The scientific consensus is that the current rate of #extinction of all species is between 100 and 1000 times the background rate. That is the signature of a #MassExtinction event that has already begun, in this case, the #SixthMassExtinction on this planet. That is scientific fact, not a prediction.
Whether the human race becomes extinct as a result is less certain. The #collapse of civilisation as we know it much more certain, in my view.
It is Tuesday 12th November 2024. This climbing rose is in my garden in the Midlands of the United Kingdom.
There are no red grapes from Spain in the Coop food store at the end of my road, only green ones from Brazil.
The average global temperature for 2024 is about to exceed the 1.5C limit for #GlobalWarming set in the #ParisAgreement
#CO2 levels in the atmosphere are at a record high for the time of year and not just rising, but accelerating year on year.
The current #extinction rate of all species is between 100 and 1000 times the background rate. That is the signature of a #MassExtintion, the #SixthMassExtinction in the history of this planet.
Food prices here are increasing rapidly as #climate disasters and #ExtremeWeather hit various parts of Europe, which supplies 40% of our food, whilst in the UK the potato harvest is 15% down on the norm.
Our prime minister is at the 29th meeting of nations regarding #ClimateChange, #COP29, making meaningless promises about what will be done to fix it. The head of the meeting is discussing #oil and #gas deals with delegates from the #FossilFuel industry.
The question now is not whether #CivilisationCollapse will or will not occur, but when. And what disasters will occur and in what order as the majority of the population of this planet dies of hunger.
My prediction is that by 2040 if you are not growing your own food, you will not be eating. And if you are growing your own food, then roving armed bands of hungry thugs will be trying to steal it.
Now off to said Coop to buy quiche and pasta salad for supper while I still can.
OK, fair enough, but I'm predicting the #collapse of civilisation by 2040 - hence my #Collapse2040 hashtag. Especially if the US elects a certain convicted felon today as I fear they might.
For some time now I have considered that #Climate and #Environment #Doomerism is, actually, the only realistic approach. Pretending that we are not thoroughly f*cked on multiple levels actively prevents:
1) Challenging the widespread delusion that we are doing anything near what actually needs to be done
2) Preparing for the impending societal #Collapse that will affect everyone in ways that they simply don't understand, and don't want to understand.
#CivilisationCollapse #civilisationcollapse2040 #Collapse2040 #Doomers #ClimateChange #Extinction #MassExtinction #SixthMassExtinction
@mario_angst_sci @bapeterj
Very useful! Free of charge, too. So cool! Going to use it to improve, map and quantify the inns and outs, milestones and deadlines in my project plan "Avoiding the or Timing of #CivilisationCollapse from Cascading #ClimateChange Impacts on Societies".
The deadline for the first of the essential milestones, a social-politics milestone, is the end of 2024, by the way. Because, to be finished by 2030, a global sub-project has to be conceived in 2025 and subsequently worked on, which requires that milestone to be measurably achieved beforehand.
I describe the above to now ask you: have you heard of anyone professionally mapping the factors for civilisation collapse from cc-impacts, and designing proper project planS for avoiding it?
It would be very useful. When milestones aren't achieved and not appearing to be in the pipeline to be achieved soon-ish after the original deadline, the spreading of hopeium should stop. To be replaced by a focus on post-crash climate research in #RCPcollapse or #SSP0, and for constructing fully automated containment measures for industrial toxins and radiative pollution, and for informing potential survivors on regional specifics for better preparation in small rural communities. 🙂
@Pampa Yes, it is a remote dream. I am expecting #CivilisationCollapse by 2040 and that my child and grandchild will not have a habitable planet because I too do not think the things that are needed to avoid it are going to happen. However, if I allow this dystopian view to dominate my thoughts I will be so depressed that I will not be able to enjoy the rest of my life, so, I do what I can to reduce the damage and prepare for the worst.
I am, therefore, what is known as an #OptimisticDoomer, as opposed to an out and out #Doomer who has simply given up in face of the overwhelming evidence of the #overshoot of #PlanetaryLimits and so Planetary #CarryingCapacity.
Thanks for the reference to the Circularity Gap report 2023. Looks really useful. https://www.circularity-gap.world/2023
And it's accelerating! I'm sticking to my prediction of #CivilisationCollapse by 2040.
What do I mean by civilisation #Collapse? I mean that if you are not growing your own food (if you can given the variability of the weather), you will not be eating.
#FossilFuel use is going up, not down.
#CarbonDioxide #CO2 in the atmosphere is accelerating, not levelling off or going down
#Methane #CH4 in the atmosphere is going up, not down
#NitrousOxide in the atmosphere is going up, not down.
#Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #Collapse
#TippingPoints #Overshoot #EcologicalOvershoot #CivilisationCollapse
From luxury bunkers to tactical vehicles, the ultra-rich are preparing for the Big One
Builders of fortified homes say inquiries and applications are up in recent years
"Their extreme wealth and privilege served only to make them obsessed with insulating themselves from the very real and present danger of #ClimateChange, rising #SeaLevels, mass #migration, global #pandemics, nativist panic and #ResourceDepletion. For them, the future of technology is about only one thing: escape from the rest of us."
#Collapse #CivilisationCollapse #Overshoot #ClimateCrisis
https://www.cbc.ca/news/billionaire-bunkers-doomsday-1.7130152
I agree entirely. I do, however, think that we will have a serious problem with food that will be very hard to ignore, Food prices will go through the roof as climate change impacts agriculture even more than it is already doing, in this country as well as in others (40% of our food is imported).
No doubt politicians/right wing media will find externals to blame - the wars in foreign countries (we're already blaming Putin and Ukraine) - for rising wholesale food prices, instead of the adverse and variable weather that is destroying agricultural productivity.
I just hope that people will listen to their local farming communities when they explain what the problem is. My prediction is that if you are not growing your own food in 2040 you won't be eating.
#Collapse #EnvironmentalCollapse #Climate #ClimateChange #Agriculture #CivilisationCollapse #CivilisationCollapse2040 #EcologicalOvershoot #EcologicalCollapse
Alan Urban: The Collapse Will Be Normalized
As #civilization collapses, the media will attempt to normalize things like #war, #famine, and #genocide. Don't let them.
While it’s too late to prevent #ClimateBreakdown and the #collapse of civilization, it’s not too late to prevent more violence and brutality like what we’re witnessing in #Gaza and many other places around the world.
Keep protesting. Keep resisting. Keep standing up for what’s right, no matter how much it hurts.
#CivilisationCollapse #CivilisationCollapse2040 #ClimateChange #EcologicalOvershoot #EcologicalCollapse
https://www.collapsemusings.com/the-collapse-will-be-normalized/
Bill McGuire: Labour's Green U-Turn Has Left Me Feeling Hopeless
#KeirStarmer should think long and hard about the consequences
On the very day that the 1.5ºC dangerous climate change guardrail is smashed - for the first time - over the course of twelve months, the #labour party announces it is ditching its £28 billion #GreenInvestment pledge, claiming the country can't afford it. The reality is, however, that we can't afford not to do this.
Furthermore, using the excuse that the country can't afford it is simply nonsensical. At least two recent studies show that continued business as usual sets us firmly on course towards economic and societal #collapse, perhaps a soon as 2040.
#Climate #ClimateChange #CivilisationCollapse #CivilisationCollapse2040 #Overshoot #SocietalCollapse
https://billmcguire.substack.com/p/labours-green-u-turn-has-left-me
#GlobalHeating is accelerating because #CO2 concentrations are accelerating because CO2 #Emissions are rising, not going down.
#Climate #ClimateChange #Collapse #CivilisationCollapse #CivilisationCollapse2040 #Extinction #MassExtinction #SixthMassExtinction
From looking at these graphs does it look like anyone is doing anything to reduce #GreenhouseGases and the #GlobalHeating that results?
Nope! Not in the slightest.
#Climate #ClimateChange #Collapse #Overhoot #CivilisationCollapse
I put what I call #PeakCivilisation at the 2008 #FinancialCrisis, but the year 2000 #DotComCrash is another possibility. Some put it as early as the 1973 #OilCrisis. Everything past the peak is on the falling side of the curve.
Another financial crisis is coming for sure. Predicting exactly when it will hit is hard but I'm betting sooner rather than later. I'm also betting that higher inflation and increasing cost of living aren't going to go away, just get worse.
#Collapse #CivilisationCollapse #Overshoot #EcologicalOvershoot
Those figures deliberately ignore #methane #emissions from all sorts of sources.
The current rate of #extinction of all species is between 100 and 1000 times the background rate. That is the signature of a #MassExtinction. The #SixthMassExtinction has already started.
#Collapse #CivilisationCollapse #Climate #ClimateChange #Overshoot
This is just completely delusional:
'Despite #ClimateChange, Today Is the Best Time to Be Born'
'Economic growth will ensure an abundant future.'
What part of "You can't have continuous growth on a finite planet" do you not understand? We have already overshot earth's carrying capacity in many ways.
#Climate #Collapse #CivilisationCollapse #Overshoot #EcologicalOvershoot
It's not the migration that's causing the world to #collapse, yer prat Donald, it's #CivilisationCollapse that's causing the #Migration! Derrrr!
Donald Tusk: "But believe me - and I say this also looking at what is happening in the USA today - it is a question of the overall survival of our Western civilization. Or we will wake up and understand that we must protect our territory, our borders, that if we are open to all forms of migration without any control, our world will actually collapse." (Translation by Google from Polish)
'So with the writing so clearly on the wall we’re headed for #extinction - why do we not act ?'
This book explains it well, even though written in 1982:
#Overshoot by William R. Catton Jr.
Biggest thing I got from it so far is that we have evolved to respond to immediate threats (there's a sabre toothed tiger over there!) rather than long term threats that we tend to ignore, even though logic tells us we will die eventually if we don't respond.
(Yes, I expect sabre tooth tigers were extinct before humans arrived, haven't checked, but just for illustration)
