#probabilities

2025-11-28

WOW. This was an outstanding episode of Veritasium on the Power Law probability distributions (i.e. probability distributions described by an *exponential* relationship between the variables). I never realized these types of probability distributions are so common, and that they behave in such similar ways to each other.

Even more bizarrely to me, there appear to be many systems in nature that *spontaneously* organize themselves in a way to exhibit Power Law probability distributions. In fact, I suspect that “black swan” events are possibly a symptom of mistakenly perceiving a Power Law distribution phenomenon as one exhibiting a Normal or even Log-Normal distribution.

#math #physics #probabilities #blackSwan

youtube.com/watch?v=HBluLfX2F_k

2025-11-25

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20251121
This week the #puzzle is: A Loopy Holiday Gift Exchange #probabilities #coding #montecarlo #combinatorics You are participating in a holiday gift exchange with your classmates. You each write down your own name on a slip of paper and fold it up. Then, all the students place their names into a single hat. Next, students pull […]

stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/11/25/t

Microglyphicsmicroglyphics
2025-11-14

«half your species runs on flattery, deflection, and ingratiating little social manoeuvres»
philosophics.blog/2025/11/14/s
As a part of my ongoing dialogue with AI, where I prompt, 'Tell me what you really think', I share this gem; ChatGPT calls it like it sees it – or perhaps I've just ruined it for life. What do you think?

2025-11-11

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20251107
This week the #puzzle is: The Randy Hall Problem #probabilities #MontyHall You are a producer on a game show hosted by Randy “Random” Hall (no relation to Monty Hall). The show has three doors labeled 1 through 3 from left to right, and behind them are various prizes. Contestants pick one of the three doors […]

stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/11/11/t

2025-11-04

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20251031
This week the #puzzle is: How Much Does Game 1 Matter? #probabilities #combinatorics #PascalsTriangle #animation You and your opponent are beginning a best-of-seven series, meaning the first team to win four games wins the series. Both teams are evenly matched, meaning each team has a 50 percent chance of winning each game, independent of the […]

stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/11/04/t

2025-10-14

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20251010
This week the #puzzle is: Let’s Make a Tic-Tac-Deal! #probabilities The game of Tic-Tac-Deal 2.0 has a 3-by-3 square grid with the numbers 3 through 11, arranged as follows:
3 4 5
6 7 8
9 10 11
You start by rolling a standard pair of six-sided dice and add the two numbers rolled. You place an […]

stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/10/14/t

2025-09-30

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20250926
This week the #puzzle is: Can You Take a “Risk”? #ExpectedValue #probabilities #permutations #MonteCarlo Regarding Risk. At the end of each turn in the game in which you conquer at least one enemy territory on the board, you are dealt a card. There are 42 territory cards in the deck—14 that depict an infantry unit, […]

stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/09/30/t

2025-09-09

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20250905
This week the #puzzle is: How Low (or High) Can You Go? #probabilities #volume #area #random You’re playing a game of “high-low,” which proceeds as follows: First, you are presented with a random number, x1, which is between 0 and 1. A new number, x2, is about to be randomly selected between 0 and 1, independent of […]

stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/09/09/t

Centre for Population ChangeCPCpopulation@sciences.social
2025-09-04

We ♥️ #BSPS2025 - thanks to BSPS for a great conference!

Highlighting just some of the great talks from CPC-CG members before we say goodbye for another year: Hale on #racism & #loneliness in UK Asian communities; Finney on #EVENS; Butterick on #kin number #probabilities; Li on #intergenerational proximity; Lyu on #parental support & #homeownership; Nur on #childlessness & #kinlessness 👏👏

To find out more about CPC-CG research, read our latest newsletter: sway.cloud.microsoft/urKHaLPBn

Eric Maugendre about datamaugendre@hachyderm.io
2025-08-19

Logistic regression may be used for classification.

In order to preserve the convex nature for the loss function, a log-loss cost function has been designed for logistic regression. This cost function extremes at labels True and False.

The gradient for the loss function of logistic regression comes out to have the same form of terms as the gradient for the Least Squared Error.

More: baeldung.com/cs/gradient-desce

#optimization #algebra #linearAlgebra #math #maths #mathematics #mathStodon #ML #dataScience #machineLearning #DeepLearning #neuralNetworks #NLP #modeling #modelling #models #dataDev #AIDev #regression #modelling #dataLearning #probabilities #logisticRegression #logLoss #sigmoid #classification #differentialCalculus #loss

The standard logistic function squeezes any real number to the (0,1) open interval.
2025-08-19

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20250815
This week the #puzzle is: How Much Free Money Can You Win? #probabilities #bets #minimum #maximum A casino offers you $55 worth of “free play vouchers.” You specifically receive three $10 vouchers and one $25 voucher. You can play any or all vouchers on either side of an even-money game (think red vs. black in […]

stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/08/19/t

2025-08-12

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20250808
This week the #puzzle is: Can You Canoodle at the Coldplay Concert? #probabilities #geometry #integral #estimat #montecarlo All the many attendees at a particular Coldplay concert are couples. As the CEO of Astrometrics, Inc., you are in attendance with your romantic partner, who is definitely not the head of HR at Astrometrics, Inc. During the […]

stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/08/12/t

Allen Tien, MD, MHS mdlogix.com 94,698 田一彦allentien.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gy
2025-08-08

#DeonticDrivers: differences between strong population science knowledge and individual variations #Uncertainty and #Risk ( #Probabilities ) are #SolidFacts

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:7hbkhwuyjd23asbfy5axtu7d/post/3lvqh4rx52k2i

2025-08-08

"A variation of a puzzle called the “pick-up sticks problem” asks the following question: If I have some number of sticks with random lengths between 0 and 1, what are the chances that no three of those sticks can form a triangle? It turns out the answer to this quandary has an unexpected parallel to [the Fibonacci sequence.]"

scientificamerican.com/article

#Mathematics #Probabilities #Puzzles #Fibonacci #Sequence

Rob Seib (he/they)robseib
2025-07-29

AnyDice is among my favourite websites of all time. I've been using it to calculate dice probabilities for many years. Thanks so much for making it, @catlikecoding

anydice.com

2025-07-22

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20250718
This week the #puzzle is: Can You Meet Me at the Mall? #ExpectedValue #average #maximum #probabilities You and two friends have arranged to meet at a popular downtown mall between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. one afternoon. However, you neglected to specify a time within that one-hour window. Therefore, the three of you will be […]

stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/07/22/t

This article highlights the importance of linking extreme weather events with government actions and inactions.

commondreams.org/news/nws-cuts

I have some concerns with the presentation of this specific article that I'll attach as a follow-up message in the comment on this thread, but I'm glad to see this getting reported in this general form.

People need help to understand what's happening, and the peddlers of propaganda know this so will be right in there with their misinformation. It must be countered by good information in a form that is clear about what's happening, how to understand its implication, and what to do in response. Each of these is a point of weakness if it is left unfilled because the propaganda folks will be right there filling the gaps.

It's a horrible thing that DOGE (and now also the ironically-called Big Beautiful Bill that just passed in Congress) have done to climate funding in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other agencies in terms of cutting funding for measuring, tracking, and reporting climate and weather phenomena. This will mean, over time, a lot more incidents like the one this article reports, and one of the good things this article does is call that out so that people can see that having good government policy matters.

We used to have a world where we know a lot less about what the weather was going to do with us, and a lot more people were injured by weather for lack of prediction capability. It is a terrifying thing to think of returning to that, and outrageous to have to see it as a voluntary act, a self-inflicted wound, by our politicians.

See also my 2020 essay Humanity's Superpower for the importance of integrating science into our societal decision-making. That's increasingly under assault now, which can only lead to bad places.

netsettlement.blogspot.com/202

#Climate #ClimateCrisis #ClimateReporting #journalism #probabilities #weather #WeatherReporting #ExtremeWeather #ClimateEmergency #DOGE #NOAA #NWS #NASA

2025-05-30

Not completely fair, but maybe fair enough for games.

"Researchers have figured out how to design dice with even more exotic shapes, like a kitten, a dragon, or an armadillo. And they are "fair" dice: Experiments with 3D-printed versions produced results that closely matched predicted random outcomes, according to a forthcoming paper currently in press at the journal ACM Transactions on Graphics."

arstechnica.com/science/2025/0

#Games #Dice #Probabilities #Statistics #Objects

2025-05-06

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20250502
This week the #puzzle is: How Many Rides Can You Reserve? #probabilities #random I was recently a guest at Disney World, which has a new system called “Lightning Lane” for reserving rides in advance—for a fee, of course. By purchasing “Lightning Lane Multi Pass,” you can reserve three of the many rides in a park, […]

stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/05/06/t

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