30 min talk by Johan #Röckstrom on the current state of #Climate measures and #EarthSystemScience at #republica25 #rp25
#Rockstrom
With every 1/10 degree of human-caused global warming, “we will experience more extreme events, particularly heat waves but also droughts, floods, fires and human-reinforced hurricanes/typhoons”. PIK Director Johan #Rockström on the new five-year #WMO forecast.
OUT NOW!
Groundbreaking study in Nature co-authored by PIK Director Johan #Rockström. Projections of the #Climate & environment up to year 2100 for different policy pathways, coupling the #PlanetaryBoundaries framework to the Integrated Assessment Model IMAGE
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/how-the-world-can-develop-without-ruining-itself
#Rockström.31.2
Der Klimawandel ist da und kann das Ende des Kapitalismus sein. Thallinger.
Verlust von 38 Billionen US-Dollar pro Jahr.
3 °C ist der Weg zum Treibhaus-Erde.
https://x.com/bratananium/status/1916885517204943002
https://www.facebook.com/groups/762610463921740/posts/2931552643694167/
https://bsky.app/profile/thomas-boettcher.bsky.social/post/3lnv5hupvqc2s
For #ClimateAction in the Global South: industrialised countries should now step up #ClimateFinance. “High-return investment” due to less climate damages. @Nature Comment PIK Directors #Edenhofer & #Rockström with #Kleinnijenhuis #Bolton #Zettelmeyer
⬇️
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/edenhofer-and-rockstrom-outline-pathway-to-more-global-climate-finance-in-nature
Brand new 52min documentary on #ClimateTippingPoints with
#Rockström, #Rahmstorf, @weatherwest #Swain and a few others.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8pLrRkqbb0
The scientists speak a little into the camera, then the filmmaker either illustrates the spoken words with aerial nature scenes or with clear, animated graphics.
English with English subtitles. I like it!
Again, the 7%-water-rule comes up.
Eye opener: 7% at +1.5C is more water vapour than what 7% was at +1C. Same principle as in how the rich get richer faster.
Not answered: most land mass has more than +1C, Germany in summer can be +3C, places in the Adriatic sea +5C this August.
So do we apply the 7%-rule to the local deviation from the normal in order to express or to guage the water hunger of the air in this particular parcel?
And also, what happens when the wind drives one parcel away after it drank its fill from soil, plants, water bodies, and a new parcel comes in, heats up to the local deviation, drinks its fill, and moves. I mean, shouldn't the inner continents be all dried up by now?
Or maybe the act of evaporation cools the place enough for a new parcel that moves in, to be sufficiently shocked into raining down what it had sucked up elsewhere...hm.
Anyway. Good documentary!
#Rockström's new TED-talk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl6VhCAeEfQ
Covers how scientists are very concerned about what's happening especially 2023/2024, also tipping elements, planetary boundaries, and how only with an intact nature with intact carbon and heat sinks can we hope to secure a safe pathway out of the quagmire.
I like how at the end, he emphasizes that it is his >honest< assessment that there's still hope for our civilisation to continue, for our success in getting back into all 9 safe and just planetary boundaries.
(His hope is based on the fact that we have developed solutions for saving wetlands, soil, forests, for energy transition and everything else. We CAN simply decide to implement them on time/in budget.)
I like how it shows that he keeps an ear to the ground, and what he hears then also finds its way into his talks. Holistic, aye.
Mit professionell erstellten deutschen Untertiteln. Human-produced subtitles also in French, Spanish, Portuguese, Arabic.
Heard of EAT-Lancet?
#EATLancet prescribes very low dairy, meat and fish, but not strictly vegetarian or vegan. Check it out, it might be something your steak-loving neighbor can adopt. https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/
#Rockström is in the commission, too and made sure that planetary boundaries are kept.
New paper: Li et al 2024, "Reducing climate change impacts from the global food system through diet shifts" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02084-1
"The present global annual dietary emissions would fall by 17% with the worldwide adoption of the EAT-Lancet planetary health diet, primarily attributed to shifts from red meat to legumes and nuts as principal protein sources. More than half (56.9%) of the global population, which is presently overconsuming, would save 32.4% of global emissions through diet shifts, offsetting the 15.4% increase in global emissions from presently underconsuming populations moving towards healthier diets."
Looking for a breakfast podcast?
I enjoyed the medium-advanced episode with #Rockström on Nate Hagen's #GreatSimplification that streamed 1 month ago.
"Even if we were successful in phasing out fossil fuels, we would still breach the 1,5 degrees Celsius boundary, if we do not come back into the safe space on the biosphere boundaries."
Meaning, we need a healthy carbon sink that helps us in temporarily parking our fossil CO2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaboF3vAsZs
A healthy carbon sink on land needs biodiversity and healthy soil, not mass extinction and forever chemicals. Did you know that tire rub-off from cars regularly kills 40-90% of the salmon [and other species of less direct economic value] in Canadian rivers after a rain storm? Stuff like this has to end or even our strongest fossil CO2-related action can't keep us in a safe temperature space.
"Es ist besonders ein Satz, auf den #Rockström in seinem Vortrag immer wieder zurückkehrt. 'Erdsystem- und Klimawissenschaftler werden immer nervöser.' Denn der Planet, so Rockström, verändert sich schneller, als sie erwartet hätten."
https://www.klimareporter.de/erdsystem/wenn-klimaforscher-innen-nervoes-werden
Gebloggt – über den letzten TED-Talk von Johan #Rockström: https://wittenbrink.net/die-strasse-ist-steiler-denn-je-zum-letzten-ted-talk-von-johan-rockstroem/. Ich hoffe, dass ihn auch einige von denen ansehen, die glaube, dass unsere Hauptprobleme Migration und die Rettung des Verbrennungsmotors sind. – Für mich ist die Konsequenz klar: Für ernsthafte Politik gibt es kein anderes Thema mehr.
#NateHagens new podcast episode with #Rockström ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaboF3vAsZs
Good questions by Nate, intermediate level answers by Rockström. About the 9 #PlanetaryBoundary , a bit about the 16 tipping elements, the inter-connectedness of it all. I hope, especially techies give this episode a go. Because: phasing out fossil fuels is not enough to successfully combat #ClimateChange . We do need a healthy planet to do this. An Earth system that helps us buffering the stress we caused by GHG.
Novel Entities kill biodiversity = land carbon sink functions less well. Nitrogen overload from fertilizer kills lakes and the Baltic Sea, also a carbon sink.
And so on.
We urgently do need to get back into and then stay within all planetary boundaries. PV and wind turbines aren't enough to tackle the #PlanetaryEmergency 🙂
Johan #Rockström receives the Virchow Prize 2024.
The scientific Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (#PIK) receives the reward for his comprehensive approach safeguarding both human and planetary health as well as for the introduction of the concept of planetary boundaries.
“If we phase out fossil fuels by 2050 and stop destroying nature, it will still get worse before it gets better. Because we are already in the pipeline of global warming … it’s inevitable today that we will crash through 1.5 degrees Celsius, probably within 10 to 15 years.” PIK director Johan #Rockström in an interview with the South China Morning Post.
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3256972/climate-crisis-countries-must-deliver-agreements-they-have-signed-breach-paris-agreement-limits
@PIK_climate Wir gratulieren sehr herzlich Johan #Rockström. Ein Grund mehr, das wunderbare Buch ##EARTHFORALL zu lesen.
Verkehrsforscher über #Straßenbau: Für die #Biodiversität eine Katastrophe
Helmut Holzapfel fordert im Interview mit der @FR ein Ende des weiteren Straßenbaus, um die Folgen für die Pflanzen- und #Tierwelt sowie das #Klima zu begrenzen
»Für Straßen werden Naturflächen versiegelt und dadurch entwertet. Die Folge ist ein luftdichter Abschluss des Bodens, wodurch das Leben darunter erstickt wird. Zudem verändert sich das Kleinklima, Asphaltflächen heizen sich stärker auf, und es wird weniger Wasser im Boden gespeichert. Eine aktuelle, als Buch veröffentlichte Studie des britischen Naturwissenschaftlers und renommierten Vogelexperten Paul F. Donald zeigt, dass Straßen und die darauf fahrenden Autos einen erheblichen, bisher völlig unterschätzten Beitrag zur Zerstörung von Biotopen und der Ausrottung von Tierarten leisten. Die Tiere erhalten aber unsere Landschaft und helfen, unsere Lebensgrundlagen zu bewahren. […]
Donald hat es für England bilanziert, wo die #Straßendichte vergleichbar mit der in Deutschland ist. Dort werden laut den von ihm ausgewerteten Untersuchungen pro Jahr etwa 30 Millionen Vögel, 200 000 bis 300 000 Igel, 100 000 Füchse, 74 000 Rehe und Hirsche sowie 50 000 Dachse durch Automobile getötet. Er schätzt aufgrund weiterer internationaler Quellen, dass in Europa jährlich insgesamt 200 Millionen Vögel auf Straßen sterben. Zahlen aus Schweden, wo ebenfalls genauere Werte vorliegen, bestätigen diese Schätzungen. Donald nennt das „#Roadkill“. […]
Ich halte die Klimaschäden durch Straßenbau für ein wesentlicheres Problem als die Schäden durch die Autotechnik, wenn man neben #Versiegelung und #Flächenverbrauch die negativen Einflüsse auf die Biodiversität mitberücksichtigt. […]
Tatsächlich gibt es weiterhin viele Kilometer Neubaupläne, doch auch Verbreiterungen wirken sich auf die Pflanzen- und Tierwelt aus. Tunnel oder Brücken für Tiere werden, wie die Erfahrung zeigt, nur wenig angenommen, und direkte Querungen der Straßen durch Tiere verlaufen meist tödlich. Die Rückzugsgebiete zwischen den #Autobahnschneisen werden kleiner; es kommt zu einer „#Verinselung“ des Landes. Für die Biodiversität ist das ein Desaster. In den Fragmenten zwischen den Straßen findet eine genetische Verarmung der Arten statt, etwa bei Schlangen bis hin zum Aussterben durch fehlende Vermehrung. […]
Der renommierte Klimaforscher Johan #Rockström, Direktor des @PIK_climate, hat jüngst bei einem Vortrag im #Senckenberg-Museum in Frankfurt auch aus Klimagründen eine sofortige „positive Naturbilanz“ gefordert. Das bedeutet, die Abnahme der Biodiversität zu stoppen und sie ab 2030 sogar auf null zu bringen*. Das heißt: Angesichts des sehr großen Verlusts von Biodiversität durch Verkehrswege darf eigentlich kein Meter Naturraum mehr für neue Straßen zerstört werden.«
https://www.fr.de/wirtschaft/fuer-die-biodiversitaet-ist-das-eine-katastrophe-92783330.html
@verkehrswende
#Bundesverkehrswegeplan #BVWP #Straßenbau #Traffication #Artenvielfalt #Biodiversität #SechstesMassenaussterben #Biodiversitätskrise #Verkehrswende #Autokorrektur #Mobilitätswende #RethinkMobility #Zündung
@MontyRunner
#Rockström hat bei der EAT-Lancet-Commission mitgearbeitet. https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/
Zu Fleisch steht im Flyer "for everyone":
"
* Embrace plants as a source of protein. Many plants are both healthy and sustainable sources of dietary protein. Aim to consume at least 125 grams of dry beans, lentils, peas and other nuts or legumes per day.
'Go easy on meat consumption. While meat is an important source of key nutrients including protein, iron and vitamin B12, excess meat consumption can harm our health and the planet. Aim to consume no more than 98 grams of red meat (pork, beef or lamb), 203 grams of poultry and 196 grams of fish per week.
"
Ich habe die Mengenangaben für mich pro Monat übernommen, also statt "per week" achte ich darauf, die Menge nur pro Monat zu mir zu nehmen. Die 125gr Trockenlinsen am TAG fallen mir total schwer. Soo viel.... 125gr schaffe ich in der Woche.
@ElisabethK @MichaChrist @werawelt @BlumeEvolution
@ariadne I think, hope is a basic human emotion and concept and it simply dies with a person's death.
Regarding #COP28 and your poll and our widespread negative assessment of it here in the Fediverse: it's a spin driven by #climate scientists and #journalists .
It's our choice to frame it positively. I like one particular item in the COP text: tripling of the renewables fleet by 2030. While the wording doesn't seem to target #FossilFuels, what it does in reality – if it is accomplished: it more than halves today's primary energy demand.
And that means: more than halving today's burning of fossil fuels.
Which is – as we all know – precisely what #Rockström 's Carbon Law tells us to do for a 50% chance at 1.5°C: halve global emissions by 50% each decade.
Let's choose to frame this COP item positively: "Hey, you national politician over there! 200 nations agreed to tripling the renewables fleet by 2030. Whatever else you do in your sabotaging mindset, you MUST triple our renewables! "
If we don't spin COP positively, that sabotaging politician over there is off the hook wrt tripling renewables. So I don't think it's in our best interest to spin COP28 negatively.
“We have a lot of evidence to say that a combination of #deforestation, #biodiversity loss and #temperature rise is a very dangerous path to follow.” PIK Director Johan #Rockström
on importance to protect nature & #carbonsinks such as #forests & #wetlands.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/11/fossil-fuel-phase-out-climate-breakdown-protect-natural-world-cop28?CMP=share_btn_tw
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