@roewoe1

Dieser Artikel? "Monsun setzt Indiens Metropolen zu"
https://orf.at/stories/3395670/
Der ist aber wirklich sehr gut. Finde ich.

Deine Vermutung, dass der starke Regen im Mai in Mumbai und wohl bis runter nach Bangalor dem Klimawandel geschuldet wäre, muss nicht stimmen.

Bangalore hat diesen Mai tatsächlich die höchste monatliche Regensumme seit Aufzeichnungsbeginn 1901 gehabt: 569.7mm
Von Mumbai hab ich keine Daten.
Da Mai ja eigentlich noch gar nicht zum Monsoon gehört, ist das besonders herausragend.

Aber.
Da es keinen Trend gibt, dem Mai 2025 bloß eine Krone aufgesetzt hätte, muss man wohl auch woanders nach Gründen gucken. Und da bietet sich die Vulkanexplosion #HungaTonga im Januar 2022 an, deren Injektion von Wasserdampf in die Stratosphäre nämlich noch immer ihr Unwesen treibt.
Jucker et al 2024 haben das für Temperatur und Regen modelliert https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/17/JCLI-D-23-0437.1.xml
Die Autoren haben auch einen Prosa-Artikel geschrieben: https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-new-study-shows-231074

Die Veränderung im Regen rund um Indien ist für die Jahre 2025-2029 für Juni-August als eine der drei stärksten Veränderungen global modelliert worden.
Ich zähle Mai 2025 zu den Monaten Juni-August – und hab meine Erklärung für diese herausragende Regensumme in Bangalore. Klimawandel nicht nötig.

@GhostOnTheHalfShell @Su_G @petergleick

Word!
Remember after #HungaTonga in January 2022? When some cli-sci said, the effect of the water vapour in the stratosphere on global climate would be negligible?
Negligible my ass.
England and Northern Germany drowned in winter 2023 and again 2024. And again in January 2025. Including winter crops. Due to HungaTonga.
Negligible my ass.
Central and Northern Europe has its driest spring ever this year since records began. Happy sowing season in dust! Happy pollination without water for insects! Due to HungaTonga.

Jucker et al 2024 shows this as "significant" European deviation from the 2005-2021 average.

Oh, but global average temperature only gained a temporary 0.03°C from HungaTonga, so what...
These types of cli-sci really don't get WHY they're doing what they do.

And the fact that these types of cli-sci who have net zero instinct for impacts on society, are so prominent in the public makes it even worse.

1) Das lodernde Sauerland hatte diesen Feb+März nur 15% des üblichen Regens, Rekord seit 1888. Im trockenen Wald breitet Feuer sich fix aus. Nasser Wald brennt nicht.
2) Kumulatives Feuer-CO2 basiert auf Hitzebeobachtung per Satellit: So heiß wie bis 15.April brannte es bisher frühestens bis 17.Juni!
Dass es nicht geregnet hat, muss aber nicht am Klimawandel liegen. Man sieht ja auch, dass es in den frühen Stationsjahren am Kahlen Asten durchaus mal vorkam.

3) Verdächtig ist eher HungaTonga!👇
Der Wasserdampf, den #HungaTonga in die Stratosphäre brachte, treibt dort noch immer sein Unwesen.
Für März bis Mai im Jahr 3 bis 7 nach der Explosion haben Jucker et al 2024 nämlich zB signifikant weniger Regen für Deutschland und Polen dadurch ausgemacht.

Falls es Klimawandel-bedingt von Februar-15.April zu warm war, wäre auch der Dampfhunger der Luft größer u hätte Pflanzen u Boden zusätzlich für den Brandstifter 🚬🔥vorgetrocknet. Das hab ich jetzt aber nicht geguckt.

Data In Action: The 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha′Apai Eruption - Altimetry Data And Models Help Us Understand How A Volcanic Eruption Generated A Tsunami
--
https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/DataAction-2025-03-20-The-2022-Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Haapai-eruption-Altimetry-data-and-models-help-us-understand-how-a-volcanic-eruption-generated-a-tsunami <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01694-z <-- shared paper
--
https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/dataset/JASON_CS_S6A_L2_ALT_LR_RED_OST_NTC_F08 <-- shared NASA dataset - Sentinel-6A MF Jason-CS L2 P4 Altimeter Low Resolution (LR) NTC Reduced Ocean Surface Topography F08
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #earthobservation #remotesensing #fedscience #tonga #HungaTonga #HungaHaApai #eruption #volcanic #volcano #Pacific #marine #geology #engineeringgeology #risk #hazard #satellite #altimetry #data #model #model #spatialanalysis #Tsunami #risk #hazard #monitoring #coast #coastal #naturalhazard #Sentinel #sealevel #warning #earlywarning
@nasa

Forschende untersuchen mit der Messkampagne #ASCCI den Einfluss von #Ozon und #Wasserdampf auf den arktischen #Klimawandel.

Das #Forschungsflugzeug #HALO misst Spurenstoffe in der #Stratosphäre, um Prozesse wie den #Ozonabbau und die Auswirkungen des #HungaTonga-Ausbruchs zu analysieren.

Die Ergebnisse helfen, klimatische Veränderungen besser zu verstehen und #Satellitenmissionen wie #CAIRT vorzubereiten.

https://www.kit.edu/kit/pi_2025_018_flugzeugkampagne-klimawandel-in-der-arktis.php

#Arktis #Klimaforschung #Atmosphäre #Luftschadstoffe #KIT

Satellite Detection Of A Massive Phytoplankton Bloom Following The 2022 Submarine Eruption Of The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai Volcano
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099293 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #phytoplankton #bloom #remotesensing #satellite #Tonga #volcanic #volcano #submarine #eruption #ocean #marine #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #HungaTongaHungaHaapai #HungaTonga #Tongatapu #nutrients #ash #volcanicash #caldera #imagery

Volcanic Ash As A Source Of Nutrients - How The Hunga Tonga Eruption Affected Ecosystems In The South Pacific
--
https://phys.org/news/2024-11-volcanic-ash-source-nutrients-hunga.html <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52904-3 <-- shared paper
--
[it’s like a multivitamin for phytoplankton!]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #eruption #volcano #volcanic #HungaTonga #Tonga #phytoplankton #ash #debris #sediment #GEOTRACES #GP21 #biogeochemistry #nutrients #foodweb #SouthPacificGyre #spatialanalysis #model #modeling #spatiotemporal #sampling #volcanicash #simulation #HYSPLIT #atmosphere #dispersion #traceelements #ecosystem #deposition #seawater #waterquality #chlorophyll #SouthPacific #remotesensing

Auslöser der Tonga-Eruption gefunden? Stärkster Vulkanausbruch der letzten Jahrzehnte begann an einer kleinen Schwächezone. #Tonga #Vulkanausbruch #HungaTonga #Vulkan #Unterseevulkan #Eruption
https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/ausloeser-der-tonga-eruption-gefunden/

A Seismic Precursor 15 Min Before The Giant Eruption Of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano On 15 January 2022
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111144 <-- shared paper
--
"KEY POINTS:
• The volcano generated Rayleigh waves about 15 min before the giant eruption with no apparent surface activity
• These waves dominated in 0.03–0.1 Hz with amplitudes comparable to the amplitude of M4.9
• Seismic stations 750 km from the volcano and appropriate data analyses allowed [them] to capture precursors of the catastrophic eruption..."
#geology #seismology #tonga #volcano #eruption #vulcanism #HungaTonga #RayleighWave #earthquake #precursor #remotesensing #imagery #satellite #HTHH #model #modeling #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #caldera #seismicstation #monitoring #naturalhazard #naturaldisaster #risk #hazard #engineeringgeology

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/climate-change-glacier-volcanoes/

Cool webstory by Reuters about future Iceland's and global volcanic eruptions to be triggered by retreating glaciers, when the weight of the ice is no longer keeping a lid on magma chambers.
Apart from neat writing, it's with video, lotsa photos, animated charts and everything one can think of to be included in #scicomm

tldr: yes, volcanic eruptions will increase with the retreat of glaciers. #Antarctica's volcanos too. #Earthquake activity has already been picking up in Iceland since 2021, also elsewhere in the #Arctic near glaciers, and around the globe.

It has happened before when Earth crawled out of the last #iceage into the #Holocene.

I might add: it happened not only at volcanos near glaciers. Rising #sealevel has triggered near-coastal volcanos, too, whether above or below the water. IIRC, a study on Stromboli proved it.

I personally think, #HungaTonga's eruption could have been one of the first submarine volcanos to have been triggered by #climateChange Another submarine volcano erupted near Japan in 2021 or 2022, forgot its name, starts with an O...
Not as huge an explosion like Hunga Tonga tho.

#paleoclimate #volcano #Iceland #volcanism #glacier

@Global_Repercussions @PaulWermer @dan613

Wrt #Hungatonga and the past 13 months: Jucker et al mapped the multi-year effect of the water vapour on precipitation, temperature and jet stream in a detailed global grid.

Their layman's prose article says specifically that according to their results HungaTonga is no factor at all in the bananas phenomenon.
https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-new-study-shows-231074

Obviously the past months pique everyone's curiosity and I see no reason why we should not speculate wildly what the reasons might be. We are The Society. The science law does not fall into our jurisdiction, so to speak. That people like Rahmstorf don't speculate if they can't back it up with sciency looking stuff – that's fine. I'd rather people like him not speculating without a sliver of attempted proof.
But this rule doesn't apply to us, The Society.

The land carbon sink net collapsed in 2023. A station in Australia Cape Grim https://capegrim.csiro.au received the signal in January 2024ff. Later than other stations due to delay in atmospheric mixing.

El Nino is a CO2-intense phase. One can sync the CO2 growth rate in the Cape Grim time series to, for example, the ElNino phase 2016 by moving the monthly growth values 8 months back. This sort of helps to triangulate the CO2 sources that arrive in Cape Grim during El Nino phases. Having done that, one sees that last year's Nino CO2 source arrived at Cape Grim earlier than the signals in other Nino years. This points to a CO2-origin that is close by in terms of atmospheric mixing. Close by = in the Southern Hemisphere.

So. The drought in the Amazon? Something like intensified ocean upwelling?
Or... was the mixing stronger and quicker this time than in 2016 or 1997?

This week's Featured Links post has links to articles about how the summer COVID surges in the US and Canada say about our long-term future with the disease, a near disaster on a Shuttle mission in 1999, and a new study that disputes Hunga Tonga volcano's role in 2023–24 global warm-up.

https://coredump3.blogspot.com/2024/07/featured-links-july-29-2024.html

#Books, #OctaviaButler, #COVID19, #History, #Science, #SFF, #Space, #Volcanos #HungaTonga #ClimateChange

#HungaTonga was on the top of my list of suspects for the bananas year 2023. #Jucker et al's preprint on modelling the effect on #weather was my go-to for months. It has been peer-reviewed and published by now 🔒 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-23-0437.1/JCLI-D-23-0437.1.xml
or : https://d197for5662m48.cloudfront.net/documents/publicationstatus/180012/preprint_pdf/ebd8969efba54570a5944dadba59168c.pdf

It just now occurred to me: their model comparison only flags *significant* changes over a planet without water injection into the #stratosphere. And what's more: in year1 after the eruption, which is 2023, only the jet stream showed significant changes. Not temperature. This realisation kinda proves to me that HungaTonga wasn't significant at all wrt temperature in 2023.

Wanting to double-check my realisation with the author on Twix, I found instead his tweet with his writeup in TheConversation💃 https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-new-study-shows-231074

" This means that the incredibly high temperatures we have measured for about a year now cannot be attributed to the Hunga Tonga eruption." 💃

But like I suspected: the ultra-wet winter with damages in infrastructure, soil and crops in Western Europe was due to HungaTonga by way of its effect on the #jetstream.

And it will be repeated: "For the northern half of Australia, our model predicts colder and wetter than usual winters up to about 2029. For North America, it predicts warmer than usual winters, while for Scandinavia, it again predicts colder than usual winters."

... One more thing::::
Sadly, the #Arctic in year 3 to year 7 is modelled to warm by 0.5°C due to HungaTonga. Put that on top of the potentially permanent bananas heating in 2023 and 2024... then sea ice will shrink, albedo lost, fresh water dilute the AMOC, polar bears lose their cups.

And the temperature gradient between Arctic and equator will be less.
Which probably leads to stalling jetstream wave patterns. Stalling wave patterns spell heat and drought (and crazy omega blockings with heavy rain events). All of which makes crop loss likely in the bread baskets USA, Europe, Ukraine, Russia.
Like in 2018. But 5 years in a row...
OMG...fck

Könnte die ungewöhnlich regenreiche Witterung der letzten Monate einen hintergründigen Zusammenhang mit Frankenstein, Byrons "Darkness" oder Polidoris "Vampir", kurz: dem Jahr ohne Sommer bzw. vulkanischen Winter 1816 haben? Eine vorläufige, trotzdem differenzierende Antwort wird hier versucht:
https://www.vulkane.net/blogmobil/hunga-tonga-haapai-eruption-beeinflusst-klima/

#jahrohnesommer #hungatonga #maryshelley #lordbyron

Good piece on the #HungaTonga eruption and it's (tiny to non-existent) impact on our climate from @andrewdessler .
I think my biggest takeaway from the attribution work is that (some) people will do almost anything to avoid accepting human emissions are driving climate change. https://open.substack.com/pub/theclimatebrink/p/the-real-lesson-of-the-hunga-tonga

The Department of Earth-Shattering Kabooms is open for business, but with some unavoidable delays after this #HungaTonga #volcano Sunday Morning Volcano post. https://flighttowonder.com/2024/05/05/dept-of-earth-shattering-kabooms-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai

Obviously, I now must investigate if 1994-1995 and 2016-2017 were in other ways similar to 2023-2024. My favourite culprit would be #HungaTonga – because it's treated as such an underdog in the 2023 discussion that I simply MUST side with that volcanic explosion.😁 (Really, how can they dismiss it? The explosion was HEARD in Alaska, 6000km away... !! Just because as submarine volcano it didn't emit much SO2? That's speci-ist!😁)

August-2016 was preceded by two VEI-4 eruptions in 2015 April and May. That's 17 months between eruptions and the 12 months freak growth rate in North Atlantic 35-50°N. Much like HungaTonga's 18 months between January 2022 and freak 2023-June.
Esp. in light of the sad fact that the #volcano database lists the start date of the eruptions, not the date of an eventual explosion. Eg, HungaTonga in the database has a start date in December 2021 but the VEI-5 explosion occurred mid January 2022. https://volcano.si.edu/search_eruption.cfm Who knows when the explosions in 2015 actually occurred. (Sad!)

Browsing the longer periods of strong growth rates and looking at number of eruptions and VEI4-6 explosions, I see a pattern emerge: immediately after many eruptions or strong explosions, growth rate of SST in the North Atlantic, Center and East longitudes, is negative for a while. But approximately 12 to 18 months after the major volcanic activity, growth rate jumps up and stays high for a few months.

1995 was preceded by 2 VEI-5 explosions in 1991, #Pinatubo in June and another 2 months later. Or let's say what the database really states: 2 volcanos started erupting in April and August 1991 and eventually exploded in a VEI-5. When the explosions occurred I can only tell for Pinatubo: in June. The August eruption might have exploded in 1993 for all we know.
Anyway, so there also was a volcanic match for the strong 1995-1996 growth rate period. Tho, it was very long ago. But that was due to so much SO2 in the system that it cooled the planet for 2 years. And only in 1995, the heating resumed with force, strengthened by an El Nino.

So yeah. As far as I am concerned, the mystery of the gobsmacking bananas 2023 > in the North #Atlantic < is solved. The SO2 reduction from #shipping by the "voluntary regulation" from #IMO is not THE culprit, or the major shipping routes in my rectangle would have behaved differently 2022 - 2023 than other "normal freak occurrences".
I'd have to analyse North Pacific the same way to increase my certainty. But I'm just a layperson, no scientific stringency required. I'll leave it to others. or do it some other #FridaysForFuture day if I feel like it.

Attached are screenshots of the chronological time series from April 1986 to March 2006 and from April 2004 to 2024-March like described in the previous toot. Now with three new columns: "volcanic eruptions", "VEI4-6" and "VEI5-6".

@MichaelEMann @guardian

(3/3)

#ClimateCrisis hits

...plausible causes of the anomaly – the #ElNiño effect, reductions in cooling sulphur dioxide particles due to #pollution controls, fallout from the January 2022 #HungaTonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption in #Tonga, and the ramping up of solar activity in the run-up to a predicted solar maximum..."

//

@dderigo
Thank you for posting excerpts from Gavin Schmidt's article.

Isn't it a bit incoherent tho that he a) states that the weirdness set in several months before El Nino raised his head, and then b) expresses the hope that the weirdness might end with El Nino's end?

Also, I have a logic problem with Hunga-Tonga's alleged small global impact from stratospheric water vapour, and another problem regarding the voluntary SO2 reduction by the shipping industry. The latter is supposed to have come into "voluntary force" in 2020. Why would it have taken 24 months to have SUCH a sudden and noticeable effect on SST?
Hunga-Tonga's allegedly neglect-able, tiny impact on global weather is also odd. That water vapour is said to change wind strength in 300hPa (preprint Jucker et al 2023). Change in wind strength over flat ocean areas..., and with far-reaching effects. That East-Antarctic heatwave and atmospheric river in March 2022 for example originated in tropical storm activity (new paper from this year, forgot by whom) – activity which I say, maybe got triggered by #Hungatonga 's H2O injection. Greenland also had a heatwave at the very same time. Teleconnection?
The water vapour hadn't even reached either latitudes yet at that time. But the freshwater amount from both melt events is still in the system and doing its thing.
Ah well.
I don't like how that eruption is seen as neglect-able by minds which look at global averages and seem to have no feeling how seemingly regional changes echo through the whole system.