21. #AI4PEX research focus 9: Coupling.
We will couple, tune and evaluate the new #ML-enhanced component models of the land, ocean and atmosphere to #ESMs as more realistic component models are the first step towards improved projections of the future #EarthSystem.
"We will soon see the majority of the Planetary Health Check parameters in the high-risk zone,” Johan Rockström
Earth exceeds safe limits: First Planetary Health Check issues red alert
“When we look at the trends of Earth’s health indicators, we see that soon the majority of them will be in the high-risk zone. We need to reverse this trend. We know that all Planetary Boundary processes act together and each one needs protection to protect the whole system.”
>>
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/earth-exceed-safe-limits-first-planetary-health-check-issues-red-alert
#EarthSystem #GlobalCommons #GlobalBoundaries #ESBs #PlanetaryHealth #SafePlace #harm #risks #safety #justice #extractivism #resources #IndigenousKnowledge #stewardship #FossilFuels #coal #limits #transformation #transition
The Global Commons: The Safe and Just Space is shrinking
"The planet will only remain able to provide even a basic standard of living for everyone in the future if economic systems and technologies are dramatically transformed and critical resources are more fairly used, managed and shared."
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https://earthcommission.org/news/new-research-reveals-paths-to-prosperity-for-planet-and-people-if-earths-critical-resources-are-better-shared/
Earth-system boundaries - reducing harm to people and the planet
"The health of the planet and its people are at risk. The deterioration of the global commons—ie, the natural systems that support life on Earth—is exacerbating energy, food, and water insecurity, and increasing the risk of disease, disaster, displacement, and conflict. In this Commission, we quantify safe and just Earth-system boundaries (ESBs) and assess minimum access to natural resources required for human dignity and to enable escape from poverty. Collectively, these describe a safe and just corridor that is essential to ensuring sustainable and resilient human and planetary health and thriving in the Anthropocene. We then discuss the need for translation of ESBs across scales to inform science-based targets for action by key actors (and the challenges in doing so), and conclude by identifying the system transformations necessary to bring about a safe and just future."
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Gupta J, et al. A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health-Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. Lancet Planet Health. 2024 Sep 10:S2542-5196(24)00042-1.
doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00042-1
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext
#Earth #EarthSystem #GlobalCommons #GlobalBoundaries #ESBs #PlanetaryHealth #SafePlace #harm #destruction #extractivism #limits #safety #justice #transformation #transition #FossilFuels
Three particular responses of the #EarthSystem are critically important for our understanding of #ClimateChange, but remain highly uncertain:
(I) The change in #GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperature for a doubling of atmospheric #CO2, which determines the long-term warming of the Earth.
(II) The rate at which excess heat is sequestered into the deep ocean.
(III) The fraction of #carbonemissions that remains in the atmosphere, which is controlled by the efficacy of ocean and terrestrial #CarbonUptake.
Safe And Just Earth System Boundaries
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8 <-- shared paper
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H/T @RebelGeo
[personal plea – do not use Gall-Peters Projection for your publication’s global maps 😊 ]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #earthsystemboundaries #ESB #global #humanimpacts #foodsecurity #watersecurity #sustainability #climatechange #resilience #earthsystem #holistic #interdependent #quantitative #model #modeling #literaturesearch #risk #hazard #climate #water #hydrology #agriculture #biosphere #ecosystems #aerosols #pollution #harmreduction #socialjustice #boundaries #safeguarding
#CallforProposals within the Priority Programme #HALO for projects (up to 3 years duration) starting 2025. The #aircraft enables #earthsystem and atmospheric research on a high international level. Submit proposals for an upcoming misson by 17 May 2024.
More ➡️https://www.dfg.de/de/aktuelles/neuigkeiten-themen/info-wissenschaft/2024/ifr-24-13
During the 2023 American Geophysical Union Annual Fall Meeting University of #Vermont based Abigail Rec told us that while thawing #permafrost will have an affect on how the #EarthSystem functions, there's no need to be fearful.
#EnvironmentalScience #SciComm #AGU23 #ArcticScience
Groundwater is vital to the health of our planet: An international study classifies #groundwater as a keystone #ecosystem and proposes ways to improve its protection to preserve #biodiversity and mitigate #ClimateChange // #EarthSystem
Groundwater is vital to the health of our planet: An international study classifies #groundwater as a keystone #ecosystem and proposes ways to improve its protection to preserve #biodiversity and mitigate #ClimateChange // #EarthSystem
1,500 people have viewed/downloaded the #preprint of "CAMELS-Chem: Augmenting CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and #Meteorology for Large-sample Studies) with Atmospheric and Stream Water #Chemistry Data" since March 2022.
Several Cluster members are among the collaborators on this paper which is now set for publication in @EuroGeosciences #Hydrology and #EarthSystem Sciences journal.
Read the preprint here: https://bit.ly/48AS3rU
Scientists Combine Climate Models For More Accurate Projections
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https://phys.org/news/2023-11-scientists-combine-climate-accurate.html <-- shared technical article
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01009-8 <-- shared paper
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This new method provides a framework for how to best understand a collection of climate models. The model weights included in this research informed the Fifth National Climate Assessment, a report released on Nov. 14 that gauges the impacts of climate change in the United States. This project also supports the Earth System Grid Federation, an international collaboration led in the U.S. by DOE that manages and provides access to climate models and observed data…”
#GIS #spatial #mapping #climatechange #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #numericmodeling #global #statistics #weighting #bayesian #modelaverging #climatesensivity #climatemodels #projection #ECS #earthsystem #ORNL
New ideas to strengthen #SDGs are in demand. Researchers at CDE, IISD and SEI are conducting a joint #survey on this. The knowledge gathered will be presented on 25 Oct 2023 at the #EarthSystem #Governance #conference at the Radboud University.
Participate now👉https://ww2.unipark.de/uc/2030PLUS/
The #Earth Exploration Toolbook is made available for #K12 teachers from the The Science #Education Resource Center at Carleton College.
"Each activity, or chapter, introduces one or more scientific data sets and analysis tools that enables users to explore some aspect of the #EarthSystem."
As Latin American #EarthSystem scientists, we face several challenges from #inequality problems due to the under-representation of different groups to the lack of or limited funding opportunities.
:OpenAccess: Read our paper on these issues and how we plan to tackle them.
:laecess: #Introduction #LAECESS
We are a group early-career #EarthSystem scientists from #LatinAmerica and the Caribbean.
Our main goals are
Read more about us here.
We just finished the #GlobalCarbonBudget workshop. Three intensive days (online for me) of learning new research insights on #CarbonSinks, land and ocean carbon cycle, #CDR, methodologies to track #carbon in the #EarthSystem, atmospheric inversions, carbon cycle predictions.
This, initially a purely academic project, is building profile and reaching out to wider audiences.
Thanks to organizers @pfriedling Pep Canadell and everyone involved!
@abastos @jhauck @chrisd_jones https://globalcarbonbudget.org
We have crossed seven of eight planetary boundaries defining a safe operating space for humanity. These boundaries include climate change, biodiversity loss, land-system change and biogeochemical cycles. Crossing them could trigger irreversible and catastrophic changes to the Earth system.
Safe and just Earth system boundaries
The preservation of at least 20 - 25% diverse habitat in each square kilometre in human-modified lands is required to maintain the functional integrity of human-modified ecosystems and the terrestrial benefits humans get from nature – such as pollination and water quality regulation.
At least 50 - 60% of natural ecosystem area, both terrestrial and marine (up to 80%) must be maintained to minimize harm to future generations, thus highlighting the need for restoration of natural areas.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8
#Nature #Ecosystems #WildLands #Restoration #Pollination #WaterQuality #Oceans #Biodiveristy #Habitat #EarthSystem
Glad to see this paper out from The Earth Commission proposing new quantifications for #EarthSystemBoundaries that are both Safe & Just, for which I've been working on the climate and nutrient boundaries.
Safe and just Earth system boundaries
"#Nature study quantifies "planetary boundaries" for aerosol pollution, fresh water, nutrient cycles, #biodiversity, land use and #climate, beyond which the planet is longer "safe and just" for humans."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-06-01/health-report-card-for-the-planet-science-boundaries/102405754
“These rapid changes to the Earth system undermine critical life-support systems with significant societal impacts already felt and they could lead to triggering #TippingPoints that irreversibly destabilize the #Earth system...These changes are mostly driven by social and economic systems run on #unsustainable resource #extraction and #consumption."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8
#Stability #EarthSystem #EarthSystemBoundaries #Limits #Growth #OutOfControl #ESBs #Interdependencies #PlanetaryBoundaries #Destabilising #Planet #Extractivism #Risks #MetabolismWithNature #SafeAndJust
