🔍 Dive deep into national security every week with PR’s new podcast Sources & Methods!
#NationalSecurity #PodcastLaunch #Geopolitics #CurrentAffairs #Podcasters #IntelligenceAnalysis #NewsPodcast #ContentDiscovery
#IntelligenceAnalysis
Ever tried combining Large Language Models with Structured Analytic Techniques? It’s like teaching an AI to think like an intelligence analyst—minus the SCIF and crippling paranoia.
Dive into the experiment: https://sroberts.io/posts/llm-sats-ftw/
The accidental leak of war plans to a journalist is shocking, but it's part of a much bigger pattern, Trump, and even more his clown college of appointees and hangers on, mostly lack any knowledge of operating in a security/intelligence environment. There will be more leaks, and more, and...the leak adjacent. I listened to a bit of Trump's announcement about Boeing getting the new advanced fighter contract. There was this bit where he started to tell the price, because -- bragging with amounts is his jam, and then stopped himself. This was followed by "I can't tell you the price, because that would give away the size of it. It's a good size." He can't help himself throwing out hints to how "best" it (HIS accomplishment!) is. That's also his nature.
Now, I don't know the meaning of that, I'm an aviation watcher, but not an expert, or a foreign analyst with files of other information. but foreign experts probably will. His statements shrink the box of unknown into which foreign intelligence may be trying to penetrate (if it hasn't already leaked, possibly from earlier incompetence). It may well have provided the last bit of information to figure out the details of the fighter and its capabilities, or it may provide them a target on which to focus future intelligence efforts. And we know how he leaks secrets regularly to his wealthy peers, so this probably isn't the beginning of it, and it won't be the end.
Even as he was speaking the words, I could imagine the CIA and others safeguarding the fighter's secrets banging their heads on the table in frustration. Trump is an idiot, and telling him an important secret is like telling it a talkative five-year-old.
(Full disclosure, my wife and I have a small number of shares of Boeing in our retirement account, and even I'm not sure how I feel about trusting Boeing with this contract, but I trust them more than Trump.) #trump #intelligence #intelligenceagencies #intelligenceanalysis #foreignintelligenceservice #spys #secrets #boeing #boeingfighter #military #trump #intelligence #intelligenceagencies #intelligenceanalysis #foreignintelligenceservice #spys #secrets #boeing #boeingfighter #military
How private intelligence companies became the new spymasters. “The paradox of the modern world is that, while we have more means to keep our data secret, there is so much more data to contend with and so many more places from where it can seep out into the world, where a sprawling ecosystem of private intelligence can collect, analyse and use it.” #DataProtection #Data #Infosec #Intelligence #IntelligenceAnalysis #privacy #Surveillance
🕵️♂️ Did you know that the role of an intelligence analyst involves a lot more data crunching than glamorous missions? Sorry, Hollywood! 🤷♂️
If you're aiming to be a certified intelligence analyst, start with a solid foundation—degrees in fields like political science or cybersecurity can set you up for success. And don’t forget, certifications like Certified Ethical Hacker (CEH) are key to proving you know your stuff! 💼💻
💬 How important do you think continuous learning is in the world of intelligence? Have you ever considered this as a career path? Let's chat!
👉 Dive deeper into becoming an intelligence analyst in our latest blog post: https://guardiansofcyber.com/cybersecurity-news/how-to-become-a-certified-intelligence-analyst-everything-you-need-to-know/
#Cybersecurity #IntelligenceAnalysis #GuardiansOfCyber #DataAnalysis #CareerTips #CyberCareer #CertifiedAnalyst #Guardians #SecurityClearance #CyberJobs
Are reflective thinkers better #inflation forecasters?
After detecting a better measure of inflation expectations (https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13003), David Comerford found a reflection test question about interest predicted inflation #forecasting error over and above #math ability (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.06.011).
#economics #assessment #psychometrics #decisionScience #intelligenceAnalysis #criticalThinking
Agnes Meyer Driscoll, known as "Miss Aggie" or "Madame X'", was born #OTD in 1889.
She was an American cryptanalyst during both World War I and World War II and was known as "the first lady of naval cryptology." Driscoll played a key role in breaking the Red Book code, a Japanese naval code, in the 1920s. She worked on machine ciphers & contributed to the development of new cryptographic techniques and devices.
Autistic individuals showed no susceptibility to framing effects across more than 30 risky choices as well as higher acceptance of fair offers across 45 ultimatum game trials (on average) compared to “typical adults” (N = 52).
More evidence that #autism predicts “highly logical and less emotional decisions”: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10339-024-01182-4
#decisionScience #intelligenceAnalysis #epistemology #rationality #cooperation #psychology #psychiatry #cogSci #PhilMind
Intelligence Workshop: The Cardinal Virtues of Intelligence Analysis
https://encyclopediageopolitica.com/2024/03/11/intelligence-workshop-the-cardinal-virtues-of-intelligence-analysis/
🔍 Delve into the nexus of #History, #Geopolitics, and #Economics in #IntelligenceAnalysis! Uncover how these disciplines shape global dynamics and enhance strategic decision-making. 🌐🔎
🔗 Link to the full article ⬇️
https://medium.com/p/95ebfcb148c4
Larger groups often make better decisions than smaller groups, but what predicts better decisions across group sizes?
Considering more solutions to was the best predictor of better performance on a logic test (N = 500 conversations).
Even circling back to accept the group’s initial solution after considering others *also* predicted better performance!
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2402.01427
#decisionScience #socialPsychology #cogSci #logic #teaching #edu #learning #epistemology #intelligenceAnalysis
Are people intuitive Bayesians?
Much more so when *experiencing* than when merely *reading* #statistics.
So can poor wording explain part of that difference?
Yes! Sirota et al. found that people were 10x more likely to give the Bayesian answer to textbook probability problems if the standard wording was improved to cue relevant calculations: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2024.105722
#Logic #Linguistics #Pragmatics #Psychology #Math #edu #teaching #STEM #CriticalThinking #IntelligenceAnalysis #DecisionScience
Most of the 168 experts in #epidemiology and #virology thought a Zoonotic origin of the #pandemic was more likely than a research-related origin, controlling for confounds.
Of those who would change their mind if the last pandemic was conclusively found to have a research-related origin, the largest portion of them would change to forecasting a research-related origin (page 5).
https://gcrinstitute.org/covid-origin/
#publicHealth #epidemiology #virology #intelligenceAnalysis #forecasting #expertise #science
How has the #OSINT landscape evolved over the past half-decade, a period of immense geopolitical, societal, and digital change & disruption across the globe?
I just published an original analysis on the topic, a data-driven study derived from 5+ years of tracking thousands of #opensource #intelligence research tools & resources: https://metaosint.github.io/2023-osint-trends-analysis.html
The MetaOSINT project launched in 2021 as a tactical aide for researchers & investigators (explore the free tool’s two main features here: https://metaosint.github.io/). But after publishing multiple updates since, including a huge set of additions last month, it felt worthwhile to examine how shifts in the dataset might be reflecting broader trends & changes in the underlying information landscape
Key themes in the piece include social media OSINT trends, geopolitical resources (Russia, Ukraine, & more), and large increases in #disinformation & #verification tools and accountability projects. I know there are many more insights to be gleaned from the data, which is all publicly available, so be sure to let me know what you find after digging in 🔎
#MetaOSINT #intelligenceanalysis #dataviz #datascience #socmint #geoint #imint #darkweb #digitalprivacy
Discussing the case of Canada's disgraced spy chief claiming innocence. It's a fascinating blend of ethics, espionage, and the justice system. What are your views on this complex issue?
#Spycraft #LegalEthics #IntelligenceAnalysis
https://www.overtoperator.com/p/disgracedcanadaspychiefmaintainsinnocence
Point of View: Beware ‘persuasive communication devices’ when writing and reading scientific articles
#Intelligence #IntelligenceAnalysis
https://elifesciences.org/articles/88654
One big difference between public and private sector analysis is the role of recommendations. They're a huge 'no-no' in the public sector but are all but required in the private sector. This means that we have to wear both an #intelligenceanalysis hat and an advisor hat (mashing the analysis up with an understanding of the intent and capabilities of the organization to come up with recommendations).
This piece about the relationship between #intelligenceanalysts and #decisionmaking is worth your time. Some observations from someone who has had a very different intelligence career. Take from it what you will. 🧵
Yes, things would be better if decision makers learned more about the process, opportunities, and limits of #intelligenceanalysis BUT I can't help thinking every entity in an organization probably thinks the same thing.
Also from the #ODNI Annual Threat Assessment #climatechange #intelligenceanalysis
"More intense and frequent impacts from climate change also threaten to degrade high-income economies, hamper global trade, and strain financial systems. Droughts in 2022 decreased shipping capacity and energy generation in China, Europe, and the United States, and insured losses from
catastrophes have increased 250 percent during the past 30 years."
How well does #ChatGPT (and Youchat) work with #intelligenceanalysis? I ran another test to see how well it might work in gathering information about a person (me). It...didn't go well.
It created a work history made from whole cloth and gave me a family!
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