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💧🌏 Greg CocksGregCocks@techhub.social
2024-11-23

Earthquake Hazard Uncertainties Improved Using Precariously Balanced Rocks
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doi.org/10.1029/2020AV000182 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #geomorphometry #probabilistic #seismichazard #analysis #PSHA #groundmotion #earthquake #risk #hazard #naturalhazard #quantitative #fault #faulting #geology #engineeringgeology #empirical #balancedrocks #PBR #California #cosmogenic #10Be #dating #model #modeling #hazardmodel #probability #infrastructure #cost #economics

photo - the Golden Rock in Myanmar is a precarious boulder that has acquired religious significance and is now a major tourist attractionphoto - markers are used along with LiDAR and drones to see if the boulders move over timecharts and photos - Fragility and fragility age results for precariously balanced rock DRW1. (a) 3-D model comparison to a field photo of the most slender view of DRW1 with the measured geometric parameters required for toppling calculations, alpha (α) and radius (R), labeled. (b) PGA (x axis) and PGV/PGA (y axis) vector ground-motion probability of toppling matrix fragility results, colored from blue to yellow with increasing probability of toppling. (c) 3-D model and field photo of DRW1 looking from the toppling direction with the cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages given in ky with 1σ errors at the sample locations. (d) Probability density function (PDF) of the cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages and uncertainties of individual samples collected around DRW1 shown by green lines and aggregated probability density function shown by black line. (e) PDF of all samples collected at the site to bound the fragility age of all seven PBRs shown by red lines, and black dashed line of whole site aggregated PDF. The youngest peak (n = 6) in the aggregated PDF (solid black line and 1.65σ gray shaded area) is selected as the best estimate fragility age of the Double Rock PBRs.maps and photo - Maps of the Double Rock site in Central California. (a) Regional map showing the Double Rock site (black square) in relation to the Hosgri Fault Zone and other active faults in the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database, shown in red, that contribute to the site's seismic hazard. Population centers are shown by black triangles and site of critical infrastructure by black star. (b) Geologic and geomorphic map of the Double Rock study area (modified from Dibblee & Minch, 2006) overlain on LiDAR hillshade image. The three chert outcrops on which the fragile geologic features form are labeled, and the localities investigated in this study are numbered. Field photo inset (looking toward 140°) shows the paleo-sea stacks DRE and DRW extending above the abandoned major alluvial fan complex Qf1 and modern sea stack DRM.
💧🌏 Greg CocksGregCocks@techhub.social
2024-11-17

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview And Implications
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usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-h <-- USGS technical article
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doi.org/10.1177/87552930231215 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #earthquake #seismichazard #risk #hazard #shakemap #cost #economics #geology #engineeringgeology #hazardmodel #model #modeling #seismicity #faultruptures #groundmotions #probabilistic #probability #geostatistics #engineering #planning #management #mitigation #NSHM #forecast #infrastructure #publicsafety #hazardassessment #fault #faulting #structuralgeology #intensity #mercalli #buildingcode #design #publicpolicy #shakemap #engineeringrisk #future
@USGS @FEMA

A map from the 2018 United States Seismic Hazard Model showing highest hazard in red and lowest hazard in gray. Damage from various earthquakes around the U.S. is shown in the photographs. Larger versions of each photo can be found at: 2001 M6.8 Nisqually, Washington, 2014 M6.0 South Napa, California, 1994 M6.7 Northridge, California, 1975 M7.7 Kalapani, Hawaii, 2011 M5.8 Mineral, Virginia, and 2018 M7.1 Anchorage, Alaska.maps - The 2023 Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) hazard maps of the conterminous United States showing estimates of earthquake shaking in terms of (1) 50% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years (somewhat likely), (b) 10% PE in 50 years (uncommon), and (c) 2% PE in 50 years (rare).maps - Maps show faults, zones applied in the CEUS, and zones of ground-motion model (GMM) amplification for the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model. The inset map is a close-up view of the New Madrid seismic zone area (orange dashed boundary). Spatial boundaries include potentially induced earthquakes for the update and the previous 2018 zones, 2023 central and eastern United States (CEUS)–western United States (WUS) attenuation boundary update and 2018 boundary, WUS basins, and two areas of uniform seismicity. Fault sections for the WUS (Hatem et al., 2022a, 2022b) and for Alaska from Bender et al. (2021) are shown colored according to slip rates. Fault sections in the CEUS are not shown according to slip rates but all slip rates are less than 0.2 mm/year. The Alaska megathrust is represented by 14 segmented zones. Damaging earthquake locations are shown in all three maps. In addition, we show seismicity for Alaska (M7+) and Hawaii (M5+) (Petersen et al., 2021; Rukstales et al., 2021)....maps and charts - Normalized probability density function grids of seismicity-based earthquake rates (no fault models) are displayed for (a) the western United States (WUS), (b) the central and eastern United States (CEUS), (c) Alaska, and (d) Hawaii...
💧🌏 Greg CocksGregCocks@techhub.social
2024-08-09

A Robust Quantitative Method to Distinguish Runoff-Generated Debris Flows From Floods
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doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109768 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #numericmodeling #risk #hazard #engineeringgeology #debrisflow #hydrology #water #channel #extremeweather #flood #flooding #discharge #rainfall #hazardmodel #mitigation #wildfire #runoff #quantitive

figures/charts - Measurements of discharge and assessment of the accuracy of Q*figures/charts - Effect of assumptions and parameter uncertainty on the accuracy of Q*photo - geologists investigating a debris flow in a channel in steep, rocky, forested terrainannotated photos/schematic - Overview of methods to estimate Q*
💧🌏 Greg CocksGregCocks@techhub.social
2024-01-05

Balanced Boulders On San Andreas Fault Suggest The 'Big One' Won't Be As Destructive As Once Thought
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livescience.com/planet-earth/e <-- shared technical article
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agu.confex.com/agu/fm23/meetin <-- shared abstract
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #model #modeling #earthquake #faulting #prediction #reconstruction #dating #risk #hazard #hazardassessment #shaking #seismic #earthquakeengineering #LoveJoyButtes #hazardmodel #earthquakemodel #CA #California #geology #engineeringgeology #SanAndreasFault #SanAndreas #fault #groundmotion #history #holocene #earthquakehazard #Mojave #validation #returnperiod #magnitude #mathematicalmodeling

photo - sampling - precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) at Lovejoy Buttes, Mojave, CAphoto - precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) at Lovejoy Buttes, Mojave, CAphoto - scanning marks - precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) at Lovejoy Buttes, Mojave, CAphoto - scanning marks - precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) at Lovejoy Buttes, Mojave, CA
💧🌏 Greg CocksGregCocks@techhub.social
2023-09-28

Tree Rings Reveal A New Kind Of Earthquake Threat To The Pacific Northwest
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phys.org/news/2023-09-tree-rev <-- shared technical article
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doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh4973 <-- shared paper
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[as someone who has dove many, many times in the PNW, I am not sure I want that collection task ~wink~ ]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #PNW #earthquake #fault #faulting #paleoseismology #PacificNorthwest #treering #dating #relativedating #shallowfaults #model #modeling #naturalhazard #engineeringgeology #seismicevent #PugetSound #treeringdating #hazard #riskhazard #hazardmodel #regionalhazard #threat

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