Intersection Of Human Environmental Solutions and Impacts
The fundamental question of whether humanity’s environmental solutions will overtake and halt its environmental destruction in time to preserve human civilization is the subject of intense scientific debate. An analysis of peer-reviewed research on climate change and its effects on human civilization suggests that while positive developments in technology and policy may prevent the absolute worst-case warming scenarios, they are unlikely to be deployed fast enough to avoid irreversible damage to key global ecosystems. The “intersection” will occur, but after some critical tipping points have been crossed.
I approached this issue in: “Adapting to Worst-Case Climate Change” and “Silent Earth, Adaptations for Life in a Devastated biosphere.” This blog post is a more balanced review of optimism due to positive developments and pessimism due to negative impacts. Last week I added Kindle versions of my books. Enrolled in Amazon’s Free Book promotion, they are free starting today with “Adapting. . . .”
The Acceleration of Solutions: A Techno-Economic Revolution
The case for optimism rests on the exponential growth of clean technologies, driven by powerful economic feedback loops.
- Economic Tipping Points: The most significant positive trend is that renewable energy sources are now, in many parts of the world, the cheapest form of new electricity generation available. This has created a powerful economic momentum for decarbonization that is less dependent on political will. A study by Way et al. (2022) in the journal Joule found that a rapid transition to clean energy is likely to result in trillions of dollars in net savings globally compared to a fossil-fuel-based system.
- Exponential Growth & S-Curves: The deployment of key technologies like solar, wind, and batteries is not linear but follows an exponential adoption “S-curve”. BloombergNEF (2023) data shows that solar and wind now account for most new power-generating capacity added globally each year. Similarly, global EV sales have doubled every two years, a trend that, if sustained, could lead to a near-total transition away from internal combustion engines for new car sales by the early 2030s.
- Policy as an Accelerator: While political will is fickle, major policy actions can create long-term industrial momentum. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the E.U.’s Green Deal are not just climate policies, but massive industrial strategies designed to onshore clean energy manufacturing and secure a competitive advantage. These initiatives will accelerate decarbonization pathways in the world’s largest economies, though this will be retarded by the U. S. counter moves in 2025.
The Acceleration of Impacts: The Unyielding Physics of the Earth System
The case for pessimism is grounded in the physical realities of the Earth system, which possesses immense inertia and potential for non-linear dynamics.
- Climate System Inertia and “Locked-In” Warming: The central challenge is the inertia of the climate system. Even if global emissions were to cease today, the planet would continue to warm because of past emissions and the thermal inertia of the oceans. This has been referred to as “warming in the pipeline” (Hansen et al. 2023). A significant amount of future sea-level rise and ecosystem injury is already “locked in,” regardless of our current actions.
- Irreversible Tipping Points: The greatest risk is that this locked-in warming will push critical Earth systems past irreversible tipping points. A landmark 2022 study in Science by Armstrong McKay et al. found that several key tipping points, including the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the abrupt thaw of permafrost, could be triggered even between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming—thresholds we are on track to cross. The recent die-off of vast areas of coral reefs serves as a stark example of a major ecosystem already crossing this threshold.
- Cascading Risks and Synchronous Failures: These tipping points are not independent. The collapse of one system can increase the risk of another failing, creating a “tipping cascade” (Kemp et al. 2022). For example, losing Arctic sea ice reduces albedo and accelerates regional warming, which hastens the thaw of permafrost. Recent research highlights the growing risk of “synchronous failure,” where climate-related shocks trigger simultaneous crises in multiple interconnected systems, including global food supply chains and financial markets. In their exhaustive study of tipping points, Vasilis Dakos and colleagues concluded that the vast amount of remote sensing and other Earth systems data are bringing us closer to the ability to anticipate tipping points. At present, “Early warnings can tell us that “something” important may be about to happen, but they do not tell us what precisely that “something” may be and when exactly it will happen” (. . . , Dakos et al. 2024).
The Verdict: An Intersection After Irreparable Damage
When comparing these two accelerating trends, the scientific literature points to a deeply unsettling conclusion. The positive socio-economic trends of the clean energy transition are powerful, but they are unlikely to move quickly enough to prevent the biophysical trendlines of climate impact from crossing critical, irreversible thresholds. The most likely outcome is a future where humanity successfully reduces the impacts of its farms and cities and decarbonizes its energy and transportation systems, but only after locking in the collapse of several major ecosystems. We will prevent the 4-5°C “runaway greenhouse” scenario, but we will not prevent the loss of all coral reefs and mountain glaciers, loss of some major ice sheets, and significant, permanent loss of significant portions of the biosphere. The “intersection” will not be a moment of salvation, but a point at which we can adapt to a world that has been irreparably damaged. If humanity’s effort to survive is sufficient, civilization will survive, but in a suppressed state that will persist while the earth cools and cleans itself and Earth’s biosphere heals.
Bibliography
Alber, J., et al. 2021. The Apocalyptic Dimensions of Climate Change between the Disciplines. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110730203-001.
Armstrong McKay, D. I., et al. (2022). “Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.” Science, 377(6611), eabn7950.
BloombergNEF. (2023). New Energy Outlook 2023. Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Claes, D. H., & Pineda, L. G. (2023). “The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the new logic of climate and energy policy.” Energy Strategy Reviews, 50, 101258.
Dakos, V. et al. (2024). Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems. Earth System Dynamics 15: 1117-1135.
Hansen, J., et al. (2023). “Global warming in the pipeline.” Oxford Open Climate Change, 3(1), kgad008.
Homer-Dixon, T., et al. (2015). “Synchronous failure: The emerging causal architecture of global crisis.” Ecology and Society, 20(3).
Hughes, T. P., et al. (2018). “Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages.” Nature, 556(7702), 492-496.
IEA. (2023). World Energy Outlook 2023. International Energy Agency.
IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Kemp, L., et al. (2022). “Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(34), e2108146119.
Rogers, G. 2024. Adapting to Worst-Case Climate Change. Coldwater Press, Humboldt, AZ. 99 p.
Rogers, G. 2025. Silent Earth: Adaptations for Life in a Devastated Biosphere. Coldwater Press, Humboldt, AZ. 452 p.
Seba, T. (2020). Rethinking Humanity: Five Foundational Sector Disruptions, the Lifecycle of Civilizations, and the Coming Age of Freedom. RethinkX. https://www.rethinkx.com/publications/rethinkinghumanity2020.en [Accessed 06/09/25]
Steel, D., et al. 2022. Climate change and the threat to civilization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(42), e2210525119.
Way, R., et al. (2022). “Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition.” Joule, 6(9), 1967-1971.
#biodiversity #ClimateChange #extinction #globalWarming