#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #satellite #collision #cascade #space #CarringtonEvent #RiskAnalysis #CRASHclock
Apocalypse bingo 16. February 2026... Who has the satellites?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuVO...
Satellite Collision in Low-Ear...
#RiskAnalysis
#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #satellite #collision #cascade #space #CarringtonEvent #RiskAnalysis #CRASHclock
Apocalypse bingo 16. February 2026... Who has the satellites?
Thousands of studies describe Rayleigh–Taylor instability, and most hydrogeological models acknowledge its importance in contaminant transport.
However, in studies of the Svystunova gully mine-water storage pond, I have not seen density explicitly accounted for — despite highly mineralized waters where this factor can fundamentally change plume behaviour.
By calculating solution density within the contamination halo, I demonstrated a real risk of gravity-driven sinking of the contamination plume to the base of the aquifer. This finding adds a critical dimension to impact assessment and is now documented as a standalone section in my ongoing report.
If you work with mine water, aquifers contamination, or long-term contamination modelling, this is a parameter worth revisiting.
#Hydrogeochemistry #Groundwater #MineWater #PHREEQC #RStats #QGIS #EnvironmentalRisk #Contamination #RiskAnalysis #SvystunovaGully
8/8 📉 The Verdict
The "LA Drone Plot" was the magician's left hand.
The "Fires" are the red flag.
The trick is happening at the Port of Rotterdam.
The math is probabilistic, not prophetic. But with a
P
=
0.98
P=0.98
, I am looking at the harbor, not the church ruins.
Stay safe. Watch the headlines below the fold.
#Geopolitics #MachineLearning #RiskAnalysis #Amsterdam #StaySafe
8/8
History is a stochastic process.
Right now, the probabilities are tilting the wrong way.
Stay safe. Watch the headlines below the fold.
#MachineLearning #Geopolitics #Amsterdam #CransMontana #RiskAnalysis
6/🧵Concluding this #2026predictions thread with additional background. Here is a link to my 2023 long-format essay on global risks and threats identification generated for Green Econometrics. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis https://docs.google.com/document/d/1v8rIvD8kS8uQRtHEq3b1qz4JNUodRgNh/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=117879364199236598894&rtpof=true&sd=true
5/🧵My #2026predictions are based on my ongoing research begun in 2022 for Green Econometrics. Here is my long-format essay on the subject of global risk and threat analysis generated in 2022. I got some things wrong of course, the stock market is at an all time high currently (probably artificially due to the AI exuberance), seeming to discount and under value the emergent and obvious headwinds. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #ThreatIntel
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E1zs1ysahaovmgphhV_6nShZuNcIKnsgPqGM1u5oHEg/edit?usp=drivesdk
4/🧵3rd risk I’d add to my growing list of #2026predictions is around failed states, and the geopolitical, cultural and conflict disruptions they could easily cause. To wit, Iran and Pakistan are both hovering perilously close to the brink of state failure. Pakistan is nuclear-armed, and Iran is nuclear-ready (even after US and Israeli strikes). Both face seemingly unsolvable financial, energy, food and water crises currently unfolding; not to mention the threats both countries face from internal unrest driven by oppressed minorities seeking autonomy or statehood. in South America, several countries are perpetually on the brink of failure. Venezuela and Cuba come to mind. Likewise in #MENA and sub-Saharan Africa, states like Sudan and Yemen are currently collapsing. A few west African military dictatorships are also suspect. Failed states mean mass migrations, the spread of disease, the collapse of infrastructure and agriculture - resulting in regional disruptions and global risk. #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis
3/🧵2nd risk I see relates to a rapid acceleration of #GlobalWarming and the #ClimateCrisis - In this potential risk scenario, melting glaciers and polar ice sheets accelerate #SeaLevelRise while simultaneously creating flood then drought cycles in geographic regions that depend on glacier melt to annually replenish critical rivers and waterways. Ground water depletion (as is happening in Iran and the #MiddleEast in general right now) exacerbates the situation and prompts #WaterWars and mass migrations that strain regional borders and geopolitics. Parts of Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the American South become virtually uninhabitable due to heat-related issues. Agriculture fails and the global food supply is threatened. In another #Climate related risk scenario, the AMOC overturns - thrusting much of Europe into a mini ice-age, disrupting agriculture, industry and public health. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #GeoPolitics
2/🧵Now I’ll be presumptuous enough to add some looming *potential* risks and threats facing us in 2026 and beyond. These are my concerns…
1. China’s deflation, driven my the ongoing property collapse and construction company defaults; high youth unemployment; unsustainable personal and local government debt; declining consumer consumption, and a demographic collapse will roil the country leading to unrest. The Chinese Communist Party and chairman Xi respond by invading Taiwan to distract the population and appeal to nationalism to restore unity. This brings the USA and Japan into the what will be called the war of the South China Sea. When the Russians enter the fray on the Chinese side, the conflict becomes WWIII and the Chinese break out their multi-warhead hypersonic nukes to bring an end to the conflict. This results in a global nuclear conflagration that sweeps the planet. #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #War #China
THE FRIDAY READ
15 Scenarios That Could Stun the World in 2026
Futurists, political analysts and other forecasters on the possible “Black Swan” events of the new year.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/01/02/black-swan-events-2026-00708074 #2026predictions #NewYear2026 #RiskAnalysis #USPol #AI
A quotation from Terry Pratchett
And Sergeant Colon once again knew a secret about bravery. It was arguably a kind of enhanced cowardice — the knowledge that while death may await you if you advance it will be a picnic compared to the certain living hell that awaits should you retreat.
Terry Pratchett (1948-2015) English author
Discworld No. 21, Jingo (1988)
More about this quote: wist.info/pratchett-terry/8091…
#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #terrypratchett #discworld #alternatives #bravery #costbenefit #courage #cowardice #danger #death #informeddecision #punishment #retreat #riskanalysis #riskassessment
Nationwide Study Reveals Escalating Flood Risk [New Zealand]
--
https://niwa.co.nz/news/nationwide-study-reveals-escalating-flood-risk <-- shared technical article
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https://niwa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/8c1db2b8e37841f29a57a38675388897 <-- web map / modelled representation, Flood hazard across Aotearoa New Zealand
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https://data.niwa.co.nz/products/100-year-flood-maps <-- shared flood hazard datasets for New Zealand flood plains (by region), Earth Sciences New Zealand
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https://youtu.be/FR0sl5eP0VY?si=FPASnvUT6VSFwpGA <-- overview, 2005 New Zealand flash floods
--
"New research from #EarthSciencesNewZealand reveals just how widespread flood risk is across the country with more than 750,000 New Zealanders currently living in areas exposed to one-in-100-year rainfall flooding. That number could rise to 900,000 with three degrees of warming..."
#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #ClimateAdaptation #climatechange #weather #rainfall #precipitation #Resilience #Insurance #Sustainability #science #research #flood #flooding #model #modeling #NewZealand #risk #hazard #riskanalysis #cost #economics #damage #infrastructure #residential #insurance
RT by @KyivIndependent: 1 week to go! 🚨 We’re just 7 days away from our next KI Insights Monthly Briefing — “Battlefield Update: Ukraine’s Frontline Situation Ahead of Winter”.
🗓 Date: Thursday, 13 November 2025 🕓 Time: 16:30 Kyiv / 15:30 Brussels / 14:30 London / 09:30 Washington D.C. 📍 Format: Online (in English). A presentation and a candid Q&A session. Featuring special guest: Rob Lee — sharing insights from his recent trip to Ukraine’s frontline, as well as expert analysis.
This briefing is ideal for diplomats, analysts and investors seeking timely and tactical intelligence on Ukraine’s evolving security environment and its broader implications. As winter approaches, understanding the dynamics on the ground is more important than ever.
🔹 Register here: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/3717615777099/WN_f26SfXNyR4u2r5_Y28qFIg 🔹 Event access is exclusive to KI Insights subscribers (not the same as Kyiv Independent membership). 🔹 Not yet a subscriber? Join today at http://insights.kyivindependent.com — first month free. 🔹 Please note: We carry out vetting prior to granting access for security and confidentiality reasons.
Don’t miss this opportunity to equip your organisation with the intelligence edge needed for the Ukraine context. Sign up now and add the briefing to your calendar!
#Ukraine #UkraineAnalysis #RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineSecurity #KIInsights #SecurityOutlook #EasternEurope #Geopolitics #DefenseIndustry #RiskAnalysis #BusinessInUkraine #InvestmentInUkraine
🐦🔗: https://nitter.oksocial.net/KI_Insight/status/1986465881011200330#m
[2025/11/06 16:09]
Cyber Alert
🏴☠️ Over 200GB of leaked client data
🏴☠️ Few million of unique customer records: names, emails, dates of birth
All the components needed for highly effective spear-phishing and social engineering attacks have been leaked on the dark web.
Read more: https://outpost24.com/blog/salesforce-breach-qantas-vietnam-airlines/
#CyberAlert #Cybersecurity #IdentityTheft #Phishing #RiskAnalysis
Credit markets look increasingly dangerous
#HackerNews #CreditMarkets #DangerFinance #Economics #RiskAnalysis
Flood Hydrology Roadmap [UK]
--
https://www.gov.uk/flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-research-reports/flood-hydrology-roadmap <-- shared technical details
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https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/62335ac2e90e070a54e18185/FRS18196_Flood_hydrology_roadmap_-_report.pdf <-- shared roadmap as a PDF
--
https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.053 <-- shared paper
--
#water #hydrology #flood flooding risk hazard roadmap UK Britain cost #economics #publicsafety #publichealth #extremeweather #government #program #policy #mitigation #fluvial #floodhydrology #actionplan #England #Wales #Scotland #NorthernIreland #engineering #fluvial #pluvial #sewers #groundwater #reservoir #research #logistics #methods #operations #data #spatial #GIS #mapping #management #partnership #collaboration #regulations #interagency #riskmanagement #riskanalysis #practice #design #systems #landuse #change #climatechange
"Uncertainty can be overwhelming! Did you know that only 12% of Black Swan events are predicted by experts? Let's work together to navigate the Perfect Storms and make informed decisions. #RiskAnalysis"
"Delving into the world of risk analysis! From Kaplan & Garrick's pioneering work on quantifying risk to Paté-Cornell's insights on "Black Swans" and "Perfect Storms", this knowledge base covers it all. Whether you're interested in decision making under ambiguity, financial markets, or the impact of weather on COVID-19 spread, this compact resource has got you covered. #RiskAnalysis"
Read more: https://skstavroglou.github.io/morpheus-ai/mastodon/2025/09/25/comprehensive-risk-analysis-knowledge-base.html
Client Info
Server: https://mastodon.social
Version: 2025.07
Repository: https://github.com/cyevgeniy/lmst