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anlomedadanlomedad@fedifreu.de
2025-11-02

Or maybe not forever?

But as long as fossil forcers are added to the atmosphere?

They used to have a warming potential of x degrees.
And that calculation was spot on when you compare Exxon's own warming projections with reality today.

But it was spot on without considering the added cooling from SO2 [over land and ocean].
So now, with SO2 going away, the fossil forcers get more power than they used to have.

Add yet more fossil forcers, and the warming rate increases compared to Exxon's calculations.

What happens when the adding of fossil forcers finally stops?

Hm. Until then, it gets hotter than Exxon predicted.
But then?
Is the lack of SO2-clouds then still an active warm-er compared to Exxon's calculations?

The oceans then still continue to take up more heat than Exxon knew.
For 2 reasons: 1) because Exxon didn't know about the SO2-clouds and the air is simply hotter than they had calculated.
2) oceans continue increased heat uptake and subsequent release for lack of clouds – increased when compared to calculations.

Grmpf. But not increasing over time anymore? NO. NOT increasing over time anymore because adding fossil forcers has stopped.

Ah, I don't know. All I know is that I doubt my old belief was true.

#climateChange
#climatefeedbacks
#atmosphere
#ocean
#cloud
#SO2

anlomedadanlomedad@fedifreu.de
2025-11-02

I have a broken logic board when it comes to lost cloud cooling from SO2 reduction.

I used to think:
you take SO2 away, and the atmosphere heats up by 0.x degrees, and afterwards, the forcings from GHG pile on that new level of achieved heat. But SO2-reduction from x Mt per year to zero is more like an event, and when zero is reached, it stops adding heat.

Now I think different and I really need help getting my head around it.

A stretch of ocean from now on is exposed to direct🌞and takes up more heat.
Every day its >layers< heat more, ie faster than before. Forever.
To me, it sounds like the recent growth rate must continue. Eg, 2023: +0.01*, 2024: +0.011, 2025: 0.012, 2026: 0.013 forever?

*dunno what the real cloud effect is. +0.01 in 2023 is only a guess for sake of the illustration.

Important with the ocean's exposure to direct sun is that it has layers. Yesterday's additional °C gets mixed down by wind and waves. But it also comes up again and re-interacts with the atmo= warms it today.

How is it with land?
When SO2 stops over hard land surface, lost cooling is a one-off and won't add °C beyond its local potential.
??? No, that can't be right.

( Over land, SO2 reduction also lets forests recover from acid rain – which increases cloud formation around "VOC", or call them tree pheromones. Over land, this new cloud formation mechanism counters the lost clouds from reduced SO2 pollution to some extent. Seen a paper somewhere saying by 40%. )

Now I think, in both environments, lost SO2 cloud-cooling is a gift that keeps on giving MORE. Not a single warming potential, but a forever growing heat addition.

Help?

#climateChange #climatefeedbacks #atmosphere #ocean #cloud #SO2

AI4PEXAi4pex
2025-04-24

🌱 What’s up with carbon sinks, wildfires & ecosystem feedbacks in a changing climate?
We’ve got you at . Models, remote sensing & field data combined.

Talks by Ilyina, Behncke, Nieradzik, Gomarasca & co. 🌍

💧🌏 Greg CocksGregCocks@techhub.social
2024-04-16

Unlocking The Mystery Of Arctic Wetlands' Methane Emissions Surge
—
scitechdaily.com/unlocking-the <-- shared technical article
--
doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-019 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #arctic #water #hydrology #methane #boreal #greenhousegases #emissions #permafrost #climatechange #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #ecosystems #temperatures #monitoring #CH4 #climatefeedbacks #instrumentation #model #modeling #greening #wetlands

aerial view - an arctic boreal wetlandphoto - an eddy covariance tower, capable of measuring the release of greenhouse gases like methanemap and chart - Significant increasing trend of wetland CH4 emissions in the Boreal–Arctic during 2002–2021.maps and charts - Temperature dominated the variability and trend of wetland CH4 emissions, and triggered the peak CH4 emissions in 2016
anlomedadanlomedad@mst.mineown.de
2023-10-23

Thinking of a theoretical CO2 removal calculation to get back down to 350ppm=1°C by year 2100. Theoretical assumptions: sinks stay as intact as today, fossil CO2 since 350ppm will stop at 1600Gt, permafrost and dried, non-rewettable wetlands add 360. 50% of all of this goes into sinks = 980Gt for removal?
No. Sinks in the net negative emission phase outgas 50% for every ton removed 💡=1470 Gt CO2 for NET by the year 2100, or 400 Gt Carbon. Where the outgassing occurs is shown in the middle row of maps in picture 3. The huge amount of removal best matches the left panel.

Regarding competition with food and biodiversity, I recall from another paper that #BECCS can sustainably remove 3Gt CO2 per year. The S for storage (or use) incurs energy needs in transport to storage or use sites.
By 2050, #Climeworks expects to suck 1Gt CO2 annually out of the atmosphere and stone-ify it in #Iceland's particular #geology.

Okay. So how much is my theoretical 1470 annually if I assume a constant removal rate from 2040ff?
-24.5 Gt CO2 per year.

Thoughts?

The screenshots are from Katarzyna B Tokarska and Kirsten Zickfeld 2015, "The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change" iopscience.iop.org/article/10.

#CarbonRemoval #CDR #NET #Climate #ClimateFeedbacks

Title and abstract of "The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change" by Katarzyna B Tokarska and Kirsten Zickfeld 2015. Link below. Highlighted is this: "During the net-negative emission phase, artificial CO2 removal is opposed by CO2 outgassing from natural carbon sinks, with the efficiency of CO2 removal—here defined as the drop in atmospheric CO2 per unit negative emission—decreasing with the total amount of negative emissions." Link: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013Supplementary table S1 and S2 from the paper. Table S1 lists names of experiments with their cumulative emissions, cumulative negative emissions, peak Gt of fossil CO2, peak year of fossil CO2, max rate of emission reductions. Judging solely from cumulative neg. emissions, simulation "VCE 250" is my closest analogue because it removes 410 GtC = 1500 Gt CO2. Table S2 lists model various simulations with their respective negative emissions and actual change in atmospheric in Gt Carbon. The scenarios# negative emissions range from 0 to -456 GtC. The atmospheric change ranges from 0 to -238GtC. Meaning: for every emitted ton that needs to be removed, half a ton more needs to be removed due to outgassing from sinks in the negative emission phase. In my posting I end up with 1470 Gt CO2 to be removed, with the outgassing already accounted for. 1470 Gt CO2 are equal to 400GtC ( divide Gt CO2 by 3.67 to get to GtC)Figure 5 and a text snippet from the paper. Link below. Figure shows 6 maps illustrating what the table columns stated regarding outgassing in the negative emission phase. The oceans outgas around Antarctica and at the El Nino 1-2 region. All land mass outgas, except the Sahara, Greenland and Antarctica. The text snippet explains why during the positive emission phase, the tropics lose their carbon sink property and become sources of CO2: because soil respirates more than photosynthesis can store. link: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013
Brian Poebrianpoe
2018-03-29

Up very early here. Does anyone in the other timezones know about our emegency?

Only a few years of sea ice left!

iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/siv_

After we lose the ice, will cause warming to accelerate dramatically. It's practically irreversible already.

If you know, how are you dealing with it? Are trying to prepare?

Brian Poebrianpoe
2018-03-28

If you have read that article and get it, please boost this post. Also, share that essay widely.

Our best chance for timely and effective adaptation lies in a rapid, grassroots spread of awareness.

When this blue line intersects this red line, we will have our first ice free September:
iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/siv_

Current estimates are 0 to 5 years. After that warming will accelerate dramatically due to .

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