especially in working-class and post-industrial areas
• Plaid Cymru remains strong in rural constituencies but is not expanding beyond its base
• The Conservatives risk being wiped out in several seats unless they reverse their polling decline

For more on how these changes could affect your community, follow the Politics section of Swansea Bay News.

#Election #MoreInCommon #ParliamentaryElection #politics #ReformUK #SeneddElection #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Swansea Labour MPs told to ‘grow a backbone’ over welfare cuts

108 Labour MPs have signed an amendment to the Government’s welfare reform bill declining to give the welfare reform Bill a second reading when it returns to the Commons on 1 July.

The amendment recognised the “need for the reform of the social security system” but called on MPs to continue scrutinising the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill “because the Government’s own impact assessment estimates that 250,000 people will be pushed into poverty as a result of these provisions, including 50,000 children”.

If the 108 rebel Labour MP’s amendment was supported by opposition MPs, then this would be enough to defeat the Government’s plans.

Campaigners have criticised the lack of public consultation with disabled people of the plans, particularly in Wales saying there is a “growing atmosphere of fear and anger” about the proposals.

It has been revealed that just 3 Welsh Labour MPs have supported the amendment, Steve Witherden for Montgomeryshire, Ruth Jones for Newport West and Henry Tufnell for Mid and South Pembrokeshire.

The Liberal Democrats have criticised the lack of Welsh Labour’s MPs from Swansea and the Gower or Neath signing the amendment despite it saying the region is set to be badly hit.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Swansea Councillor and Senedd candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe Sam Bennett has said that that Swansea’s Labour MPs need to “grow a backbone and stand up for the interests of their constituents”, pointing to evidence they uncovered last month showing that Wales is set to be the worst hit by Labour’s welfare cuts.

In both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot, at least 90% of people claiming the standard rate of Personal Independence Payment for daily living activities are at risk of losing at least some of the payment.

The Liberal Democrats say they have repeatedly criticised the proposed cuts to PIP payments and attempts by those in Labour and the Conservatives to mislead the public into thinking these are unemployment benefits when, in fact, the payment supports many disabled people staying in work.

The Party say they have also highlighted how Torsten Bell, MP for Swansea West and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Pensions, opposed welfare cuts when he worked for the Resolution Foundation, but is now supporting them as a Government minister.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Swansea Councillor and Senedd Candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe (Gower and Swansea) Sam Bennett said: “Swansea and Neath’s Labour MPs really need to grow a backbone and do what is right for their constituents and for Wales.

“Torsten Bell was happy to oppose welfare cuts when he worked for the Resolution Foundation, but now, when he’s been parachuted into Swansea and in a position to do something, he is silent.

“We all agree that welfare fraud should be tackled, but that’s not what the proposed changes do. Instead, they will cut the support that helps people with daily tasks that many of us would take for granted, such as staying clean or staying safe.

“This support actually helps many disabled people stay in work.

“I think it’s disgraceful that our area is set to be one of the hardest hit, yet none of our Labour MPs are willing to speak out.

“If these cuts go ahead, all it will do is move the financial burden onto local council services and charities, which have already been cut to the bone and are struggling to make ends meet. The Liberal Democrats will continue to oppose these cuts.”

#benefits #DWP #SamBennett #TorstenBell #UKGovernment #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Reform projected to have most Senedd seats – but Plaid and Labour coalition most likely Government

A seat projection calculated by the public affairs company Cavendish Cymru has looked at the potential outcome of the new closed list proportional representation voting system.

The results show that Reform would have the largest number of seats, with 34.

Plaid Cymru would come second with 30 seats and Labour trailing in third with 21 seats.

The Conservatives are projected 8 seats, with the Liberal Democrats on 2 and the Greens picking up their first seat.

While Reform would be the largest party, they would not have enough seats to form a majority – even if they were to form a coalition with the Conservatives.

The most likely outcome would be a Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour coalition – either a formal agreement or a confidence-and-supply deal. This would be dependent on Labour supporting Plaid’s Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister, however.

The results would see First Minister Eluned Morgan lose her seat, while former Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price would return to the Senedd, despite placing third on Plaid Cymru’s Sir Gaerfyrddin list.

Seat projections for the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd seat that covers Swansea East, Neath Port Talbot and South Powys show Reform picking up two seats, with Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Conservatives with one each.

In the Gŵyr Abertawe constituency covering Gower and Swansea West, Reform, Labour and Plaid Cymru would have two seats each.

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, which includes Bridgend, would see Reform and Labour each with two seats, with Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives taking one seat each.

Sir Gaerfyrddin covering Carmarthenshire would see Plaid Cymru and Reform take three seats each.

#Election #GreenParty #PlaidCymru #politics #ReformUK #Senedd #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats