🧐 Ah, the age-old conundrum: #developers guessing #timelines with the precision of a Magic 8-Ball, while product owners nod along like ancient sages contemplating the mysteries of the universe. 🔮 This riveting 11-minute read unveils the deeply philosophical truth that #estimates are indeed difficult, because... well, they're wrong most of the time. 🎯
https://thorsell.io/2025/12/07/estimates.html #productowners #philosophy #HackerNews #ngated
#estimates
Estimates are difficult for developers and product owners
https://thorsell.io/2025/12/07/estimates.html
#HackerNews #Estimates #Difficulties #Developers #ProductOwners #ProjectManagement
The planned shift of Ukrainian refugees from German citizen's income (Bürgergeld) to asylum seeker benefits is facing significant pushback from regional leaders... https://news.osna.fm/?p=25772 | #news #aid #cost #estimates #question
Have We Vastly Underestimated The Total Number Of People On Earth?
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https://www.newscientist.com/article/2472604-have-we-vastly-underestimated-the-total-number-of-people-on-earth/ <-- shared technical media article
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56906-7 <-- shared paper
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“Our estimates of rural populations have systematically underestimated the actual number of people living in these regions by at least half, researchers have claimed – with potentially huge impacts on global population levels and planning for public services. However, the findings are disputed by demographers, who say any such underestimates are unlikely to alter national or global head counts…”
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#global #spatialanalysis #model #modeling #calibration #gridded #datasets #population #globalpopulation #spatiotemporal #demographics #rural #mapping #estimates #rural #community #census #populationcount
@aaltouniversity
The escalating threat of drone incursions at airports has ignited a contentious debate, with prominent arms manufacturer Hensoldt issuing a stark warning agains... https://news.osna.fm/?p=20655 | #news #estimates #hensoldt #million #price
National Population Exposure And Evacuation Potential In The United States To Earthquake-Generated Tsunami Threats 🌊
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https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nathanwood_usgs-fema-noaa-activity-7323887631069536256-HzEi <-- shared LinkedIn post
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105511 <-- shared paper
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#model #modeling #tsunami #exposure #evacuation #hazard #exposure #risk #national #USA #coast #coastal #earthquake #marine #wave #escape #pedestrian #estimates #statistics #mitigation #cost #publicsafety #economics #damage #warning #prediction #departuredelay #nationwide #pathdistance #GIS #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #resident #riskanalysis #geomorphology #geomorphmetry
Australian woman discovers 77 half siblings, estimates hundreds more
“There will be more,” Bubke told A Current Affair this week. “The donor donated 325 times and they…
#NewsBeep #News #Headlines #77 #after #australian #calling #discovers #donation #down #estimates #half #halfsiblings #hundreds #Legislation #more #national #NewZealand #NZ #siblings #sperm #tracked #woman
https://www.newsbeep.com/103857/
Friendgineers: Continuing on why software engineering is engineering, a discussion of estimates. Yes, they're hard for software. Just like they're hard for all engineers. Just another way Software Engineering is Engineering.
A proof of concept tool to verify estimates
https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2025/05/01/a-proof-of-concept-tool-to-verify-estimates/
#HackerNews #proofOfConcept #toolVerification #estimates #HackerNews #techInnovation
1 BMO: Major #U.S. #equityindexfutures are up between 0.8% and 1.7% after #Microsoft and #Meta beat #earnings #estimates after hours. This could stretch the #S&P500 daily run to more than a week … 🧵 #markets #stocks
One of my articles from 2022.
https://irming.com/posts/estimates_and_the_fog_of_war/
#estimates #production #coding #ProjectManagement #TechDebt #MVP #scope #toxicity #communication
Real #softwredevelopment conversion from about 10 years ago
Manager: How long will this feature take to develop?
Me: 12 Days
Manager; Brian hotshot says it will take 8 days...
Me: Have his estimates been accurate in the past?
Manager: Looks at shoes….. OK 12 days
(Reader… Brian hotshot was/is an excellent person/programmer so I changed his name to protect our friendship…)
@davidshoebridge.bsky.social asked Defence about this case in #estimates. The man in question is a member of the inactive reserve pending administrative action, officials said.
The ABC says in #estimates it has spent $1.1m on legal costs for the Antoinette Lattouf case (they say they tried to settle multiple times on a commercial basis with no admission of liability)
'DisC2o-HD: Distributed causal inference with covariates shift for analyzing real-world high-dimensional data', by Jiayi Tong, Jie Hu, George Hripcsak, Yang Ning, Yong Chen.
http://jmlr.org/papers/v26/23-1254.html
#leveraging #estimates #covariate
PRODUCTHEAD: ROI is wildly imprecise / Product operating system
» With ROI, development estimates may be optimistic; revenue estimates are often more so
» Your organisation has an operating system — the way it works — even if it’s not consciously designed
#prodmgmt #development #estimates #returnOnInvestment #revenue
📖 Read more: https://imanageproducts.com/producthead-roi-is-wildly-imprecise-product-operating-system/
Now, #estimations are largely meaningless. What could we do instead?
Instead of dabbling in fortune telling (which as I said is what estimations are) we can instead decide how much time we’re willing to invest. It represents an upper boundary of time and therefore an upper boundary of how complex the solution may be. Shorter timeframe = less bells and whistles.
”ShapeUp” (a process framework by a company who shall not be named because they're tech bros, the bad kind) calls this "Appetite" but at the end of the day the name doesn’t really matter. What matters is that it’s meaningful (”this much time is what it’s worth to us”) and useful (”we can only do so much in that time”).
The problem with “Appetite” is that people aren’t used to it. It requires a change in how engineers think (and it requires them to actually think). But compared to #estimates it has at least the potential to be useful.
#SoftwareEngineering #Planning #Tech #TechLeadership #TechMyths #Bullshit
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