#5

Jean-Christophe Dichantjcdichant.com@www.jcdichant.com
2022-10-23

Quoi faire si vos photos ne plaisent pas

La citation me vient du livre de Steve Simon, Passionate photographer. Pas le genre de photographe dont les photos ne plaisent pas.Il cite Georges Rodger, membre fondateur de l'agence Magnum. "Vous devez ressentir une affinité avec ce que vous photographiez.Vous devez en faire partie, tout en restant suffisamment détaché pour voir le sujet en toute objectivité.Comme si vous regardiez une pièce que vous connaissez par coeur depuis la salle, avec le public." Pas simple, je vous […]

jcdichant.com/quoi-faire-si-vo

2025-11-10

L’infolettre du 10 novembre 2025 : les critériums post-saison, l’Euro de cyclo-cross…

Les critériums ont-ils encore un intérêt ?

La tradition est désormais bien ancrée en fin d’année : après la présentation du parcours du prochain Tour de France, à la mi-octobre, une partie du peloton s’envole pour Singapour puis le Japon pour deux critériums destinés à faire venir les stars du cyclisme masculin à l’autre bout du monde, dans des lieux encore rares pour le peloton. Les leaders féminines devront, elles, attendre encore quelques années avant d’avoir ce privilège, et seulement si l’organisation du Tour se décide à leur proposer une excursion du même type un jour. Car si l’objectif est bien de faire la promotion du vélo en Asie, une moitié de la population n’a pour l’heure même pas droit à une once de représentativité. Le fun et les voyages, c’est pour les participants du Tour de France masculin, un point c’est tout.

Que ce soit à Singapour ou Saitama, le public présent semble bien profiter de cette grande foire aux multiples animations. Des activités typiques pour les uns, de l’adresse et des dessins pour les autres, quelques autographes et photos, des initiations au vélo pour les plus petits : l’objectif est de passer un bon moment de part et d’autre des barrières. Car pour les cyclistes présents, ces critériums sont avant tout des vacances, une part de la pause sportive qu’ils prennent en octobre et novembre avant de relancer la machine pour la prochaine saison. Il ne faut donc pas s’attendre à des cyclistes au pic de leur forme pour la course prévue chaque dimanche à Singapour puis Saitama. On n’est évidemment plus à l’époque de la pause totale, qui faisait prendre plusieurs kilos et nécessitait une cure de reprise par la suite, mais la forme n’a évidemment rien de celle des Mondiaux ou du Tour de France.

 

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Une publication partagée par Thomas Maheux (@thomas_maheux)

Alors, sur les critériums, la vitesse paraît logiquement plus faible. Et les attaques, programmées avant même le début de course, pour animer au mieux le public, sont bien plus poussives que ce qu’on voit le reste de la saison. Si cela était réservé aux seuls spectateurs sur le bord des routes, on n’en serait pas forcément choqué. Mais que ces événements soient retransmis en direct à la télévision et présentés comme des compétitions lambda offrent une autre perspective à l’événement. On peut ainsi voir en mondovision le sprint de Jonathan Milan à moins de 60 km/h ou l’attaque presque en facteur de Jonathan Vingegaard, quelques tours après avoir chuté sur la scène glissante du centre de convention de Saitama. Ou encore le retour de Ben Healy dans le peloton après avoir manqué un tour en raison d’une crevaison qui a pris plus d’une minute à être réparée… Les efforts sont risibles pour la personne qui tomberait par hasard sur ces courses qui n’en sont pas.

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Ces critériums sont évidemment des fictions, écrites à l’avance pour célébrer le succès durant le reste de la saison de ces cyclistes. Mais en télévision ou dans la presse, on ne titre pas sur le succès populaire de ces événements, mais bien sur… les victoires de Jonathan Milan et Jonas Vingegaard. Comme si ces courses avaient une quelconque valeur sportive. Comme si l’aura du Tour de France avait accordé une nouvelle importance à ces épreuves qui ne servent que de démonstration. C’est surtout cette médiatisation à outrance de la moindre miette cycliste qui pose question. Ces événements ont justement pour objectif de faire connaître la discipline, de mettre des jeunes au deux-roues et de leur permettre de rencontrer des stars. Les caméras ne devraient être là que pour un éventuel documentaire, une mise en valeur du voyage. Ce n’est pas pour rien si les fameux critériums d’après-Tour de France, par ailleurs de moins en moins nombreux en raison de leur intérêt toujours plus limité dans un peloton qui gagne de mieux en mieux, ne diffusent aucune image de leur course en direct. Le passage sur la ligne d’arrivée du vainqueur suffit largement.

Ces courses d’ASO sont un moyen supplémentaire pour l’organisation de mettre en avant sa force de frappe sur le cyclisme professionnel, d’asseoir une certaine domination médiatique en proposant quasiment gratuitement à un grand nombre de médias le direct ou des extraits de ces courses. Une série de journalistes sont par ailleurs invités sur cette tournée asiatique (NDLR : j’ai moi-même profité d’invitations pour le Tour de Turquie ou la Tropicale Amissa Bongo par le passé), leur permettant de faire des interviews de fin de saison. La médiatisation de ces critériums est aussi pour eux un moyen de justifier leur présence. C’est ainsi qu’on se retrouve avec une série d’articles résumant béatement ces courses, comme n’importe quelle autre du calendrier UCI. Même si la valeur des victoires est nulle.

Ces critériums asiatiques ont donc un intérêt pour le public local et peuvent permettre d’ouvrir des vocations, même si une étude devrait un jour se pencher sur l’impact réel de ces événements sur la population visitée. Le public international pourrait pour sa part être tenu à l’écart de ces pièces de théâtre géantes. Cela permettrait ainsi de ne pas décrédibiliser un sport qui doit déjà se défendre sur bon nombre d’autres terrains. Le divertissement a ses limites, il serait temps de mieux les définir.

Grégory Ienco

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Les Émirats arabes unis accusés de financer les massacres au Soudan

Certains argueront qu’il ne s’agit pas de cyclisme, mais ces derniers mois, l’implication des conflits internationaux dans le peloton a été particulièrement mise en avant, avec le cas concret de l’équipe Israel Premier Tech. Le soutien affiché du co-propriétaire israélo-canadien Sylvan Adams pour le régime de Benjamin Netanyahu dans la guerre menée sur la bande de Gaza (qui a fait plus de 60.000 morts côtés palestinien et plus de 1.200 morts côté israélien depuis le massacre commis le 7 octobre 2023 par le mouvement islamiste palestinien Hamas) avait mené à de nombreuses manifestations, poussant finalement Adams à se retirer publiquement. L’actualité internationale peut donc bel et bien avoir de réelles conséquences sur le peloton.

En cette fin de saison, alors que le Slovène Tadej Pogacar a été célébré avec une statue en or à Abu Dhabi, lors du premier rassemblement de l’équipe UAE Team Emirates XRG en vue de la prochaine saison, de nombreuses associations ont alerté sur l’implication des Émirats arabes unis dans le massacre de la population au Soudan. Cela fait plus de deux ans qu’une guerre fait rage entre les autorités et les paramilitaires des Forces de soutien rapide du général Hemetti. plus de 650.000 personnes ont été déplacées et des milliers de personnes ont été tuées, même si leur nombre reste sujet à débat en raison du manque de communications avec cette région coupée du monde.

De nombreux témoignages récoltés par des organisations de défense des droits humains ont fait état d’exécutions sommaires, de violences sexuelles, de pillages, d’attaques et d’enlèvements de la part des FSR. Une enquête du site Middle East Eye, ajoutée à une autre de l’organisation Campaign Against Arms Trade, indiquent que ces exactions ont été commises avec des armes fournies par les Émirats arabes unis. Des armes souvent venues de pays européens, comme de l’usine FN Herstal en Belgique. Ce trafic international est dénoncé, mais encore très peu mis en lumière, notamment dans le débat politique des pays concernés.

Si les manifestations pour dénoncer le partenariat entre l’Émirat et l’équipe de Mauro Gianetti sont encore loin, il est important de rappeler ces faits et de ne pas ignorer le fait que de nombreuses équipes cyclistes sont malheureusement sponsorisées par des organismes qui ne respectent pas les droits humains (Bahrain Victorious) ou qui participent à leur manière au dérèglement climatique (INEOS Grenadiers, TotalEnergies…). La problématique est connue, répétée, mais elle mérite de s’y attarder de temps à autre, pour ne pas simplement suivre le cyclisme sans esprit critique.

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Championnats d’Europe de cyclo-cross : le week-end des surprises

Le circuit du domaine militaire de Middelkerke, à quelques kilomètres du traditionnel Noordzeecross qui clôture chaque année le Superprestige, a offert un spectacle à la hauteur de son côté atypique. Un circuit rapide, et en même temps technique avec son passage dans les dunes et au bord de la mer du Nord. L’équilibre était difficile à trouver, mais malgré un soleil qui a asséché tout le parcours, le tracé a permis aux spécialistes de faire la différence tant sur la course à pied que lors de relances explosives ou de passages plus techniques sur le sable. La Néerlandaise Inge van der Heijden en a parfaitement profité pour aller conquérir le plus beau succès de sa carrière chez les élites femmes. L’ex-championne du monde espoir, aujourd’hui âgée de 26 ans, a pris un excellent départ et a profité de la bataille tactique entre les Néerlandaises Lucinda Brand et Aniek van Alphen, et l’Italienne Sara Casasola, équipière de Van der Heijden le reste de l’année, pour poursuivre en solitaire tout au long des 50 minutes de course.

Cette épreuve féminine a par contre été une vraie douleur pour la championne de Belgique Marion Norbert-Riberolle, larguée dès le départ et incapable de remonter par la suite. “J’ai connu beaucoup de stress au départ, mais je n’ai pas d’excuse. C’était la pire journée de ma saison”, a-t-elle admis au micro de la VRT, ajoutant qu’elle doit toujours beaucoup travailler mentalement à l’approche des grands championnats. “Je n’avais rien dans les jambes”, a confié celle qui a terminé en 13e position. La place de meilleure Belge revient à Laura Verdonschot (8e), pourtant elle aussi en souffrance : “Après un tour, je ne sentais plus rien dans mon pied gauche. Dans un bon jour, je devrais finir bien mieux. Mais la douleur est là. Un jour ça va, l’autre non. Je suis content d’avoir atteint l’arrivée”, a-t-elle indiqué à la VRT.

Côté masculin, la surprise est venue du Belge Toon Aerts, qui a dominé le champion d’Europe sortant Thibau Nys dans le sprint final, après une course serrée jusqu’au dernier tour. Les Belges et Néerlandais n’ont cessé de se rendre des coups sur les neuf tours proposés, mais il fallait finalement l’endurance pour tenir le rythme intense et s’imposer au bout d’un sprint parfaitement géré par Aerts, de nouveau champion d’Europe neuf ans après son premier titre continental. “Ma carrière avait commencé avec ce sacre européen. Et maintenant, je relance ma carrière avec cette victoire”, a lancé le coureur de 32 ans à l’arrivée, y voyant un signe, plus d’un an après son retour à la compétition après une suspension de deux ans pour un contrôle positif au letrozole, un produit qu’il a toujours contesté avoir volontairement ingéré. Le podium 100% belge est complété par l’ancien champion du monde espoir Joran Wyseure, confirmant son ascension parmi les professionnels.

Les courses dédiées aux jeunes ont été moins surprenantes, malgré des compétitions tout aussi disputées. Du côté des hommes, l’Italie a une nouvelle fois tiré le jackpot avec Mattia Agostinacchio qui a signé son premier sacre européen chez les espoirs (après les titres européen et mondial chez les juniors l’hiver dernier) et Filippo Grigolini, vainqueur chez les juniors. L’équipe belge a chaque fois dû se contenter de la médaille de bronze avec le favori Giel Lejeune chez les juniors et Kay De Bruyckere parmi les moins de 23 ans.

La Néerlandaise Leonie Bentveld a obtenu l’or chez les espoirs femmes, après avoir dominé la Française Celia Géry, blessée au coccyx et incertaine jusqu’au départ, alors que Shanyl De Schoesitter a obtenu une intéressante quatrième place. Chez les moins de 19 ans, la Tchèque Barbara Busková, déjà en argent la saison dernière, a glané le titre, là où la seule Belge engagée, Zita Peeters, a conclu en 15e place.

Notre photographe Alain Vandepontseele était à Middelkerke tout le week-end pour capturer les meilleurs clichés de ces championnats d’Europe : son travail est à découvrir en cliquant sur ce lien.

Les nouvelles des derniers jours

✍ Transferts

  • Comme avec ses sélections, l’équipe EF Education-EasyPost a attendu le dernier moment pour dévoiler ses futures recrues pour la prochaine saison. Elle a ainsi annoncé l’arrivée de l’Américain Luke Lamperti (Soudal Quick-Step), 22 ans, pour les deux prochaines saisons. Il comptera s’afficher dans les sprints et sur les courses d’un jour, lui qui a terminé cette saison 2e de la Bredene Coxyde Classic, troisième de Nokere Koerse, outre un succès sur l’étape d’ouverture du Tour de République tchèque. L’effectif sera aussi complété du Canadien Michael Leonard (INEOS Grenadiers), 21 ans. Le champion du Canada du contre-la-montre, présent en WorldTour depuis trois ans, a aussi terminé troisième de la course en ligne sur son épreuve nationale en 2025. Enfin, troisième recrue et non des moindres : le Slovaque Mattias Schwarzbacher, âgé de 19 ans. Le rouleur vient de la formation de développement d’UAE Team Emirates qu’il avait rejoint la saison dernière et arrive avec un sacré palmarès : un titre de champion de Slovaquie du contre-la-montre chez les pros, une étape du Giro Next Gen, l’Umag Classic ou encore une sixième place sur Paris-Roubaix espoirs.

  • Le sprinter allemand Pascal Ackermann n’a pas prolongé avec Israel Premier Tech et a paraphé un contrat de deux saisons avec le Team Jayco-AlUla. Après le départ de Dylan Groenewegen vers Unibet Rose Rockets, Ackermann deviendra ainsi le principal sprinteur de l’effectif, avec Jasha Sütterlin et Luka Mezgec comme poissons-pilotes. Ackermann compte 45 victoires UCI à son compteur, dont trois étapes du Tour d’Italie, deux étapes du Tour d’Espagne et un titre de champion d’Allemagne.
  • Le Team Visma | Lease a Bike accueillera la saison prochaine la vététiste autrichienne Katharina Sadnik, âgée de 22 ans. Celle qui a remporté la dernière Coupe du monde de VTT chez les moins de 23 ans souhaite faire une transition complète vers la route à l’occasion d’un contrat de deux ans avec la formation néerlandaise.
  • Lidl-Trek a complété son effectif féminin avec l’Irlandaise Marine Lenehan, âgée de 27 ans, mais venue au vélo il y a seulement trois ans. Celle qui a terminé troisième du championnat d’Irlande sur route découvrira ainsi le monde professionnel au sein de l’équipe américaine après un stage en cette fin de saison. Elle a signé pour deux ans.
  • L’Espagnol Jonathan Lastra, en fin de contrat chez Cofidis, rejoindra en 2026 la ProTeam espagnole Euskaltel-Euskadi. Le coureur de 32 ans, originaire de Bilbao, a signé pour une saison avec la formation basque. Vainqueur d’une étape du GP Torres Vedras en 2022, il n’a pas encore connu de succès au-dessus du niveau .2.
  • Dans l’autre sens, le Néerlandais David Dekker quitte cet hiver Euskaltel-Euskadi et s’est engagé pour une saison avec l’équipe continentale néerlandaise BEAT Cycling. Le sprinter de 27 ans, ancien sociétaire de Jumbo-Visma et Arkéa-Samsic, n’a pas encore connu de victoire professionnelle en cinq saisons.
  • Le Belge Jelle Vermoote (24 ans) a, lui, signé au sein de l’équipe continentale belge Tarteletto-Isorex, alors que le Français Quentin Bezza (28 ans) s’est engagé avec l’équipe régionale française SCO Dijon-Team Materiel-Velo.com. Le Français Victor Papon (24 ans) a pour sa part signé avec l’équipe continentale française Nice Métropole Côte d’Azur. Le Britannique Tom Portsmouth (23 ans) a, lui, trouvé refuge au Guidon Chalettois, une autre équipe régionale française.
  • L’équipe Modern Pro Adventure Pro Cycling, menée par l’ancien pro américain George Hincapie et son frère Richard, se dévoile un peu plus pour la saison 2026. L’effectif de cette future ProTeam (une demande de licence a en tout cas été faite auprès de l’Union Cycliste Internationale) se composera de 21 coureurs, parmi lesquels le Sud-Africain Stefan De Bod Terengganu Cycling Team), le Britannique Leo Hayter (qui avait fait une pause de près d’un an en raison de sa santé mentale), son compatriote Mark Stewart (Solution Tech-Vini Fantini), le Canadien Riley Pickrell (Israel Premier Tech), le Néo-Zélandais Ben Oliver (Mitoq – NZ Cycling Project) ou encore les Américains Robin Carpenter, Scott McGill et Tyler Stites.

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➡️ Prolongations

  • L’Australien Michael Matthews, de retour au sein de la structure GreenEDGE depuis 2021, a prolongé pour deux saisons supplémentaires avec le Team Jayco-AlUla. Le coureur de 35 ans a notamment brillé sur le Tour de France (quatre étapes et le classement par points), le Tour d’Italie (trois étapes), le Tour d’Espagne (trois étapes), mais aussi les Grands Prix de Québec et de Montréal.
  • Dans le même temps, l’équipe Liv AlUla Jayco a prolongé pour deux saisons l’Australienne Ruby Roseman-Gannon. La cycliste de 26 ans, présente au sein de l’équipe depuis ses débuts professionnels en 2022, a connu une saison plus délicate en 2025 après avoir remporté la saison précédente le titre de championne d’Australie sur route et une étape du Tour de Grande-Bretagne.

 

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Une publication partagée par Unibet Rose Rockets (@rocketscycling)

🏥 Sur la touche

  • Ludovic Robeet va mieux et c’est la grande nouvelle de la semaine ! Le cycliste brabançon a été victime d’un AVC en septembre dernier et se remet depuis lors petit à petit, comme il l’a évoqué sur son compte Instagram, avec des photos et vidéos en prime. “J’ai repris le vélo en extérieur et ça fait du bien. Il y a encore des hauts et des bas, des jours plus simples que d’autres… mais l’évolution est là”, a-t-il expliqué, sans donner plus de détails sur un éventuel retour dès le début de la prochaine saison. Robeet, âgé de 31 ans, est sous contrat avec Cofidis jusqu’à fin 2027.

 

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Une publication partagée par Ludovic Robeet (@robeet_ludovic_)

  • Toujours sur le flanc en raison d’un problème artériel dans la jambe gauche, le cyclo-crossman belge Eli Iserbyt (Pauwels Sauzen-Altez Industriebouw) a annoncé cette semaine qu’il devait à nouveau attendre quatre semaines avant de reprendre le vélo en raison de nouveaux examens médicaux à réaliser autour de cette blessure persistante. L’ancien champion de Belgique devait normalement faire son retour à la compétition en novembre, mais il semble qu’il ne pourra revenir avant la fin de l’année, au mieux. Cela sent la saison blanche pour le coureur de 28 ans.
  • La championne de Belgique de cyclo-cross Marion Norbert-Riberolle (Crelan-Corendon) sera pour sa part absente du Superprestige de Niel après avoir été renversée par une voiture à l’entraînement, dimanche dernier, au lendemain du championnat d’Europe. “Je suis sortie de l’hôpital cet après-midi après m’être faite renverser par un automobiliste pour refus de priorité”, a-t-elle expliqué sur les réseaux sociaux. Rien de grave heureusement : “quelques agrafes, le dos en vrac, des douleurs partout et un moral pas au top”. Désormais au repos pour quelques jours, elle reprendra ensuite l’entraînement et envisagera alors le reste de sa saison.

❌ Sur le départ

  • Après avoir annoncé l’an dernier sa retraite avant d’en sortir pour signer avec l’équipe continentale italienne MBH Bank Ballan CSB Colpack, l’Italien Fabio Felline a dévoilé sur son compte Facebook qu’il pend officiellement son vélo au clou. Le sprinteur de 35 ans n’a participé qu’à sept courses professionnelles pour sa seizième et dernière saison dans le peloton. Felline a notamment remporté le classement par points de la Vuelta en 2016, mais aussi une étape du Tour du Pays Basque, le Trophée Laigueglia, une étape du Tour de Romandie et deux fois le Memorial Marco Pantani, dont son dernier succès en 2020.

📅 Programme

  • Blessée en septembre dernier sur le Tour de l’Ardèche, l’ex-championne du monde sur route Lotte Kopecky fera son retour à la compétition après une pause de deux mois. Celle qui avait indiqué qu’elle ne courrait plus cette saison a finalement accordé une exception à l’organisation des Six Jours de Gand, pour le programme féminin prévu les 21 et 22 novembre. Elle y défendra son titre, remporté durant trois années consécutives, face notamment à Shari Bossuyt, Katrijn De Clercq ou Marith Vanhove.
  • Gand-Wevelgem change de nom et de lieu : la course masculine se nommera dès la saison prochaine “In Flanders Fields – from Middelkerke to Wevelgem” et partira, comme son nom l’indique, de Middelkerke, sur la Côte belge (où ont été disputés ce week-end les championnats d’Europe de cyclo-cross. Ce lieu de départ, qui remplace Ypres, a été choisi pour les dix prochaines années. L’épreuve féminine partira pour sa part de Wevelgem pour un retour dans la cité flandrienne. Les courses de jeunes, prévues en mai, resteront pour leur part avec un départ à Ypres jusqu’à Wevelgem. Les Moëres, le Mont Kemmel et les Plugstreets, ces chemins de terre autour des champs et cimetières de la Première guerre mondiale, resteront bien dans le parcours, a précisé l’organisateur Flanders Classics.
  • Les organisateurs du Samyn ont annoncé que leur course qui ouvrira la saison wallonne se déroulera désormais sur deux jours : l’épreuve féminine sera organisée le lundi 2 mars, avant la course masculine prévue le mardi 3 mars. Un changement sera par ailleurs prévu sur le parcours : le Pavé du Vert Pignon à Fayt-le-Franc laissera place à la rue du Paris à Athis. Les femmes couvriront 13 kilomètres sur les pavés, contre 21 kilomètres pour les hommes.
  • La fédération colombienne de cyclisme indique que le Tour Colombia, la course par étapes 2.1 qui a été organisée à quatre reprises entre 2018 et 2024, n’aura pas lieu en 2026. L’organisation évoque des contraintes techniques, logistiques et budgétaires, notamment autour du logement et du transport des équipes WorldTour et ProTeams. L’objectif reste toutefois de relancer l’épreuve les années suivantes. Le Colombien Rodrigo Contreras est le dernier vainqueur d’une course également remportée par ses compatriotes Sergio Higuita, Miguel Ángel López et Egan Bernal.
  • Le Tour de Norvège masculin va-t-il disparaître la saison prochaine ? L’organisation a en tout cas déclaré à TV2 Sport sa surprise à l’annonce du gouvernement norvégien de la fin d’un programme de subventions qui risque de lui couper la moitié de son budget, soit environ 850.000 euros. Le projet de budget doit être validé en décembre, et l’organisation norvégienne espère encore trouver un terrain d’entente d’ici cette période cruciale.
  • L’édition masculine du Challenge de Majorque connaîtra l’an prochain un contre-la-montre par équipes : le quotidien local Ultima Hora annonce que l’organisation a décidé de signer le retour de cette discipline, 35 ans après sa disparition. Sur l’une des différentes manches de l’épreuve majorquine prévue du 28 janvier au 1er février, un chrono de 26 kilomètres se tiendra le 29 janvier entre Ses Salines et la Colonia de Sant Jordi. Alors que cette discipline est de plus en plus boudée, l’idée est intriguante.

🖤 Carnet noir

🤑 Économie

  • Sacré coup sur la tête de l’équipe Israel-Premier Tech : après l’annonce du retrait de toute mention d’Israël et du recul du co-propriétaire Sylvan Adams, c’est le partenaire canadien Premier Tech qui a annoncé cette semaine sa décision de ne plus rester sponsor de l’équipe cycliste qui devrait être la saison prochaine dans le WorldTour. “Il est intenable de continuer”, a commenté l’entreprise, partenaire depuis 2022. Aucune information n’a filtré sur d’éventuels nouveaux sponsors de l’équipe israélienne, qui a fait une demande de licence WorldTour pour les trois prochaines saisons.

💉 Dopage

  • L’Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI) a suspendu provisoirement le Portugais António Carvalho Ferreira en raison de multiples “anomalies non-expliquées” dans son passeport biologique durant les saisons 2018, 2023 et 2024. Le cycliste de 36 ans est bien connu du circuit lusitanien, s’étant notamment classé troisième du Tour du Portugal en 2022 et 2023, avec notamment trois victoires d’étape dans sa besace entre 2019 et 2022.

📌 Autres

  • Greg Van Avermaet continue de réaliser des performances de choix malgré sa retraite professionnelle : désormais actif sur le circuit gravel et sur le triathlon, le Waeslandien de 40 ans est devenu dimanche dernier champion du monde de triathlon sur l’Ironman 70.3 dans la catégorie 40-44 ans. Le champion olympique de cyclisme sur route (en 2016) a bouclé un demi-Ironman (1,9 km de natation, 90 km à vélo, 21 km à pied) en 4h15:56 sur le tracé exigeant de Marbella, en Espagne. Tout ça deux semaines après avoir terminé cinquième du gravel de Louvain et trois semaines après une 19e place aux championnats du monde de gravel, parmi les professionnels.

À lire, voir, écouter…

  • Dans un entretien accordé à Cyclingnews, le Mexicain Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates XRG) est longuement revenu sur cette fameuse 20e étape du Tour d’Italie sur laquelle il a perdu le maillot rose, laissant le Britannique Simon Yates (Team Visma | Lease a Bike) filer vers la victoire finale. Le jeune coureur de 21 ans explique qu’il a “fait des erreurs”, qu’il n’a pas “roulé comme il fallait, en raison de (son) inexpérience”. Il indique avoir tout simplement… manqué le fait que Wout van Aert était dans l’échappée matinale, ce qui a permis à Yates de profiter d’un avantage conséquent en tête de course. Il blâme également sa direction sportive de l’avoir prévenu que Yates et Van Aert étaient devant seulement quand l’écart était déjà de près d’une minute. “Ils auraient dû me le dire quand il n’y avait que 10 secondes”, estime-t-il, ajoutant que sa première faute était d’avoir oublié Van Aert à l’avant. L’interview (en anglais) est à lire en cliquant sur ce lien.

  • On pense rarement aux coureurs en fin de contrat qui espèrent jusqu’au dernier moment obtenir un appel qui leur permettra de continuer leur carrière. Surtout en cette période difficile, avec des disparitions d’équipes et des fusions qui tardent. L’Équipe a interrogé plusieurs coureurs qui ont signé tardivement un contrat, qui ont accepté de descendre à un niveau inférieur ou qui attendent toujours un miracle pour 2026. L’article (derrière abonnement) est à lire en cliquant sur ce lien.
  • Dans le même ordre d’idée, L’Équipe a sondé celles et ceux qui quittent Arkéa-B&B Hôtels, actant ce qui n’a toujours pas été officialisé par communiqué : l’équipe bretonne d’Emmanuel Hubert ne reviendra pas, même sous une forme réduite, la saison prochaine. Mais certains membres du staff espèrent encore se recaser dans le peloton. C’est à lire (derrière abonnement) en cliquant sur ce lien.
  • Le blogueur Inrng a épluché les comptes de l’équipe française Decathlon Ag2r La Mondiale en 2024 et on y apprend toujours des choses intéressantes sur le fonctionnement d’une équipe cycliste, surtout une formation qui cherche justement à faire grandir son budget pour se faire une meilleure place au WorldTour. On y découvre notamment à quel point la masse salariale a largement évolué et comment une équipe qui a pourtant connu une belle saison (en 2024) a pu enregistrer quelques pertes. L’article (en anglais) est à lire en cliquant sur ce lien.

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L’agenda des prochains jours

Mardi 11 novembre

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#3 #4 #5 #ASO #ChampionnatsDEurope #CritériumDeSaitama #CritériumDeSingapour #CyclismeSurRoute #cycloCross #Euro #middelkerke #TourDeFrance #UEC

Le Danois Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma | Lease a Bike) à la veille du critérium du Tour de France à Saitama, le 8 novembre 2025. - Photo : ASO/Thomas Maheux
2025-11-09

Ein besseres Champions League-Format ist möglich

Seien wir uns ehrlich. Die Champions League ist im Eimer. Die Ligaphase war eine grauenvolle Idee. Eine bessere Idee wäre leicht zu finden.

Du siehst das nicht so? Dann lass mich das Problem des heutigen Bewerbs erst einmal erklären.

1. Der Ligaphasen-Modus hat keine klare Aussage

Ich gestehe, das ist ein bisschen ein Quirk von mir, aber ich mag es, wenn man am Ende eines Bewerbs weiß, was er aussagt. Eine Meisterschaft kürt das beste Team. Ein Pokal oder K.O.-Modus kürt das Team, das es auch in harten Zeiten durch einzelne Ausscheidungsspiele schafft. Eine Gruppenphase kürt das beste Team einer Gruppe.

Was tut die CL-Ligaphase? Das ist schwer zu erklären, denn was sie wirklich aussagt, weiß niemand. Es ist keine Liga, auch wenn sie so tut. Am Ende stehen schon gute Teams oben und schlechte unten, aber nicht das beste Team ganz oben und nicht das schlechteste ganz unten. Und in der Mitte herrscht Zufall.

Ohne direkte Duelle zwischen rivalisierenden Teams zu haben, waren 2024/25 dann 11 Punkte für ein Team entweder genug (ManCity als 22.) und für ein anderes eben nicht (Dinamo Zagreb als 25). Paris SG holte mit nur zwei Punkten mehr als Zagreb später sogar den Titel. Ganz ehrlich: Das ist einfach beliebig und lächerlich.

Der Grund ist einfach. Bei weitem nicht jeder spielt gegen jeden. 36 Teams haben je 8 völlig unterschiedliche Spiele. Das allein ist schon eine völlig willkürliche Zahl an Matches. 6 oder 10 Spieltage auszutragen würde nicht mehr oder weniger Sinn ergeben, aber trotzdem ganz andere Ergebnisse bringen.

Und all das nur, um Teams dann irgendwie trotz ungleicher Spielpläne miteinander zu vergleichen und zu reihen und eh wieder 24 Aufsteiger zu bestimmen. Rausfliegen tun Teams, die ehrlicherweise nie auch nur die entfernteste Chance hatten, den Bewerb zu gewinnen. Als wäre die Ligaphase eine fortgesetzte Qualifikation.

2. In der Ligaphase gibt es zu viele Spiele – und zu viele sind bedeutungslos

Der Modus führt dazu, dass dutzende Spiele jede Saison komplett bedeutungslos werden. Ein bis zwei Runden vor Schluss sind viele Aufsteiger und viele Rausflüge bereits fix. Spiele zwischen ihnen sind … für nix. Sowas kann in den meisten Formaten passieren, aber es ist kein Ziel eines Modus. Es ist fad und unnötig.

3. Zahlreiche Spiele können das Ergebnis verzerren

Noch schlimmer als ein ganz bedeutungsloses Spiel ist: Zahlreiche Spiele sind nur für ein beteiligtes Team egal. Bei einer Reihung über nur 8 Runden kann sowas einzelne Teams extrem bevorteilen. Die haben plötzlich in 1-2 Spielen weniger Gegenwehr zu befürchten, während die direkte Konkurrenz an den letzten Spieltagen mit anderen noch bemühten Team um die Wurst spielen muss.

Weil es für eine Liga-Reihung dann eben sehr wenige Spiele gibt, reicht es schon, wenn das nur selten passiert. Mit 16 Punkten kann man schließlich fix weiter sein, mit 11 Punkten fix draußen. Das ist keine Theorie – das war gleich in der ersten Saison so.

4. Die Platzierung ist für die meisten Teams ziemlich egal

Wer die “Ligaphase” gewinnt, ist völlig bedeutungslos. Man gewinnt damit nichts. Die ersten 8 Teams werden genau gleich belohnt (sie haben zwei Spiele weniger im Frühjahr). Aber wer die Ligaphase gewinnt, kann trotzdem in der ersten Runde danach gegen den künftigen Sieger gelost werden. Auch das ist gleich im ersten Jahr passiert.

Das Aus von Liverpool im Elfmeterschießen gegen Paris SG im Vorjahr gibt einen Vorgeschmack darauf, was so ähnlich öfter passieren wird. Liverpool war mit der 2. Niederlage in 10 Spielen plötzlich ausgeschieden, Paris hatte gegen Liverpool bereits das 4. Spiel verloren und einmal Remis gespielt. Trotzdem war man weiter – und hat den Bewerb amit 5 Niederlagen und einem Unentschieden in 17 Spielen gewonnen.

Im Frühjahr war das Spiel der Franzosen natürlich irre gut. Im ganzen Herbst eher unerfolgreicher Müll. Nur Salzburg und Girona wurden besiegt, die 4 anderen der 6 Spiele hat der spätere Titelgewinner nicht gewonnen. Aber die halbe Saison zu verpennen ist in diesem Modus egal.

5. Das Playoff ist ein Witz

Auch hinter den Top 8 spielt die Positionierung keine große Rolle. Es ist zwar theoretisch besser, wenn man zwischen Platz 9 und 16 landet, weil man dann gegen ein “schlechteres “ Team antritt, dass zwischen Platz 17 und 24 gelandet ist, aber tatsächlich ist der Unterschied gering.

Einzelne Ergebnisse können dazu führen, dass man auch als 9. ein brockenschweres Spiel bekommt und als 24. ein gutes Los zieht. Wer hätte denn in der Saison 2024 lieber gegen ManCity (22. – dann gegen Real ausgeschieden) als gegen Bergamo (9. – dann 2:5 gegen Brügge untergegangen) gespielt?

6. Mehr Spiele, die niemand braucht

Das einzige, was bis Anfang Februar wirklich wichtig ist: Nicht unterhalb von Platz 24 landen. Dafür müssen Teams, die vom längst komplett aus den Fugen geratenen Terminplan des Fußballs längst gnadenlos überspielt sind, jetzt zwei bis vier Spiele mehr spielen als früher. Die großen Teams setzen sich dabei sowieso durch. Je mehr Spiele man spielt, desto wahrscheinlicher wird schließlich, dass der größere, bessere Kader sich durchsetzt. Je weniger Spiele, desto sensationsanfälliger ist der Ausgang.

Weil die Favoriten sogar eine längere Herbstkrise schadlos überstehen können (siehe Paris oder City, die beide im Vorjahr trotz ziemlich schlechter Phasen weiterkamen).

Die TV-Stationen mag das Mehr-Mehr-Mehr freuen (sie gehen uns Fans dafür am Arsch mit der Zerlegung des Bewerbs auf drei Sender, die dann erst recht nicht genügen müssen, um alle Spiele sehen zu können). Sportlich ist es jedenfalls die gähnende Langeweile.

7. Noch mehr verschiedene Großduelle bei denen es um weniger geht – das entwertet Klassiker

Es war schon im Gruppenphasen-Champions-League-Format so, dass jedes Team ein ziemlich großes anderes Team in der Gruppenphase erwischt hat. Die zwei ersten Töpfe des Bewerbs waren schlicht so gut, dass das nicht anders ging. Im Extremfall traf man sich später noch zu zwei Spielen. Aber zumindest war damit auch nur ein großer Gegner wirklich für die Saison “verbraucht”. Und wenn einer davon gerade ein wenig gekriselt hat, konnte das immerhin eng fürs Weiterkommen werden. Die Fans haben spätestens im Viertelfinale über so manchen Kracher trotzdem nur noch gegähnt.

Im aktuellen Modus ist das noch schlimmer. Zwar trifft man jedes Team nur einmal in der Vorrunde, aber dafür “verbraucht” jedes Team gleich 2, 3 manchmal sogar 4 größere Gegner schon früh im Turnier. Spielen zwei Top-Teams alle 4 Jahre mal gegeneinander, ist es aufregend. Aber etwa zwischen Arsenal gegen PSG gab es 2024/25 drei Matches.

Wennn wie vergangene Woche Real gegen Liverpool spielt (als Finale 2018 und 2022 wäre das eine große und aktuelle Rivalität) oder Bayern gegen PSG (immerhin auch das Finale 2020), dann ist der Ausgang im November ungefähr so bedeutsam, wie er das auf einer Asien-Tour-Saisonvorbereitung wäre. Ja eh, schon ein nettes Event für die Fans – aber mit einem Sieg nicht viel erreicht, eine Niederlage ist kein Untergang. Und man sieht sich ja wohl später wieder, wenns dann wirkllich zählt.

All diese Probleme sind lösbar

All diese Probleme wären lösbar. Und man muss dafür nicht zum alten Modus zurückkehren, der auch seine Probleme hatte – teils sogar dieselben.

Auf der Suche nach der Lösung muss man nur ganz kurz zu einem anderen Sport schauen, als zum Fußball. Im Computerspiel “League of Legends” ging an diesem Wochenende gerade die jährliche Weltmeisterschaft zuende. Wer eSports nicht verfolgt weiß es vielleicht nicht, aber das ist ein riesiges, globales Event.

Auch dort endet das Turnier mit einer K.O.-Phase, garantiert allen Teams davor aber eine gewisse Mensche an Spielen, bevor sie ausscheiden müssen.

Was ist die “Swiss Stage”?

Statt einer “Gruppenphase” oder einer “Ligaphase” nennt man die Vorrunde dort die “Swiss Stage”. Um ein Teilnehmerfeld zu halbieren, gibt es eine einfache Regel: Wer drei Duelle gewinnt, kommt weiter. Wer drei Duelle verliert, scheidet aus.

Nach der ersten Runde verzweigt sich das Format. Die Sieger spielen als nächstes gegeinander, die Verlierer auch. Wer so ein “Gewinnerduell” verloren hat, spielt danach gegen ein Team, das ein “Verlierduell” gewonnen hat. Und so geht das weiter.

Die besten Teams sind nach drei Duellen weiter und stehen dann in der K.O.-Phase. Die schlechtesten Teams sind nach drei Duellen raus. Für die Teams dazwischen dauert es ein wenig länger: Die späteste Entscheidung über Weiterkommen oder Ausscheiden fällt auf nach 5 Runden zwischen Teams, die bis dahin 2 Duelle gewonnen oder verloren haben.

Während alle frühen Duelle in nur einer Partie entschieden werden, sind alle Entscheidungsduelle in mehr als einem Spiel ausgetragen (bei League of Legends heißt das: Best-of-3).

Und wie würde das in der Champions League aussehen?

Die Champions League müsste das Format natürlich mit 32 Teams (wie früher) statt 36 Teams (wie jetzt) tragen. Außerdem würde man im Fußball in einem Entscheidungsspiel ein Hin-und-Rückspiel spielen.

Das bedeutet: Es gibt drei bis fünf Runden, um auf drei gewonnene oder verlorene Duelle zu kommen und 16 Aufsteiger zu finden.

Die besten und schlechtesten Teams hätten dann nur 4 Spiele (die wären allerdings alle wichtig). Für die letzten Entscheidungen braucht es wie in der Ligaphase maximal 8 Spiele.

 

Duelle in blauen Bereichen sind Einzelspiele (mit Verlängerung). Duelle in roten und grünen Bereichen werden in Hin- und Rückspiel entschieden.

Zusätzlich würde das Playoff entfallen. Vier Aufsteiger hätten also im Extremfall bis zu 6 Spiele weniger als im aktuellen System (4 in der Vorrunde, 2 im Playoff,).

Die Champions League würde von 144 auf 84 Vorrundenspiele schrumpfen. Die K.O.-Phase von 45 auf 29. Der Hauptbewerb insgesamt also von 189 auf 113. Das klingt wild, aber gegenüber der Champions League mit Gruppenphase sind das lediglich 12 Spiele weniger. Und noch vor einem Jahr war das normal.

Es gäbe zwar Möglichkeiten, am System im Detail zu schrauben um das Turnier wieder zu verlängern (z.B.: mehr als 32 Teams antreten lassen, eine andere Zahl an nötigen Siegen und Niederlagen festlegen, die Zahl der Runden mit Hin- und Rückspiel oder Zwischenrunden zu variieren, etc.). Aber über diese Varianten ins Detail zu gehen, würde den Artikel unübersichtlich machen. (Wer radikal sein will, streicht einfach die Qualifikation und vereint die Vorrunde von CL, EL und ECL – dann spielen eben 256 Teams in der Europäischen Swiss-Stage und qualifizieren sich so für eine dreigeteilte, größere K.O.-Phase danach.)

Aber wie ich gleich erklären werde, sollte das (viele Spiele) überhaupt für niemanden das Ziel sein.

Was würde das bringen?

Eigentlich würde das Swiss System (fast) alle Probleme lösen.

#1 Die Zahl der Spiele sinkt (und das kann für alle gut sein)

Wenn du das liest, liebst du Fußballspiele wahrscheinlich – wie ich auch. Aber es gibt viel zu viele Spiele im europäischen Fußball.

Die großen Ligen haben 34 bis 38 Spieltage. Ein bis zwei Pokalbewerbe pro Land addieren bis zu 12 Spieltage. Der Champions League-Hauptbewerb hat 19 Spieltage (die Europa League und European Conference League blähen die Belastung auch für kleinere Teams ähnlich hoch). Die Klub-WM oder eine EURO kommen mit bis zu 7 Spieltagen oben drauf, eine WM sogar mit 8. Ach ja – und die Nations League, die Playoffs, das Final Four … Auch in Jahren ohne Großereignis gibt es rund 10 Spiele für europäische Nationalteams.

Das schadet der Qualität. Schlüsselspieler ihrer Top-Vereine und ihres Nationalteams kommen auf über 50 bis 60 Einsätze im Jahr. Liverpool ist zwar 2024/25 zwar im FA-Cup nach nur zwei Runden ausgeschieden und hat Kapitän Virgil Van Dijk in keinem davon eingesetzt (und in den ersten drei Runden des Ligapokals auch nicht). Der Verein musste nicht einmal zur Klub-WM. Trotzdem sammelte der niederländische Verteidiger über die gesamte Saison mitsamt Nationalteam unfassbare 61 Einsätze. (Ich habe nicht einmal eine Ahnung, ob das ein Rekord für die Saison ist – er war einfach nur der erste Spieler, der mir eingefallen ist.)

So viele Spiele, Jahr für Jahr. Kaum noch Pausen. Gerade Top-Spieler sind über dem Limit – und in entscheidenden Phasen dann oft auch nicht in Form. Genau so sehen wahnsinnig viele Spiele und große Turniere auch aus: Müde. Ergebnisgrind statt Unterhaltung.

Ich glaube, es geht nicht nur mir so. Aber auch die Fans sind zunehmend erledigt. Es ist immer Fußball – und immer JEDER Fußball. Man schaut sich dann vielleicht noch die meisten Spiele der Lieblingsmannschaft an. Aber zusätzlich für Spiele einzuschalten oder ins Stadion zu gehen, die andere Teams betreffen? Mal die Copa oder den Afrikacup verfolgen? Ein Cupfinale sehen, in dem mein Team nicht spielt? In eine andere Liga schnüffeln? Das wird zunehmend uninteressant.

Das waren jetzt viele Worte um zu sagen: Dass sich die Top-Teams mit starken Ergebnissen in der Swiss Stage ein paar Spieltage in der Champions League ersparen können, wäre zumindest für die Spieler und Trainer vielleicht sogar ein wertvollerer Preis, als ein paar Millionen mehr an Einnahmen für den Verein. Und als Fan hätte man mal wieder Zeit – für was auch immer man tut, wenn gerade nicht Fußball ist? (Anmerkung: Zu den kleineren Teams komme ich gleich noch einmal etwas weiter unten.)

#2 Kein bedeutungsloses Spiel

Für die Fernsehstationen wären weniger Spiele ein verkraftbarer Verlust. Einerseits würden vermutlich die Rechte ein bisschen günstiger werden (Ressourcen, die man gern in die fallende Qualität der Übertragungen oder nationale Ligen investieren darf).

De facto gehen aber auch vor allem langweilge Spiele verloren. In der Swiss Stage hätten nicht nur die Fans jedes Teams immer was zu schauen und zu zittern – es gibt zusätzlich eh auch immer objektive Top-Spiele.

Und sobald man nach zwei Runden in der “Entscheidungsphase“ der Swiss Stage angelangt ist, sind immer Duelle ums Weiterkommen oder gegen das Ausscheiden dabei. Diese ganzen Niemandsland-Duelle und Spiele, bei dem es bei einem oder beiden Teams um gar nichts mehr geht, wären Geschichte.

Größere Nationen freut: weniger lästige Pflichtspiele. Kleinere Nationen freut: Weniger Spiele, dafür mit K.O.-Charakter und meist mit einer echten Chance. Die direkten Duelle sind nicht nur ausgeglichener, sie machen immerhin auch Sensationen ein bisschen wahrscheinlicher.

#3 Top-Spiele in der Vorrunde zählen endlich etwas

Jedes einzelne Spiel hätte eine direkte Auswirkung auf den sportlichen Erfolg. Schon in der Gruppenphase des alten Modus war es fast immer ziemlich egal, ob das Team aus Topf 1 oder Topf 2 das direkte Duell gewinnt. Am Ende waren beide im Achtelfinale und schwerer oder leichter war die Auslosung deshalb oft auch nicht. Und in der Ligaphase wird es schon nächste Woche wieder ziemlich egal sein, dass Liverpool vor einigen Tagen Real besiegt hat oder dass die Bayern gegen PSG gewonnen haben.

Das wäre im Swiss-System anders. Du steigst einen Ast ab, wenn du verlierst – bist dem Ausscheiden näher. Und der nächste Gegner wird auch nicht einfach. Plötzlich ist ein Top-Team gefährdet aus dem Bewerb zu ballern, wenn es drei Wochen in einer Krise ist. Und auf der anderen Seite: Wenn du gewinnst, hast du in einer sonst besonders belastenden Phase der Saison plötzlich vielleicht ein paar Tage frei.

Natürlich würden sich Teams trotzdem drei Mal im Jahr treffen, aber zumindest hat dabei jedes Spiel mehr Wirkung und sportliche Bedeutung.

#4 Zwei Drittel der Saison sind nicht mehr fast wurscht

Um unter die Top 24 eines Bewerbs zu kommen, dafür muss es für Teams aus England, Deutschland, Italien, Spanien und Frankreich in acht aus der Setzliste gelosten Spielen fast immer reichen. 18 Aufsteiger-Teams in der ersten Saison kamen aus diesen fünf Ligen (nur vier ihrer Teams flogen raus). In den Nationen dahinter wird es hingegen zunehmend unwahrscheinlich. Der beste “Andere” landete am 14. Platz.

Wegen der einerseits erhöhten Anzahl an Spielen und des Playoffs als Zusatzchance ist es für reichere Teams halbwegs unmöglich schon in der Ligaphase auszuscheiden. Das macht die Vorrunde langweiliger, ausrechenbarer und bedeutungsloser. Und es gibt den Teams der großen Nationen praktisch eine Garantie, bis mindestens Februar im Bewerb zu sein.

In der Ligaphase lässt sich das Problem auch nicht sinnvoll reparieren. Das Playoff zu streichen und nur 16 Aufsteiger zu ermöglichen, würde zwar den Druck erhöhen, aber der Zufallsfaktor wäre enorm. Denn für eine sinnvolle Reihung sind es wiederum zu wenige Spiele. Sensationen sind einerseits gut, aber einem gewissen Punkt wird es zu Beliebigkeit.

Die 20 Teams von Platz 6(!) bis Platz 25(!) lagen in der Saison 2024/25 nur fünf Punkte auseinander. In einer echten Liga mit Hin- und Rückspiel (das wären hier – lol – 70 Runden) wären so knappe Abstände akzeptabel. Die große Zahl der Spiele über eine ganze Saison eliminiert die Beliebigkeit weitgehend. In einer Liga mit zwar 36 Teams aber nur 8 Runden, könnte man diesen Unterschied eher würfeln als über die Qualität zu erklären. Ein einziger umstrittener Schiri-Pfiff oder eine komplett gegen den Spielverlauf erlittene Niederlage – dazu vielleicht eine etwas schwierigere Auslosung und schon bist du weg statt Fixaufsteiger. Spielst du in der letzten Runde gegen ein Team, das bereits fix weg oder weiter ist, kann es genau umgekehrt sein.

Während wir zu großen Zufall nicht mehr zu wollen scheinen (sonst gäbe es einen echten Pokal), ist zu große Beliebigkeit auch kein Zeil.

In der Swiss Stage ist der Zufall dank Triple-Elimination klein. Aber es wird eben auch nicht erst in der 8. Runde eng. Eine Niederlage in der ersten Runde bedeutet: zu 33% bist du schon raus. Bis du weiterkommst, kannst du nicht lockerlassen und hast immer was zu gewinnen. Bis du raus bist, musst du nicht aufgeben und kannst dein Glück immer noch rumreissen. Das macht es nicht nur spannender – es verhindert auch die angesprochene Wettbewerbsverzerrung.

#5 Teams in vergleichbarer Stärke haben auch direkte Duelle

Wer früh aufsteigt, ist wirklich stark in Form. Wer früh ausscheidet, ist wirklich schlecht drauf (oder kann grundsätzlich nicht mithalten). Und alle Teams dazwischen bestimmen im direkten Vergleich mit ähnlich starken Rivalen, wer besser ist.

Das ist besser als einer Ligaphase, in der Teams gereiht werden, die nie gegeneinander spielen mussten.

Zu den kleineren Teams: Das frühe Aus muss kein Ende sein

Ob die Top 8 Europas ein paar Spiele und dadurch auch ein paar Einnahmen weniger haben, ist mir wirklich komplett egal. Im Prinzip wäre es sogar wünschenswert. Sie sind seid reich genug und werden eh immer reicher.

Die kleineren Teams brauchen aber ein Sicherheitsnetz, weil es für die UEFA ein politisches Ziel sein sollte, dass sie aufholen oder zumindest nicht weiter abgehängt werden. Durch das Schrumpfen der Vorrunde müsste man für sie tatsächlich einen Ausgleich schaffen. CL-Spiele sind ihnen eine wichtige Einnahmequelle.

In diesem Problem liegt eine Chance. Die UEFA sollte einerseits die grundsätzliche Teilnahmeprämie an der Vorrunde erhöhen und die Leistungsprämien verringern. Die Mittel werden so gleichmäßiger verteilt.

Mit der Verschränkung von Champions Leauge zu Europa League und Conference League gewinnen alle

Eine gute, ergänzende Idee wäre außerdem, dass der bessere Teil der 16 Ausgeschiedenen in der Europa League weiterspielt (z.B.: die 6 Teams, die es in die fünfte Runde geschafft haben) – und der schlechtere Teil der Ausgeschiedenen (z.B.: die 10 Teams, in Runde 4 und 5 rausflogen) sogar in der European Conference League weiter macht.

Diese beiden Bewerbe haben heute ohnehin überhaupt kein klares Leistungsprofil mehr. Gewinnen werden auch sie im heutigen Modus in 19 von 20 Fällen Teams aus den Top-Nationen – und die müssen sich dafür bis zum Viertelfinale nicht einmal strecken.

Die besten Teams aller anderen Nationen sind nämlich in den höherrangigen Bewerben Kanonenfutter für die ganz Großen. Die frühere Verschränkung der europäischen Bewerbe im Frühjahr aufzuheben war ein Fehler. Stellen wir sie wieder her.

Der österreichische Vierte ist vom englischen oder italienischen Sechsten wahrscheinlich noch weiter entfernt, als die Meister voneinander. Wenn aber im Februar die Meister aus Polen, Tschechien, Schweiz, Dänemakr oder Österreich in der Conference League landen, haben sie dort hingegen vielleicht auch eine halbwegs passable Chance auf einen Titel.

Die Frage ist: Kann der Fußball überhaupt noch einen Schritt in die andere Richtung gehen?

Wenn jemandem ein besseres Format für die Champions League einfällt, als mir hier, soll mir das recht sein. Es ist nur eine Idee, die einige echte Probleme angehen und lösen könnte. Die Ligaphase war ein Schritt in die falsche Richtung – eine Reform im Zeichen der Super-League-Verblödung. Und eine feige Reaktion war es noch dazu. Denn gerade als die Gierigen einmal auf die Schnauze gefallen sind, machte man ihnen noch ein Zugeständnis.

Aber Appeasement zu wahren und den Reichsten schrittweise immer mehr nachzugeben, kann nicht der Anspruch des besten Fußball-Bewerbs der Welt sein. Wenn nicht einmal die UEFA Champions League genug wäre, um den Fußball in eine minimal bessere Richtung zu lenken, dann hat die UEFA versagt. Und dann wird und muss dieses Sportbusiness über kurz oder lang ohnehin abbrennen.

Ich habe hier freilich überhaupt nicht von revolutionären Umstürzen am Fußball-Kontinent geredet. Für große Veränderungen müssten die Rahmenbedingungen anders werden – ein Modus allein kann nicht alles richten. Es geht nur um eine bessere Vorrunde in einem ziemlich kaputten System. Aber es wäre eine, die sich immerhin in einigen Details der Logik dieses Systems widersetzt. Die sagt, dass die Reichsten bei der nächsten Reform immer noch mehr abbekommen müssen. Und es wäre eine Vorrunde, die sich dem Irrsinn widersestzt, dass die richtige Antwort für den Fußball immer sein muss, noch mehr Spiele in das Jahr zu stopfen.

Beides sind toxische Ausprägungen des neoliberalen Zeitgeists. Die finanziellen Gräben im europäischen Fußball sind derzeit viel zu groß, um einen Bewerb herzustellen, der komplett nachvollziehbare Fragen beantwortet (“Wer ist der beste Meister?” (Meisterpokal), “Weches ist das beste K.O.-Team?” (Cup der Cupsieger), “Wer ist der Beste vom Rest?” (UEFA Pokal)). Der beste Bewerb wird aus demselben Grund auch nicht einfach dadurch hergestellt, dass er einen egalitären Zugang für alle gewährt gewährt (weil der englische und spanische Sechste halt dank nationaler Fernsehgelder objetiv besser als die meisten Meister des Kontinents sein müssen). Und wer keinen reinen K.O.-Modus oder keine echte Liga-Saison spielen lässt, muss immer eine Balance aus Sensationen und Leistungsgerechtigkeit suchen. Einen perfekten Modus gibt es dafür vermutlich nicht. Die CL mit Gruppenphase war es nicht. Die Ligaphase war eine Verschlechterung.

Statt in diesem toxischen Trend von Verschlechterung und Zugeständnissen zu bleiben, kann es, sollte es ein Signal geben: Es darf auch einmal ein bisschen weniger sein. Es geht auch mal zumindest einen Tick gerechter. Und während die Großen und Reichen uns erzählen wollen, dass ihre Interessen immer das Beste für alle sind, dass die Gemeinschaft des Fußballs sie mehr braucht, als umgekehrt – würde so eine Reform dagegen reden. Sie würde zeigen: Der Fußball ist spannender und interessanter, wenn ihr nicht immer mehr für eure Profite rauszieht. Das ist für sich keine Revolution. Aber zumindest ein inspirierende Funke.

Weniger Spiele, ein bisschen weniger Geld für die Reichsten. Beides wäre im Mehr-mehr-mehr-Wahnsinn des kapitalistischen Profifußballs dringend nötig, aber widerspricht komplett den kurzfristigen Interessen der mächtigsten Akteure.

Und vielleicht wäre es deshalb umso wichtiger.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #ChampionsLeague #UEFA

2025-11-07
(This post is being modified)
2025-11-02

October 2025 in books

If you’ve listened to any of my book related podcast appearances (and why would you have) you’ll know I have a reputation of immediately forgetting all the details about a book once I finish reading it. Towards the end of the month I thought I’d read maybe 3 books. Turns out I read 9 books this month and now I’m slightly annoyed I didn’t make it to 10.

Such is the reading life!

  • Summer’s End (Shady Hollow #5) by Juneau Black ★★★★☆ (Read on Oct 31, 2025) – This is a cozy mystery series in which all the characters are animals. This entry has a setting that reminded me a lot of Newgrange, which I have very fond memories of. The book itself is a very pleasant read featuring many animals consuming baked goods and figuring out a murder.
  • Iced in Paradise (Leilani Santiago Hawai’i Mystery, #1) by Naomi Hirahara ★★★☆☆ (Read on Oct 27, 2025) – Another cozy mystery! This one set in Hawaii. I liked this one, but I thought the use of dialect was a little over the top (however, I don’t really know anything about how people in Hawaii speak so it could be very accurate!).
  • In the Blink of An Eye (Kat and Lock, #1) by Jo Callaghan ★★★★☆ (Read on Oct 26, 2025) – Antony Johnston recommended this during a recent Incomparable reading list episode, and it was a darn good read. The technology is slightly unbelievable but the characters are good (and I’m currently reading the next book in the series, so clearly I liked it!).
  • The Golden Spoon by Jessa Maxwell ★★★☆☆ (Read on Oct 22, 2025) – Another fun one, though really only of interest to people who like the Great British Baking Show.
  • The Concrete River (Jack Liffey Book 1) by John Shannon ★★★★☆ (Read on Oct 19, 2025) – I tend to not like mysteries set in contemporary America, but sometimes one hits just right. This noir mystery set in 90’s LA is… I was going to say a lot of fun but it isn’t fun. It is a good read, and soon to be a TV show (I think).
  • Grave Empire (The Great Silence, #1) by Richard Swan ★★★★☆ (Read on Oct 17, 2025) – I didn’t realize there was a previous trilogy set a few hundred years before this book, but you don’t need to read it to enjoy this. This one of those musket fantasy epics that interweave several characters and plots.
  • The World’s Greatest Detective and Her Just Okay Assistant (Merritt & Blunt Mysteries, #1) by Liza Tully ★★★★☆ (Read on Oct 10, 2025) – Sherlock Holmes has spawned a billion series, and this is another spin on the dynamic. A good one, though!
  • Strangled Prose (Claire Malloy, #1) by Joan Hess ★★★☆☆ (Read on Oct 05, 2025) – I read this and thought, “This is a good take on a mystery written in the 80’s.” Then I realized it was a mystery written in the 80’s. I’m not sure how it ended up on my holds list, but I’m glad it did. I’m sure I’ll end up reading the next 19 books in the series.
  • Coyote (Coyote Trilogy, #1) by Allen M. Steele ★★★★☆ (Read on Oct 04, 2025) – Imagine a world where Republicans have messed everything up, but in this case these Republicans are the ones from the 90’s. This novel is depressing but oddly fun to see ships and bases named after old conservative figures (many of whom wouldn’t recognize today’s Republican Party).

#1 #5

2025-10-22

9 Signs Your Nonprofit Is Ready To Host A Successful Gala

I’ve just wrapped up the latest TechSoup Connect Canada session, "9 Signs Your Nonprofit Is Ready to Host a Successful Gala," with the incredible Mike Imholte of Black Diamond Benefits. Hosting a gala isn't just a party; it's a signal that your nonprofit is ready for growth. Mike, a professional Benefit Auctioneer and strategic consultant, helped us get clarity on the nine essential elements you must have in place to make your event a powerful success. Here are the nine strategic signs […]

digitalnonprofit.ca/2025/10/22

2025-10-12

@ShaulaEvans in hindsight i guess ive made quite a few. I think it was gradual but exponential change. Like as a little kid I spent time learning about the problem and making little inventions to try and help. But that kind of thought and effort would only happen like once a year, at most. As an adult it became this ever growing and quickening process of "what if I did X from now on" in a target rich environment. Net result has been these, in no particular order because i can't remember when i started each one:

1. Focused actively on replacing each direct fossil fuel using thing in the home. Lawn equipment, vehicles, heating and cooling, and cooking equipment were all swapped to electrification or renewables.

2. Then a big chunk of my personal time got invested into lobbying local power company to shift my electric sourcing off fossil. Lobbying is a lifestyle it takes a lot of time and planning to make it effectove, measure progress toward goal.

3. Replaced all my home cleaning supplies with low waste / renewable / reusable alternatives. Paper towels became biodegradable cloths, and paper towels that i still get (along with toilet paper), became sourced from companies that use waste paper or recycled paper to make their products. Tissues are still a battle, the household is picky about that and has rejected my product attempts.

4. Shifted how I grocery shop significantly. Joined a local farm share. Stopped putting veggies in plastic produce bags i just flop them right into my reusable bags since it's all getting washed/cooked anyway (including leafy greens). Shifted toward products that come in no packaging, paper packaging, or reusable/recyclable packaging like aluminum or glass. Industrial Compostable is a last pick, and dead last is plastic packaging. Even the plastic packaging i scrutinize between. I'll favor a simple shaped clear Number 1 over a mixed-type funky flashy set of packaging. Basically if you're packaging your product in a plastic, I am actively deflecting to your competition.

5. Shifted many personal hygiene to low waste / sustainable / reusable options. Shampoo and conditioner bars, soap bars, especially ones in no packaging or biodegradable packaging. Shaving soap bars and solid metal razors with replacable safety razors instead of plastic cartidge heads. Biodegradable dental floss. Last things im still looking for are biodegradable electric toothbrush heads and a repairable electric toothbrush. My two plastic indulgences have been toothpaste (tried the tablets but the texture makes me gag). I wanna find a non mint toothpaste thats not in a plastic tube. So my lesser of evils pick has been a kids fruit toothpaste that comes in a #1 plastic bottle. The other is my deoderant. Ive tried 3 or 4 low waste deoderants but they either irritate my skin or werent effective, or both. So still on a plastic bottle there too for now.

6. Food consumption has been a bit of a dance. For several years I was vegan. But i wasnt good at it, I found that i often still went for questionable processed choices. ("Oh cool, Oreos are vegan!"). I admire the faux-meat industry, but I had a hard time squaring that it was more environmentally sound to mono crop far away indigenous land and ship the product to me than it was to eat the eggs from the little local farm share where i could get them in a non-emitting vehicle and see how the chickens were being treated / meet the chickens regularly. So my diet became "distance and verification" based. I prioritize local food from farms i can visit or pitch in at so i can confirm how the workers are treated, how the food is produced and sourced, and how animals are or arent involved. I deprioritized meat as a focal point of a meal, so there are times where meals may have no meat at all because im no longer planning the meal based on "what sides will complement this big meat dish", instead it's "ok how am i getting protein and fiber this time around" and sometimes that involves meat and sometimes it does not. When I do have meat, I prefer meats that are lower effort to obtain or farm. And I will happily eat the heck out of invasives, plant or animal. I've become interested in both foraging and growing my own food but haven't yet accomplished big shifts there.

7. I have however been happy with changes i made to my yard. I invest time every year into that. I removed about 40 feet of impervious surface from the yard. I've chipped away at reclaiming the grass yard into garden beds of native plants. I've planted 11 kinds of native trees and shrubs (8 have survived so far) with more planned. I eliminated any chemical pest or weed prevention methods. And I have been curating native plants that I can harvest herbal tea ingredients from, which resulted in a shift away from packaged teas in favor of steeping loose leaf that i harvest myself in a reusable steeper.

8. I started getting into visible mending to extend my clothing life.

9. I actively avoid disposable cutlery/straws/cups as often as I can.

10. A weird little habit I have is any time I go to do something, a thought pops in my head of "do I want someone 2,000 years from now to know I did this? Is it worth it? Is it worth being seen 2000 years from now?" and this results in a lot less consumption from me in general. It doesn't always stop me from do8ng something wasteful or materialistic, but it adds up to a significant number of times that I buy less, waste less, or repurpose stuff.

11. I started getting into ewaste reduction. When the time came to get new devices, I started to focus on repairability. And i have started to teach myself how to self host so that i can upcycle my computer parts instead of throwing them away. Started learning Linux so I could extend the life of my older hardware.

I think that's everything. Most of it wasn't taken on until I was an adult, and 11, 8, and 5 were all in the same year and are the most recent

2017-12-12

Teletijdmachine – De Tijdlijn

Elke weekdag neemt tijdreiziger Danny Verlinden jou mee in de geschiedenis van de dag. Welk beroemd album zag het levenslicht of welke ontdekking werd er gedaan op de dag van vandaag of welke triestige gebeurtenis was voorpaginanieuws? Leer elke weekdag opnieuw iets bij op Radio Oost West of hieronder.

Elke woensdagavond tussen 17 en 19 uur (niet in juli en augustus) is er een uitgebreide kijk op de geschiedenis van die dag in De Tijdslijn met aangepaste muziek in een presentatie van Andries Verlinden.

Verjaar je deze maand?

Beluister in vier minuten wat er gebeurde in de geschiedenis van jouw verjaardag!

Klik en beluister alle podcasts van de Teletijdmachine van deze maand!

Podcasts van de Teletijdmachine

Klik op het muishandje (cookies mag je aanvaarden)

https://soundcloud.com/danny-verlinden

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#1 #31DaysOfOlympics #5 #belgie #BigCity #China #Duitsland #JozefChovanec #kelder #MarcDutroux #Steden #WorldFigure

The Agile Manifesto: Rearranging Deck Chairs While Five Dragons Burn Everything Down

The Agile Manifesto: Rearranging Deck Chairs While Five Dragons Burn Everything Down

Why the ‘Sound’ Principles Miss the Dragons That Actually Kill Software Projects

The Agile Manifesto isn’t wrong, per se—it’s addressing the wrong problems entirely. And that makes it tragically inadequate.

For over two decades, ‘progressive’ software teams have been meticulously implementing sprints, standups, and retrospectives whilst the real dragons have been systematically destroying their organisations from within. The manifesto’s principles aren’t incorrect; they’re just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic whilst it sinks around them.

The four values and twelve principles address surface symptoms of dysfunction whilst completely ignoring the deep systemic diseases that kill software projects. It’s treating a patient’s cough whilst missing the lung cancer—technically sound advice that’s spectacularly missing the point.

The Real Dragons: What Actually Destroys Software Teams

Whilst we’ve been optimising sprint ceremonies and customer feedback loops, five ancient dragons have been spectacularly burning down software development and tech business effectiveness:

Dragon #1: Human Motivation Death Spiral
Dragon #2: Dysfunctional Relationships That Poison Everything
Dragon #3: Shared Delusions and Toxic Assumptions
Dragon #4: The Management Conundrum—Questioning the Entire Edifice
Dragon #5: Opinioneering—The Ethics of Belief Violated

These aren’t process problems or communication hiccups. They’re existential threats that turn the most well-intentioned agile practices into elaborate theatre whilst real work grinds to a halt. And the manifesto? It tiptoes around these dragons like they don’t exist.

Dragon #1: The Motivation Apocalypse

‘Individuals and interactions over processes and tools’ sounds inspiring until you realise that your individuals are fundamentally unmotivated to do good work. The manifesto assumes that people care—but what happens when they don’t?

The real productivity killer isn’t bad processes; it’s developers who have mentally checked out because:

  • They’re working on problems they find meaningless
  • Their contributions are invisible or undervalued
  • They have no autonomy over how they solve problems
  • The work provides no sense of mastery or purpose
  • They’re trapped in roles that don’t match their strengths

You can have the most collaborative, customer-focused, change-responsive team in the world, but if your developers are quietly doing the minimum to avoid getting fired, your velocity will crater regardless of your methodology.

The manifesto talks about valuing individuals but offers zero framework for understanding what actually motivates people to do their best work. It’s having a sports philosophy that emphasises teamwork whilst ignoring whether the players actually want to win the game. How do you optimise ‘individuals and interactions’ when your people have checked out?

Dragon #2: Relationship Toxicity That Spreads Like Cancer

‘Customer collaboration over contract negotiation’ assumes that collaboration is even possible—but what happens when your team relationships are fundamentally dysfunctional?

The real collaboration killers that the manifesto ignores entirely:

  • Trust deficits: When team members assume bad faith in every interaction
  • Ego warfare: When technical discussions become personal attacks on competence
  • Passive aggression: When surface civility masks deep resentment and sabotage
  • Fear: When people are afraid to admit mistakes or ask questions
  • Status games: When helping others succeed feels like personal failure

You hold all the retrospectives you want, but if your team dynamics are toxic, every agile practice becomes a new battlefield. Sprint planning turns into blame assignment. Code reviews become character assassination. Customer feedback becomes ammunition for internal warfare.

The manifesto’s collaboration principles are useless when the fundamental relationships are broken. It’s having marriage counselling techniques for couples who actively hate each other—technically correct advice that misses the deeper poison. How do you collaborate when trust has been destroyed? What good are retrospectives when people are actively sabotaging each other?

Dragon #3: Shared Delusions That Doom Everything

‘Working software over comprehensive documentation’ sounds pragmatic until you realise your team is operating under completely different assumptions about what ‘working’ means, what the software does, and how success is measured. But what happens when your team shares fundamental delusions about reality?

The productivity apocalypse happens when teams share fundamental delusions:

  • Reality distortion: Believing their product is simpler/better/faster than it actually is
  • Capability myths: Assuming they can deliver impossible timelines with current resources
  • Quality blindness: Thinking ‘works on my machine’ equals production-ready
  • User fiction: Building for imaginary users with imaginary needs
  • Technical debt denial: Pretending that cutting corners won’t compound into disaster

These aren’t communication problems that better customer collaboration can solve—they’re shared cognitive failures that make all collaboration worse. When your entire team believes something that’s factually wrong, more interaction just spreads the delusion faster.

The manifesto assumes that teams accurately assess their situation and respond appropriately. But when their shared mental models are fundamentally broken? All the adaptive planning in the world won’t help if you’re adapting based on fiction.

Dragon #4: The Management Conundrum—Why the Entire Edifice Is Suspect

‘Responding to change over following a plan’ sounds flexible, but let’s ask the deeper question: Why do we have management at all?

The manifesto takes management as a given and tries to optimise around it. But what if the entire concept of management—people whose job is to direct other people’s work without doing the work themselves—is a fundamental problem?

Consider what management actually does in most software organisations:

  • Creates artificial hierarchies that slow down decision-making
  • Adds communication layers that distort information as it flows up and down
  • Optimises for command and control rather than effectiveness
  • Makes decisions based on PowerPoint and opinion rather than evidence
  • Treats humans like interchangeable resources to be allocated and reallocated

The devastating realisation is that management in software development is pure overhead that actively impedes the work. Managers who:

  • Haven’t written code in years (or ever) making technical decisions
  • Set timelines based on business commitments rather than reality
  • Reorganise teams mid-project because a consultant recommended ‘matrix management’ or some such
  • Measure productivity by story points rather than needs attended to (or met)
  • Translate clear customer needs into incomprehensible requirements documents

What value does this actually add? Why do we have people who don’t understand the work making decisions about the work? What if every management layer is just expensive interference?

The right number of managers for software teams is zero. The entire edifice of management—the org charts, the performance reviews, the resource allocation meetings—is elaborate theatre that gets in the way of people solving problems.

Productive software teams operate more like research labs or craftsman guilds: self-organising groups of experts who coordinate directly with each other and with the people who use their work. No sprint masters, no product owners, no engineering managers—just competent people working together to solve problems.

The manifesto’s principles assume management exists and try to make it less harmful. But they never question whether it has any value at all.

Dragon #5: Opinioneering—The Ethics of Belief Violated

Here’s the dragon that the manifesto not only ignores but actually enables: the epidemic of strong opinions held without sufficient evidence.

William Kingdon Clifford wrote in 1877 that

‘it is wrong always, everywhere, and for anyone, to believe anything upon insufficient evidence’
(Clifford, 1877).

In software development, we’ve created an entire culture that violates this ethical principle daily through systematic opinioneering:

Technical Opinioneering: Teams adopting microservices because they’re trendy, not because they solve actual problems. Choosing React over Vue because it ‘feels’ better. Implementing event sourcing because it sounds sophisticated. Strong architectural opinions based on blog posts rather than deep experience with the trade-offs.

Process Opinioneering: Cargo cult agile practices copied from other companies without understanding why they worked there. Daily standups that serve no purpose except ‘that’s what agile teams do.’ Retrospectives that generate the same insights every sprint because the team has strong opinions about process improvement but no evidence about what actually works.

Business Opinioneering: Product decisions based on what the CEO likes rather than what users require. Feature priorities set by whoever argues most passionately rather than data about user behaviour. Strategic technology choices based on industry buzz rather than careful analysis of alternatives.

Cultural Opinioneering: Beliefs about remote work, hiring practices, team structure, and development methodologies based on what sounds right rather than careful observation of results.

The manifesto makes this worse by promoting ‘individuals and interactions over processes and tools’ without any framework for distinguishing between evidence-based insights and opinion-based groupthink. It encourages teams to trust their collective judgement without asking whether that judgement is grounded in sufficient evidence. But what happens when the collective judgement is confidently wrong? How do you distinguish expertise from persuasive ignorance?

When opinioneering dominates, you get teams that are very confident about practices that don’t work, technologies that aren’t suitable, and processes that waste enormous amounts of time. Everyone feels like they’re making thoughtful decisions, but they’re sharing unfounded beliefs dressed up as expertise.

The Deeper Problem: Dysfunctional Shared Assumptions and Beliefs

The five dragons aren’t just symptoms—they’re manifestations of something deeper. Software development organisations operate under shared assumptions and beliefs that make effectiveness impossible, and the Agile Manifesto doesn’t even acknowledge this fundamental layer exists.

My work in Quintessence provides the missing framework for understanding why agile practices fail so consistently. The core insight is that organisational effectiveness is fundamentally a function of collective mindset:

Organisational effectiveness = f(collective mindset)

I demonstrate that every organisation operates within a “memeplex“—a set of interlocking assumptions and beliefs about work, people, and how organisations function. These beliefs reinforce each other so strongly that changing one belief causes the others to tighten their grip to preserve the whole memeplex.

This explains why agile transformations consistently fail. Teams implement new ceremonies whilst maintaining the underlying assumptions that created their problems in the first place. They adopt standups and retrospectives whilst still believing people are motivated, relationships are authentic, management adds value, and software is always the solution.

Consider the dysfunctional assumptions that pervade conventional software development:

About People: Most organisations and their management operate under “Theory X” assumptions—people are naturally lazy, require external motivation, need oversight to be productive, and will shirk responsibility without means to enforce accountability. These beliefs create the very motivation problems they claim to address.

About Relationships: Conventional thinking treats relationships as transactional. Competition drives performance. Hierarchy creates order. Control prevents chaos. Personal connections are “unprofessional.” These assumptions poison the collaboration that agile practices supposedly enable.

About Work: Software is the solution to every problem. Activity indicates value. Utilisation (of eg workers) drives productivity. Efficiency trumps effectiveness. Busyness proves contribution. These beliefs create the delusions that make teams confidently ineffective.

About Management: Complex work requires coordination. Coordination requires hierarchy. Hierarchy requires managers. Managers add value through oversight and direction. These assumptions create the parasitic layers that impede the very work they claim to optimise.

About Knowledge: Strong opinions indicate expertise. Confidence signals competence. Popular practices are best practices. Best practices are desirable. Industry trends predict future success. These beliefs create the opinioneering that replaces evidence with folklore.

Quintessence (Marshall, 2021) shows how “quintessential organisations” operate under completely different assumptions:

  • People find joy in meaningful work and naturally collaborate when conditions support it
  • Relationships based on mutual care and shared purpose are the foundation of effectiveness
  • Work is play when aligned with purpose and human flourishing
  • Management is unnecessary parasitism—people doing the work make the decisions about the work
  • Beliefs must be proportioned to evidence and grounded in serving real human needs

The Agile Manifesto can’t solve problems created by fundamental belief systems because it doesn’t even acknowledge these belief systems exist. It treats symptoms whilst leaving the disease untouched. Teams optimise ceremonies whilst operating under assumptions that guarantee continued dysfunction.

This is why the Qunitessence approach differs so radically from ‘Agile’ approaches. Instead of implementing new practices, quintessential organisations examine their collective assumptions and beliefs. Instead of optimising processes, they transform their collective mindset. Instead of rearranging deck chairs, they address the fundamental reasons the ship is sinking.

The Manifesto’s Tragic Blindness

Here’s what makes the Agile Manifesto so inadequate: it assumes the Five Dragons don’t exist. It offers principles for teams that are motivated, functional, reality-based, self-managing, and evidence-driven—but most software teams are none of these things.

The manifesto treats symptoms whilst ignoring diseases:

  • It optimises collaboration without addressing what makes collaboration impossible
  • It values individuals without confronting what demotivates them
  • It promotes adaptation without recognising what prevents teams from seeing their shared assumptions and beliefs clearly
  • It assumes management adds value rather than questioning whether management has any value at all
  • It encourages collective decision-making without any framework for leveraging evidence-based beliefs

This isn’t a failure of execution—it’s a failure of diagnosis. The manifesto identified the wrong problems and thus prescribed the wrong solutions.

Tom Gilb’s Devastating Assessment: The Manifesto Is Fundamentally Fuzzy

Software engineering pioneer Tom Gilb delivers the most damning critique of the Agile Manifesto: its principles are

‘so fuzzy that I am sure no two people, and no two manifesto signers, understand any one of them identically’

(Gilb, 2005).

This fuzziness isn’t accidental—it’s structural. The manifesto was created by ‘far too many “coders at heart” who negotiated the Manifesto’ without

‘understanding of the notion of delivering measurable and useful stakeholder value’

(Gilb, 2005).

The result is a manifesto that sounds profound but provides no actionable guidance for success in product development.

Gilb’s critique exposes the manifesto’s fundamental flaw: it optimises for developer comfort rather than stakeholder value. The principles read like a programmer’s wish list—less documentation, more flexibility, fewer constraints—rather than a framework for delivering measurable results to people who actually need the software.

This explains why teams can religiously follow agile practices whilst consistently failing to deliver against folks’ needs. The manifesto’s principles are so vague that any team can claim to be following them whilst doing whatever they want. ‘Working software over comprehensive documentation’ means anything you want it to mean. ‘Responding to change over following a plan’ provides zero guidance on how to respond or what changes matter. (Cf. Quantification)

How do you measure success when the principles themselves are unmeasurable? What happens when everyone can be ‘agile’ whilst accomplishing nothing? How do you argue against a methodology that can’t be proven wrong?

The manifesto’s fuzziness enables the very dragons it claims to solve. Opinioneering thrives when principles are too vague to be proven wrong. Management parasitism flourishes when success metrics are unquantified Shared delusions multiply when ‘working software’ has no operational definition.

Gilb’s assessment reveals why the manifesto has persisted despite its irrelevance: it’s comfortable nonsense that threatens no one and demands nothing specific. Teams can feel enlightened whilst accomplishing nothing meaningful for stakeholders.

Stakeholder Value vs. All the Needs of All the Folks That Matter™

Gilb’s critique centres on ‘delivering measurable and useful stakeholder value’—but this phrase itself illuminates a deeper problem with how we think about software development success. ‘Stakeholder value’ sounds corporate and abstract, like something you’d find in a business school textbook or an MBA course (MBA – maybe best avoided – Mintzberg)

What we’re really talking about is simpler, less corporate and more human: serving all the needs of all the Folks That Matter™.

The Folks That Matter aren’t abstract ‘stakeholders’—they’re real people trying to get real things done:

  • The nurse trying to access patient records during a medical emergency
  • The small business owner trying to process payroll before Friday
  • The student trying to submit an assignment before the deadline
  • The elderly person trying to video call their grandchildren
  • The developer trying to understand why the build is broken again

When software fails these people, it doesn’t matter how perfectly agile your process was. When the nurse can’t access records, your retrospectives are irrelevant. When the payroll system crashes, your customer collaboration techniques are meaningless. When the build and smoke takes 30+ minutes, your adaptive planning is useless.

The Agile Manifesto’s developer-centric worldview treats these people as distant abstractions—’users’ and ‘customers’ and ‘stakeholders.’ But they’re not abstractions. They’re the Folks That Matter™, and their needs are the only reason software development exists.

The manifesto’s principles consistently prioritise developer preferences over the requirements of the Folks That Matter™. ‘Working software over comprehensive documentation’ sounds reasonable until the Folks That Matter™ require understanding of how to use the software. ‘Individuals and interactions over processes and tools’ sounds collaborative until the Folks That Matter™ require consistent, reliable results from those interactions.

This isn’t about being anti-developer—it’s about recognising that serving the Folks That Matter™ is the entire point. The manifesto has it backwards: instead of asking ‘How do we make development more comfortable for developers?’ we might ask ‘How do we reliably serve all the requirements of all the Folks That Matter™?’ That question changes everything. It makes motivation obvious—you’re solving real problems for real people. It makes relationship health essential—toxic teams can’t serve others effectively. It makes reality contact mandatory—delusions about quality hurt real people. It makes evidence-based decisions critical—opinions don’t serve the Folks That Matter™; results do.

Most importantly, it makes management’s value proposition clear: Do you help us serve the Folks That Matter™ better, or do you get in the way? If the answer is ‘get in the way,’ then management becomes obviously a dysfunction.

What Actually Addresses the Dragons

If we want to improve software development effectiveness, we address the real dragons:

Address Motivation: Create work that people actually care about. Give developers autonomy, mastery, and purpose. Match people to problems they find meaningful. Make contributions visible and valued.

Heal Toxic Relationships: Build psychological safety where people can be vulnerable about mistakes. Address ego and status games directly. Create systems where helping others succeed feels like personal victory.

Resolve Shared Delusions: Implement feedback loops that invite contact with reality. Measure what actually matters. Create cultures where surfacing uncomfortable truths is rewarded rather than punished.

Transform Management Entirely: Experiment with self-organising teams. Distribute decision-making authority to where expertise actually lives. Eliminate layers between problems and problem-solvers. Measure needs met, not management theatre.

Counter Evidence-Free Beliefs: Institute a culture where strong opinions require strong evidence. Enable and encourage teams to articulate the assumptions behind their practices. Reward changing your mind based on new data. Excise confident ignorance.

These aren’t process improvements or methodology tweaks—they’re organisational transformation efforts that require fundamentally different approaches than the manifesto suggests.

Beyond Agile: Addressing the Real Problems

The future of software development effectiveness isn’t in better sprint planning or more customer feedback. It’s in organisational structures that:

  • Align individual motivation with real needs
  • Create relationships based on trust
  • Enable contact with reality at every level
  • Eliminate management as dysfunctional
  • Ground all beliefs in sufficient evidence

These are the 10x improvements hiding in plain sight—not in our next retrospective, but in our next conversation about why people don’t care about their work. Not in our customer collaboration techniques, but in questioning whether we have managers at all. Not in our planning processes, but in demanding evidence for every strong opinion.

Conclusion: The Problems We Were Addressing All Along

The Agile Manifesto succeeded in solving the surface developer bugbears of 2001: heavyweight processes and excessive documentation. But it completely missed the deeper organisational and human issues that determine whether software development succeeds or fails.

The manifesto’s principles aren’t wrong—they’re just irrelevant to the real challenges. Whilst we’ve been perfecting our agile practices, the dragons of motivation, relationships, shared delusions, management being dysfunctional, and opinioneering have been systematically destroying software development from within.

Is it time to stop optimising team ceremonies and start addressing the real problems? Creating organisations where people are motivated to do great work, relationships enable rather than sabotage collaboration, shared assumptions are grounded in reality, traditional management no longer exists, and beliefs are proportioned to evidence.

But ask yourself: Does your organisation address any of these fundamental issues? Are you optimising ceremonies whilst your dragons run wild? What would happen if you stopped rearranging deck chairs and started questioning why people don’t care about their work?

Because no amount of process optimisation will save a team where people don’t care, can’t trust each other, believe comfortable lies, are managed by people who add negative value, and make decisions based on opinions rather than evidence.

The dragons are real, and they’re winning. Are we finally ready to address them?

Further Reading

Beck, K., Beedle, M., van Bennekum, A., Cockburn, A., Cunningham, W., Fowler, M., … & Thomas, D. (2001). Manifesto for Agile Software Development. Retrieved from https://agilemanifesto.org/

Clifford, W. K. (1877). The ethics of belief. Contemporary Review, 29, 289-309.

Gilb, T. (2005). Competitive Engineering: A Handbook for Systems Engineering, Requirements Engineering, and Software Engineering Using Planguage. Butterworth-Heinemann.

Gilb, T. (2017). How well does the Agile Manifesto align with principles that lead to success in product development? Retrieved from https://www.gilb.com/blog/how-well-does-the-agile-manifesto-align-with-principles-that-lead-to-success-in-product-development

Marshall, R.W. (2021). *Quintessence: An Acme for Software Development Organisations. *[online] leanpub.com. Falling Blossoms (LeanPub). Available at: https://leanpub.com/quintessence/ [Accessed 15 Jun 2022].

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5

2025-09-11

From diagnosis to duty: health workers confront their own role in inequity

A thirteen-year-old girl in Nigeria, bitten by a snake, arrived at a hospital with her frantic family. The hospital demanded payment before administering the antivenom. The family could not afford it. The girl died.

This was one of the stark stories shared by health professionals on September 10, 2025, during “Exploration Day,” the third day of The Geneva Learning Foundation’s inaugural peer learning exercise on health equity. The previous day had been about diagnosing the external systems that create such tragedies. But today, the focus shifted.

“Yesterday, we looked at the problem,” said TGLF facilitator Dr María Fernanda Monzón. “Today, we look in the mirror. We move from analyzing the situation to analyzing ourselves, our own role, our own power, and our own assumptions”.

The practitioner’s role

The day’s intensive, small-group workshops challenged participants to move beyond naming a problem to questioning their own connection to it. Groups brought their findings back to the plenary, where the work of exploration continued.

Oyelaja Olayide, a medical laboratory scientist from Nigeria, presented her group’s analysis of a child’s death following a lab misdiagnosis. The group’s root cause analysis pointed to a systemic issue: the lack of a quality management system in the laboratory. But then the facilitator turned the question back to her. “What was your role in this?”.

The question hung in the air, shifting the focus from an abstract system to individual responsibility. This pivot is central to the learning process, and the cohort’s diversity is a core element of its design. The majority of participants are frontline health workers—nurses, midwives, doctors, and community health promoters. They work side-by-side as peers with national-level staff and international partners, with government employees making up over 40% of the group. This mix intentionally breaks down traditional hierarchies, creating a space where a policy-maker can learn directly from the lived experience of a clinician in a remote village.

Learn more about the Certificate peer learning programme for equity in research and practice https://www.learning.foundation/bias

After a moment of reflection, Olayide acknowledged her role as a professional with the expertise to see the gap. “My role is to be an advocate,” she concluded, recognizing her duty to push for the implementation of quality control systems that could prevent future tragedies.

From reflection to a plan for action

This deep self-reflection is the foundation for the next stage of the process: creating a viable action plan. For the remainder of the day, participants worked on the third part of their course project, which is due by the end of the week.

The programme’s methodology insists that a good plan is not made for a community, but with a community. Participants were guided to develop action steps that involve listening to the people most affected and ensuring they help lead the change. This requires practitioners to think honestly about their position and power and how they can share it to empower others.

The day’s exploration pushed participants beyond easy answers. It asked them to confront their own biases, acknowledge their power, and accept their professional duty not just to treat patients, but to help fix the broken systems that make them sick. By turning the analytical lens inward, they began to forge the tools they need to build a more equitable future.

About the Certificate peer learning programme for equity in research and practice

The Geneva Learning Foundation is an organization that helps health workers from around the world learn together as equals. It offers the Certificate peer learning programme for equity in research and practice, where health professionals work with each other to make health care more fair for everyone, both in how care is given and in how health is studied. The first course in this program is called EQUITY-001 Equity matters, which introduces a method called HEART. This method helps you turn your experience into a real plan for change. HEART stands for Human Equity, Action, Reflection, and Transformation. This means you will learn to see unfairness in health (Human Equity), create a practical plan to do something about it (Action), think carefully about the problem to find its root cause (Reflection), and make a lasting, positive change for your community (Transformation).

Image: The Geneva Learning Foundation Collection © 2025

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #CertificatePeerLearningProgrammeForEquityInResearchAndPractice #experientialLearning #healthEquity #HEART #inequity #peerLearning #TheGenevaLearningFoundation

Certificate peer learning programme for equity in research and practice
2025-09-10

The practitioner as catalyst: How a global learning community is turning frontline experience into action on health inequity

“In this phase of my life, I want to work directly with the communities to see what I can do,” said Dr. Sambo Godwin Ishaku, a public health leader from Nigeria with over two decades of experience. His words opened the second day of The Geneva Learning Foundation’s first-ever peer learning exercise on health equity. They also spoke to the very origin of the event itself.

The Geneva Learning Foundation’s Certificate peer learning programme for equity in research and practice was created because thousands of health workers like Dr. Ishaku joined a global dialogue about equity and demanded a new kind of learning—one that moved beyond theory to provide practical tools for action.

This inaugural session on 9 September 2025, called “Discovery Day,” was a direct answer to that call. It was not a lecture, but a three-hour, high-intensity workshop where the participants’ own experiences of inequity became the curriculum.

The goal for the day was one step in a carefully designed 16-day process: to help practitioners see a familiar problem in a new way, setting the stage for them to build a viable action plan they can use in their communities.

The anatomy of unfairness

The session began with practitioners sharing true stories of systemic failure. These accounts gave a human pulse to the clinical definition of health inequity: the avoidable and unjust conditions that make it harder for some people to be healthy.

To demonstrate how to move from story to analysis, the entire cohort engaged in a collective diagnosis. They focused on a first case presented by Dr. Elizabeth Oduwole, a retired physician, about a 65-year-old man unable to afford his diabetes medication on a meager pension. Together, in a live plenary, they used a simple analytical tool to excavate the root causes of this single injustice.

The tool, known as the “Five Whys,” is less about power and more about simplicity. Its strength lies in its accessibility, providing a common language for a cohort of remarkable diversity. In this programme, community health workers, doctors, nurses, midwives, and others who work for health on the front lines of service delivery make up the majority of participants. They work side-by-side as peers with national-level staff and international partners. Government staff comprise over 40% of the group.

The group’s collective intelligence peeled back the layers of Dr. Oduwole’s story. The man’s inability to afford medicine was not just about poverty (Why #1) , but about a lack of government policy for the elderly (Why #2). This, in turn, was linked to a lack of advocacy (Why #3) , which stemmed from biased social norms that devalue the lives of older adults (Why #4). The root cause they uncovered was a deep-seated cultural belief, passed down through generations, that this was simply the natural order of things (Why #5). In minutes, the problem had transformed from a financial issue into a profound cultural challenge.

A crucible for discovery

With this shared experience, the practitioners were plunged into a rapid series of timed, small-group workshops. In these intense breakout sessions, they applied the same methodology to situations each group identified.

The stories that emerged were stark. One group analyzed the experience of a participant from Nigeria whose father died after being denied oxygen at a hospital because the only available tank was being reserved for a doctor’s mother. Their analysis traced this act back to a root cause of systemic decay and a breakdown in the ethics of the health profession. Another group tackled the insidious spread of health misinformation preventing rural girls in a conflict-afflicted area from receiving the HPV vaccine, identifying the root cause as an inadequate national health communication strategy.

A learning community was born in these workshops. They became a crucible where practitioners, often isolated in their daily work, connect with peers who understand their struggles. By unpacking a real-world problem together, they practice the skills needed for their final course project: a practical action plan due at the end of the week, which they will then have peer-reviewed and revised.

The process is designed to generate unexpected insights. Day 2, “Discovery,” is followed by Day 3, “Exploration,” both dedicated to this intensive peer analysis. By the end of the journey, each participant will have an action plan to tackle a local challenge, one that is often radically different from what they might have first envisioned, because it targets a newly discovered root cause.

The session ended, as it began, with the voices of health workers. The chat filled with a sense of energy and purpose. “We are all eager to learn, to know more, and to make an equitable Africa,” wrote Vivian Abara, a pre-hospital emergency services responder . “We’re really, really ready to go the whole nine yards and do everything, help ourselves, hold each other’s hand and move.”

About The Geneva Learning Foundation

The Geneva Learning Foundation is an organization that helps health workers from around the world learn together as equals. It offers the Certificate peer learning programme for equity in research and practice, where health professionals work with each other to make health care more fair for everyone, both in how care is given and in how health is studied. The first course in this programme is called EQUITY-001 Equity matters, which introduces a method called HEART. This method helps you turn your experience into a real plan for change. HEART stands for Human Equity, Action, Reflection, and Transformation. This means you will learn to see inequity in health (Human Equity), create a practical plan to do something about it (Action), think carefully about the problem to find its root cause (Reflection), and make a lasting, positive change for your community (Transformation).

Image: The Geneva Learning Foundation Collection © 2025

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #CertificatePeerLearningProgrammeForEquityInResearchAndPractice #experientialLearning #healthEquity #HEART #inequity #peerLearning #TheGenevaLearningFoundation

Certificate peer learning programme for equity in research and practice
Sauropod Vertebra Picture of the Weeksvpow.com@svpow.com
2025-07-17

This Saturday is Aquilops Day!

This Saturday, July 19, the Sam Noble Oklahoma Museum of Natural History is hosting Aquilops Day.

Before Jurassic World Rebirth was released, I was interviewed by the folks at the SNOMNH about Aquilops. Andy Farke and I got quoted a few places (here, here, and here). I was really happy to see Scott Madsen get some attention (here) — if he hadn’t found and prepped the fossil, Aquilops wouldn’t be a thing, and we’d know a lot less about the earliest ceratopsians in North America.

It was nice to see that one quote of mine get around, but the rest of the interview was just sitting in email, so I got permission from the SNOMNH folks to post it here.

When the specimen was first discovered in the field what did the team think it was initially? Were they looking for anything specific in the area?

I wasn’t on the expedition in the summer of 1997 when Scott Madsen discovered the Aquilops type specimen — everything I know about this I learned from Scott and from Dr. Cifelli later. I did go out to the Cloverly Formation with the OMNH crew in the summer of 1998. To answer those questions in reverse order: even in 1998 we were looking for anything and everything. I did a lot of prospecting that summer with Scott and the rest of the crew, just walking outcrops for hours in hopes of finding either fossil skeletons or a promising microsite, someplace that preserved a lot of tiny bones and especially teeth that we could retrieve by screenwashing the sediment. Dr. Cifelli had been very successful getting tiny teeth of early mammals, lizards, snakes, and more from microsites in the Cedar Mountain Formation in Utah and, to a lesser extent, from the Antlers Formation in southeast Oklahoma, and we were hoping to replicate that success in the Cloverly. But we also were not going to turn down larger fossils like skulls and skeletons.

According to Scott’s account of the discovery (link), everyone initially assumed it was a Zephyrosaurus, a small plant-eating dinosaur distantly related to duckbills. It was only during the process of preparing the skull out of the surrounding rock that Scott found the beak and realized that it was an early horned dinosaur — the earliest anywhere in the world outside of Asia.

Table centerpiece at my birthday party last month.

It’s more rare or unusual to find a dinosaur’s skull relatively intact isn’t it? Do we know or can we guess what circumstances caused this specimen’s skull to be preserved without the rest of its body?

It does often seem like feast or famine with dinosaur skulls. There are numerous dinosaurs for which we have most of the skeleton but no skull, and some others for which we have a skull but nothing else. For relatively large-headed animals like Aquilops, the skull and the body are basically two big masses connected by a weaker linkage — the neck. It’s common for the head to become separated from the body after death, as the carcass is moved around by scavengers or simply by flowing water. The same thing happens to human bodies in forensic situations.

My better half, Jenny Adams, with a plush Aquilops.

What adaptations did Aquilops and other early ceratopsians have that made it so successful? What environmental pressures caused such a small, unassuming dinosaur to eventually evolve into some of the largest land animals that ever lived?

Ceratopsians had nifty teeth that could efficiently cut up plants, like walking around with paired sets of garden shears in their mouths. And to power those shears, they had enlarged attachments for jaw muscles at the backs of their skulls, which were the first beginnings of the frills that things like Triceratops and Pentaceratops would take to such flamboyant lengths later on. But even the little cat- and pig-sized ceratopsians were pretty successful, based on the high diversity of early ceratopsians in China and Mongolia — the ancestors and cousins of Aquilops.

The combination of big jaw muscles, shearing teeth, sharp beak, and pointy skull bits worked well across a wide range of body sizes, from little tiny things like Aquilops to the later rhino- and elephant-sized horned dinosaurs. I think it’s particularly interesting that even in the Late Cretaceous, generally Aquilops-like small ceratopsians such as Leptoceratops were still thriving alongside giants like Triceratops. So it’s not the case that big ceratopsians replaced small ceratopsians, rather that the range of successful body plans expanded to include big multi-horned four-leggers. But the little ones were still doing fine, more than 40 million years after Aquilops existed.

My Aquilops t-shirt was a birthday present from Andy Farke. I didn’t even know the other one existed until Jenny got it delivered.

How accurate do you think Aquilops’ representation will be on the big screen? What would be the biggest challenge in realistically portraying Aquilops in film — locomotion, coloration or something else?

We have a lot of advantages when it comes to reconstructing the little early ceratopsians. From Asia we have multiple complete skeletons of close relatives of Aquilops, like Psittacosaurus, and some of those have fossilized impressions of the skin, including scales, color patterns, even protofeathers or “dinofuzz”. So we can reconstruct those animals with a lot more certainty than we can most of larger and more famous dinosaurs like Spinosaurus or Dilophosaurus. There isn’t a single Dilophosaurus in the world in which the tippy-top of the skull is intact, so we still don’t know the full shape and extent of the head crest (more on that here).

From the footage I’ve seen in the trailers, I think the moviemakers did a pretty darned good job with Aquilops. The body proportions look good, the colors and movements are plausible, nothing set off any red flags for me. I do wonder about disposition. A lot of small plant-eaters today are pretty skittish, and they can fight aggressively when cornered — think about the attitude of a bantam rooster, or an angry goose. My guess is that a live Aquilops would be so good at hiding that humans moving through its environment would never even see it. But for the sake of getting to see “my” dinosaur on the big screen, I’m glad the moviemakers went another way.

If this is wrong, I don’t want to be right.

One more question for fun… if you were consulted about creating this dinosaur’s on-screen persona, what kind of personality do you think it would or should have had? Nervous? Intelligent? Are there any modern animals that might have a similar personality?

When Dr. Farke, who was the lead author on the Aquilops project, and I were coordinating with Brian Engh, who did all of the art for the paper and the press release, we wanted to show a person holding an Aquilops to give a sense of scale. One of the things we talked about is that living animals with beaks or sharp teeth have a tendency to bite when they feel threatened. The core ceratopsian superpower was having very powerful jaw muscles pushing scissor-like teeth and a wickedly sharp beak. One of Brian’s preliminary sketches showed an Aquilops jumping out of a person’s arms and nipping their fingers on the way. As much as I love the idea of an adorable, friendly “cat-ceratops”, I think a real-life Aquilops would have no problem kicking, scratching, and especially biting if it got cornered by a human. Imagine a raccoon with the head of a snapping turtle — would you want that in your backpack?

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

One thing occurred to me after the interview, and after I saw the movie: the filmmakers may have gotten Dolores’s personality more correct than I thought. In the movie, the island had been uninhabited by people for 17years, and presumably Dolores is younger than that. She’d have no reason to fear people, and given the wiiiide variation in animal personalities, it wouldn’t surprise me if some Aquilops were more inquisitive than skittish. I still don’t think I’d want a cat-sized biting machine in my backpack; as Xavier says in the movie, “That may or may not be a terrible idea.”

So anyway, if you’re in or near central Oklahoma this weekend, you could do a lot worse than swinging by the Sam Noble Museum to enjoy Aquilops Day. I myself am planning on giving a short virtual presentation there — watch this space for more. EDIT: my talk, “Bringing Aquilops to Life”, will run from 1:00-1:15 PM, Central Daylight Time.

And since I’ve linked to more than one YouTube video already in this post, go watch Gabriel Santos’s awesome short on Aquilops — it’s good for you.

 

doi:10.59350/svpow.23847

#5

Steve Sawczynsteve@steves.life
2025-07-01

Drink with the Devil (Sean Dillon #5): goodreads.com

2025-05-22

DoRaleigh Weekly News Flash: What’s New Around the Triangle

Welcome to this week’s edition of the DoRaleigh Weekly News Flash — your go-to roundup of Raleigh news, events, development, and what’s happening across the Triangle.

In Development: North Hills Expansion Underway

Kane Realty has officially broken ground on The Strand, a 20-story mixed-use tower rising in North Hills, just steps from the Advance Auto Parts Tower. The project will include 362 residential units, 9,000 square feet of street-level retail, a speakeasy exclusive to penthouse residents, and a clubroom on the 18th floor. Move-ins are expected by summer 2027.

Farewell, Ruby Deluxe

After a vibrant 10-year run in downtown Raleigh, Ruby Deluxe has closed its doors for good. The queer-friendly nightclub will still host a final Pride Month edition of its beloved amateur drag show in June. (via Raleigh Magazine)

Weather Alert: Hurricane Season Starts Soon

Heads up: Hurricane season begins June 1. We’ve got a full prep guide to help you get storm-ready. The City of Raleigh is also offering tips and resources to help residents stay safe if severe weather hits.

Plus, Raleigh is handing out NOAA weather radios at select events:

May 17 at Southeast Raleigh YMCA June 28 at Green Road Park

Cannabis Confusion: Dispensaries Surge

Dispensaries are popping up across Raleigh — but marijuana remains illegal in NC. Thanks to a loophole in the 2018 Farm Bill, hemp-derived THC products are legal (and in high demand). With bipartisan regulation talks heating up, change may be on the way. (via Raleigh Magazine)

State Rankings: NC’s Stock is Rising

North Carolina has climbed to #5 for growth and #7 for best economy in the U.S., according to U.S. News & World Report. Overall, the state jumped six spots to land at #13, reflecting major gains in business climate, jobs, and quality of life.

Taking Off: New Flights from RDU

Breeze Airways is adding two more nonstop flights out of RDU:

Key West, FL – Starts Oct. 3 (Mon & Fri) Manchester, NH – Starts Nov. 6 (Thurs & Sun)

This brings Breeze’s total to 28 destinations served from Raleigh.

Retail Reimagined: Dick’s House of Sport Coming to Crabtree

The former Sears at Crabtree Valley Mall will soon become Dick’s House of Sport, an immersive store concept featuring climbing walls, batting cages, and interactive experiences. No opening date yet — but it’s part of a national rollout. (via Triangle Business Journal)

Community Spotlight: Wake County’s Rising Homelessness

Wake County’s latest count shows 1,258 people experiencing homelessness, a 27% increase from last year. The spike is partly due to improved tracking and outreach tools. While the number is concerning, officials say it provides more accurate data to support housing efforts.

Getting Around Durham: Meet the Bull Ride

Downtown Durham, Inc. has launched The Bull Ride, a free six-seat electric shuttle operating Thursdays through Saturdays. Riders (age 8+) can wave it down or call 919-682-BULL for service inside the Business Improvement District. (via INDY Week)

Tech Tidbit: AI Shopping Agents Are Here

Visa and Mastercard just dropped an AI agent that shops on your behalf. Forgetting the toilet paper? Covered. But can it appreciate a sunny stroll through Raleigh City Farm? That’s still up to you. (via TechCrunch)

Civic Moves: Toll on Capital Boulevard?

Raleigh City Council has endorsed a potential toll on Capital Boulevard (from I-540 to Wake Forest) to help fast-track its conversion into a six-lane expressway, a project that’s been delayed for over a decade. (via The News & Observer)

Coming Soon: Jaggers on Glenwood

Jaggers, a casual eatery from the folks behind Texas Roadhouse, is heading to 6711 Glenwood Ave., replacing Mami Nora’s. Expect $10-and-under burgers and chicken. The original building will be demolished and replaced — stay tuned for an opening date. (via Triangle Business Journal)

Weekend Plans & Celebrations

State of Beer Turns 10 Stop by Hillsborough Street this Sunday, May 18 (12–4 p.m.) for special brews, retro sandwiches, flash tattoos, and a photo booth to celebrate their 10-year anniversary. Lucky Tree’s New Location The beloved local coffee shop opens its Moore Square branch this Saturday, May 17, with free samples, live music, and collaborative art. Home Run Derby X at the DBAP August 9 brings MLB legends and local college stars to Durham Bulls Athletic Park. Don’t miss this high-energy event — join the waitlist now for ticket alerts.

Foodie Pick: Herons Makes National Brunch List

Cary’s Herons at The Umstead has been named one of the best brunch spots in the nation by OpenTable. From spring hot pot to crab cake Benedict, this Forbes Five-Star spot is elevating brunch to an art form. (via The News & Observer)

That’s a wrap for this week’s DoRaleigh News Flash.

Stay tuned and follow us for more updates, events, and headlines shaping life in the Triangle.

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2025-05-05

Why no one is asking questions about Spain’s mysterious missing nukes

Large scale blackouts happen all the time, but when they happen on a grid with a decent volume of wind and solar, a disinformation machines spins up within minutes to lay the blame solely, loudly and repeatedly on renewable energy. See: South Australia, 2016. UK, 2019. California, 2020. Texas, 2021. It’s a thing.

It was no different after a major blackout hit Spain last week. A narrative pushed by a few business columnists, nuclear power advocates, centre-right ecomodernists, very-right fossil fuel advocates and climate delay practitioners contributed to a widespread assumption that the blackout occurred thanks solely to Spain’s investments in wind and solar.

There has been no official detail on the sequence of events that led to the blackout, besides a few vague details on disconnected generation. That hasn’t sapped the vibrating excitement the people above have shown in aggressively pre-blaming the blackout on renewables. The debate centres around the inherent characteristics of different types of generation technologies: traditional generators use large spinning rotors that have, in the past, helped secure systems through the inertia of that spinning mass. Newer technologies like wind and solar operate on a different paradigm, and deeper structural changes are needed in systems with high volumes of both to ensure grid reliability. There’s a thick layer of politics and identity on top of that, along with direct financial interests and political corruption going in many different directions.

This post is not about spinning rotors, nor is it about what ’caused’ the Iberian blackout. Until we know more, I want to interrogate a narrative that’s sprung up in the wake of the incident: that nuclear power is the cure.

Spain is a global leader in the deployment of both solar and wind power. It’s #6 on the global country ranking for wind/solar proportion (43%), for 2024. But Spain is also one of 30 countries in the world with substantial nuclear power (20th on that list). It has a 20% share of nuclear in 2024: higher than the US, UK, Russia, Canada or China.

The widespread claim that Spain could’ve prevented the blackout with nuclear power seems to weirdly ignore the fact that Spain already has nuclear power – more than most other countries in the world. So….what happened?

The confused narrative

The government plans (very controversially) to phase nuclear out by 2035 – a decision that seems to have been wavering in the weeks before the blackout and that has also provoked the ire of communities that rely on those plants for jobs and local economic benefits.

That future plan somehow transmogrified into the broad belief nuclear had already phased out. You can find thousands of examples of this, but here’s a particularly badly phrased one:

More absurdly, Bloomberg’s columnist Merryn Somerset Webb called for “speed building” nuclear power in response to the crisis.

“Perhaps if we’d embraced nuclear properly 30 years ago, we wouldn’t need to worry about emissions— or for that matter grid security. Which would be nice. Relaxing even” (Merryn ends the piece with a list of investment suggestions for uranium stocks).

Got some good news for ya, Merryn. Spain did in fact embrace nuclear properly thirty years ago, and that capacity has remained steady ever since, according to the latest update from the World Nuclear Association:

Spain has plenty of nuclear power (in addition to hydro, gas and a small amount of coal, too). Nuclear power generation has barely budged over the past two decades, in terms of how much it generates as a proportion of the country’s total. Whatever Spain’s planning to do in the future, at the time of incident on April 28th, it had as many nuclear plants as it did when I was five years old, and in recent years, those plants have generated at a steady pace.

So what happened in April, 2025?

The shutdown

At the time of incident, Spanish nuclear power was generating 3,384 megawatts of a potential 7,123 megawatts. As a percentage of total possible nuclear output (‘capacity factor’), it was 47.5% (which isn’t all that far from offshore wind’s average capacity factor of about 40%). That is unusual for nuclear power, which almost always operates at a far higher capacity factor.

That is strange. First, I checked some recent data – you can see that the week preceding the blackout was one that saw high (but not unusually high) wind/solar output, along with weirdly low nuclear output:

To give you an idea of how weird nuclear power output was, here’s the country’s daily nuclear generation from the start of 2023 to April 27th, the day before the blackout. You can see the dip down low on the far right of the image:

Or, to demonstrate it another way – you can compare April’s nuclear power generation between 2025 and 2024:

Maybe this happens regularly outside of April, and we’re looking too narrowly? No – it doesn’t. This reduction in nuclear power is highly unusual for Spain. Even if you only look before the blackout, April 2025 was inarguably destined1 for the lowest nuclear power generation since at least 2015, according to Ember’s data:

This is significant, right? Nuclear power was abnormally low in the weeks preceding and on the day of the blackout. So, I wanted to find out why.

The weird justifications for Spain’s nuclear shutdown

The most direct reference I can find is this, from a Reuters article, referencing the two units of the Almaraz nuclear power station (only 2 gigawatts of the total missing 3.7 at the time of the blackout):

“[A week after a debate on the future on nuclear in early April], Almaraz temporarily shut down the two units citing abundant wind energy supply as making operations uneconomic. One unit was still offline on Monday [the 28th, the day of the blackout]”

Another sources cites this reason:

“….the economic unviability caused by the high taxation of nuclear plants, the low electrical demand in recent days, and the high generation of renewables” 

It is absolutely zero surprise here that the shutdown of nuclear power is being blamed on renewable energy. Nuclear advocates have a pathological decades-long history of blaming every single one of their woes on the dirty greenies, and this seems no different. Bloomberg recently ran this line, but it was vigorously denied by France.

Almaraz 1 and 2 comprise two of Spain’s seven gigawatts of nuclear: both the oldest plants, connected to the grid in 1981 and 1983 respectively. That means they are both first on the chopping block for Spain’s nuclear phase-out: “The planned closure of two nuclear reactors at southwestern Spain’s Almaraz plant, starting in 2027, will increase the risks of blackouts, European power lobby ENTSO-E said in April”.

We can do a simple sense check on both of those claims: first, that wind power output was freakishly high in Spain, and also whether the price of power in April has been abnormally low. Nuclear power has never shut down to this depth in Spain – so these circumstances must be similarly abnormal, to justify the shutdowns, right?

Well – not really. April was not a particularly high month for wind power output in Spain. In fact, the days preceding and the day of the blackout were kinda low for wind power:

This is…..pretty significant. For at least two of the missing gigawatts of capacity, the rationalisation offered, blaming high wind output, seems to be questionable.

Maybe they meant wind and solar together? It is, unsurprisingly, the same story: wind and solar’s combined contribution in April 2025 was high but absolutely within expectations and recent history:

What about the claim of the ‘economics’ of running nuclear in a high VRE grid? It is true that, generally, more wind and solar depresses wholesale power prices. It often results in smaller profits for every power generator (including wind and solar, in a self-destructive way).

While April’s wholesale electricity price was low relative to recent months, the post-energy-crisis earning per megawatt hour have been massive, and 2025’s April prices were on average higher than 2024, 2020 and 2016. Low wholesale prices have happened before in Spain and don’t seemed to have triggered the sudden obliteration of more than half the country’s nuclear capacity.

There could be an element of truth to this, given the prominence of negative prices in April 2025 – but this was a Europe-wide phenomenon, and I haven’t seen reports of nuclear plants in other European countries responding by simply shutting down entirely and de-rating output to a fraction of capacity. It is also worth noting that wholesale prices were driven negative in Spain partly due to hydro power plants generating in the middle of the day rather than just wind and solar output.2

Spanish wholesale power prices were unusually high in the months leading up to nuclear’s shutdown in Spain. They were relatively low in the weeks prior, but not abnormally so. What was different about mid-April 2025, that justified the unprecedented, partly-intentional, partly-mysterious shutdown of half of Spain’s nuclear fleet?

Make this make sense

Looking deep into this data flips the script. The story told in media is that Spain was suffering from ‘too much solar’. Who has been asking why half of Spain’s nuclear fleet was taken offline at the time of the grid instability?

We can say with confidence that on April 28th, Spain was not seeing an abnormal volume of wind or solar generation relative to the past few years. When the country’s nuclear plants were shut down, wholesale prices were low, but again not abnormally or unusually so (and not relative to other similarly nuclear-enabled countries).

The only truly unusual profile that emerges is nuclear power seemingly being downrated to its lowest level of generation for at least ten years (if not much longer), in the weeks preceding the blackout. The only verifiable information for some of this downrating relates to a politically red-hot nuclear facility currently in the midst of an intense debate about its future, which seems to have intentionally shutdown with at least questionable justifications around opaque economics.

The muddled story of nuclear power as a saviour for grids, which we should “speed build” immediately, is questionable. If we accept that as true, the implications are massive: even when nuclear power is installed and present, it can’t be relied upon to supply energy or stability unless the cost of power is above a certain level – erasing all of the benefits of capturing the free fuel of sun and wind. Nuclear shutting down if power is cheap means that as electricity gets cheaper for consumers, nuclear becomes significantly more unreliable.

If we accept the rationalisations offered by nuclear power operators, it screams of a broken incentive system around grid stability that seems to have had extremely significant consequences for Spain and Portugal. In this world, nuclear power is fundamentally incompatible with a world in which we seize on free liquid, atmospheric and solar resources to supply electrical energy. Nuclear is only the hero of the power grid when the price is right3. It raises the simple question: surely there’s a cheaper, more reliable way of integrating wind and solar? One that doesn’t demand a persistently high power price?

If we’re a little more cynical, I think there’s at least a chance politics played into these oddly-rationalised decisions, considering how significant the blackout will be when it comes to decisions around the future of nuclear power in Spain. Strategically witholding capacity as a tool for creating the political, media and social conditions for self-preservation isn’t unprecedented. Without suggesting at all this is what has happened here, it’s worth revisiting the Enron scandal, in which power traders withheld capacity and caused major rolling blackouts for profit. All this comparison means is that some basic questions should be asked here – but they’re not.

Which brings me to something important: why the broader energy media has failed – really, really badly – to interrogate the behaviour of nuclear on Spain’s grid. Here are some questions I think should be asked:

  • Can the operators of the Almaraz nuclear power plant provide justifications for not providing electrical energy to the grid in any detail beyond vague claims of ‘economic’ decision making?
  • How expensive does electricity need to be for “reliable” generators to actually provide reliability? Do they publish this anywhere?
  • Nuclear power plummeted to a minimum of ~2 gigawatts on the 17th of April, meaning many other plants beyond Almaraz were deactivated to a collectively unprecedented level, and Spanish nuclear had a capacity factor of 29%. Which plants? Why? Were these outages, or intentional shutdowns like Almaraz? Were they planned?
  • Was this decision process known to Spain’s grid operator? Are they factoring in nuclear power’s declared inability to generate electricity when power is cheap into their models around system strength and system security – and what alternatives exist?
  • What is the near-term outlook for Spain’s nuclear power plants? Given they’ve now operated far outside their normal bounds, how much can they be relied upon to provide energy or system strength?

Other points…

It is striking that on the day of the blackout, April 28th, solar power output was high, but not abnormally high4. It was at a share of 60% when the blackout occurred – there are hundreds of intervals, mostly in 2024, which saw a higher share of solar power among all generation types in Spain. While June hasn’t come around yet, 2024 still beats 2025 in terms of record-high solar intervals:

It is also worth noting that in the same way wind and solar generation were not abnormally high on April 28th, the Iberian Peninsula is not abnormal when it comes to high shares of variable renewable energy. This September 2024 IEA report lays out, very clearly, that other regions like the UK, Germany, Denmark, Chile, Ireland, Australia, Kyushu (Japan), Texas and California all manage varying levels of wind and solar, with varying degrees of interconnection into other regions – each with their own suite of challenges, too.

The entire report is excellent – and a demonstration that the complex challenges of grid integration were being discussed, honestly and openly, far before anything happened to Spain’s grid.

  1. Outside of COVID19, the lowest month of nuclear generation in Spain since 2015 was 3.46 GWh. By April 27th, cumulative nuclear gen in Spain was 2.7 TWh. To beat the next lowest month, it should’ve generated 0.76 GWh over three days (28th to 30th), or 0.25 GWh per day. The most it has ever generated on a single day is 0.17 TWh. So – before the blackout, Spain was destined to have its lowest ever month of nuclear power output ever – for sure. ↩︎
  2. They have too much water and need to use it to generate power, in short. Read this article for a good explanation ↩︎
  3. I should have mentioned this earlier, but Brett Christopher’s book, ‘The price is wrong‘, is a really good exploration of what cheap power actually means for privatised, profit driven markets, including the negative consequences for renewable energy operated for profit. The deeper issue here is that greedy gouging by corporations works best with large, big thermal generators and isn’t particularly compatible with smaller, distributed energy resources running off passive, non-extractive fuels. ↩︎
  4. There were a few articles about solar reaching ‘100%’ of Spain’s power in the weeks preceding: this is share of total demand so it differs materially from the data I’m using, which is share of total generation at the given moment. I don’t have interconnector flows or good demand figures, and ENTSO-E doesn’t seperate rooftop PV, utility scale PV or solar thermal, so it’s tough to do this properly. ↩︎

#5 #6

2025-04-12

March 2025 in books

March marks the start of my awards season reading for the Incomparable, which is always fun even if I don’t love all the books.

  • Murder by Memory (Dorothy Gentleman, #1) by Olivia Waite ★★★☆☆ (Read on Mar 28, 2025) – I really liked the worldbuilding in this book, but the mystery itself is pretty thin (as is the book! It is really a novella).
  • Someone You Can Build a Nest In by John Wiswell ★★☆☆☆ (Read on Mar 27, 2025) – An award nominee! I can see why it was nominated but I didn’t enjoy it. I thought the “reveals” were obvious, the characters were forced to be dumb for plot reasons, and the body horror stuff wasn’t for me (though I appreciate what the author was doing).
  • A Sorceress Comes to Call by T. Kingfisher ★★★★☆ (Read on Mar 22, 2025) – T. Kingfisher is really good at telling creepy fairy tales, and this is another one of those!
  • Jerusalem Inn (Richard Jury, #5) by Martha Grimes ★★★★★ (Read on Mar 18, 2025) – I love me a murder mystery series, and the Richard Jury series is a delight. Set during Christmas it involves a small village and a large manor house. What more do you need?
  • Intermezzo by Sally Rooney ★★★★☆ (Read on Mar 12, 2025) – Lots of people were talking about this book because it is pretty darn good. I am giving it 4 stars because it alternates the narrative between two brothers and I REALLY disliked one of the brothers. I know I’m supposed to, but sometimes an author does their job too well.
  • The Infernal Machine: A True Story of Dynamite, Terror, and the Rise of the Modern Detective by Steven Johnson ★★★☆☆ (Read on Mar 04, 2025) – This book is DYNO-MIGHT have been better, though it was enjoyable. Not his best, but an interesting story nonetheless (and it reminds you that things have always been bad!).

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