Lmst

Nature-Based Solutions As Building Blocks For Coastal Flood Risk Reduction - A Model-Based Ecosystem Service Assessment
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-95230-4 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #naturebased #naturebasedsolutions #NbS #flood #flooding #model #modeling #ecosystem #assessment #floodrisk #risk #hazard #climatechange #adaption #extremeweather #stormsurge #mitigation #metrics #quantitative #hydrogeomorphic #geomorphology #geomorphometry #ecohydromorphodynamic #modular #habitat #storm #sealevelrise #SLT #Sicily #coast #coastal #barriers #mangrove #vegetation

New Zealand's Major Cities Are Sinking
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/lauriewinkless/2025/04/16/new-zealands-major-cities-are-sinking/ <-- shared media article
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https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2025.2470435 <-- shared paper
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https://www.searise.nz/ <-- linked to NZ SeaRise project page
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https://searise.takiwa.co/map/6233f47872b8190018373db9/embed <-- NZ SeaRise web map
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #NewZealand #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #impacts #humanimpacts #land #subsidence #sinking #population #growth #risk #hazard #global #GMSL #coast #coastal #planning #management #mitigation #extremeweather #climatechange #cost #economics #infrastructure #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #remotesensing #earthobservation #sentinel #InSAR #urban #city #cities #reclamation #cut #fill #Holocene #engineeringgeology #kiwi #k1w1 #NZ #stormsurge

HT @btschumy
And this is why we need to #RethinkNotRestart and #ShutDownAllNuclearPlants -- especially the aging ones! This article outlines a very possible #Doomsday scenario -- but it could be a number of things, including a large #SolarFlare...

2030 Doomsday Scenario: The Great #Nuclear Collapse

A timeline of the #EndGame for human civilization

"Humanity has constructed a doomsday Deadman switch that threatens civilization. Climate destruction will make it increasingly difficult to avoid the looming global nuclear catastrophe we've created.

"Here's how our future might unravel:
Late 2020s: Climate Red Alert and Infrastructure Strain

"By the late 2020s, Earth’s climate is in unprecedented turmoil. Global average temperatures are consistently 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Each year brings record-breaking heatwaves, “freak” floods, and droughts that batter infrastructure. Coastal cities flood more frequently, roads buckle in extreme heat, and power grids strain under surging demand for cooling.

"This cascade of climate disasters sets the stage for a systemic collapse: as societies grapple with runaway warming, the resilience of #Criticalnfrastructure (power, water, transit) erodes.

"Energy systems enter a crisis even before 2030. Nuclear power, which in 2025 still provided about 9% of the world’s electricity from ~440 reactors, becomes increasingly unreliable. Many nuclear plants struggle with climate stresses: cooling water sources heat up in summer, forcing reactors to reduce output or shut down to avoid unsafe temperatures. For example, a 2028 European #heatwave pushes river and sea temperatures above 25 °C, triggering emergency shutdowns at multiple reactors that cannot be cooled effectively.

"At the same time, stronger storms and floods threaten reactor safety. Dozens of reactors worldwide are unprepared for #ExtremeFlooding, meaning a dam failure or #StormSurge could lead to a Fukushima-scale accident. Worrisome reports emerge of power plants in #floodplains and #coasts where defenses are overtopped by #RisingSeas and torrential rains.

"By 2029, global carbon output remains high, and natural feedback loops are kicking in. In the Arctic, permafrost thaws and releases methane creating a vicious warming cycle where initial warming triggers more emissions, leading to even more warming. Scientists caution that a tipping point is near, beyond which climate change becomes self-perpetuating (a true “runaway” scenario).

"Society approaches 2030 in a precarious state: aware of looming catastrophe yet unprepared for its speed. The stage is set for the coming collapse, with power grids and nuclear facilities - the backbone of the industrial world - already under severe strain.

Early 2030s: Blackouts and the First Reactor Crises

"2030 marks the breaking point.

"A confluence of climate catastrophes collapses power grids across multiple continents. A severe global heatwave in the summer of 2030 brings record electricity demand while many power plants (nuclear and coal alike) are derated or offline due to overheating coolant water.

"Then powerful Category 5 storms strike in succession: one hurricane inundates the U.S. Eastern seaboard, while an unprecedented typhoon swamps Southeast Asia. These #disasters knock out transmission lines and flood key substations, leading to prolonged blackouts in dozens of major cities. Emergency systems are overwhelmed. With communications down and transportation paralyzed, manpower shortages become acute - many operators and engineers cannot reach their stations.

"Nuclear power plants are among the first to feel the emergency. Grid failure triggers automatic reactor SCRAMs (rapid shutdowns) at plants from Florida to France. Control rods halt the fission reactions, but decay heat in reactor cores still needs cooling for days to prevent meltdown.

"Normally, backup diesel generators would power the cooling pumps, but the scale of the #blackout means diesel resupply is uncertain and some generators fail in flooded facilities. In a grim reflection of 2011’s Fukushima disaster, several coastal reactors lose all power as storm surges drown their backup generators.

"Within hours to days, the first meltdowns occur.

"In 2031, a reactor in South Asia becomes a flashpoint: its cooling pumps falter after the grid collapse, leading the core to overheat. The reactor’s heart melts through containment in a matter of days, releasing a plume of radioactive steam and debris.

"Nearby, an even greater danger unfolds: the plant’s spent fuel pool, packed with years of highly radioactive spent rods, boils dry without cooling. Exposed to air, the zirconium cladding of the fuel ignites, triggering a fire that belches long-lived radioisotopes directly into the atmosphere. This nightmare scenario - once narrowly avoided at #Fukushima by heroic ad-hoc measures - now plays out in full."

#NoNukes #RenewablesNow #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #Radiation #NuclearMeltdowns #Polycrisis #NoMoreFukushimas #NoNukesForAI #CivilizationCollapse #NuclearFuture #ARadioactiveWorld

Observations Reveal Changing Coastal Storm Extremes Around The United States
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02315-z <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #extremeweather #coast #coastal #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #communities #publicsafety #climatechange #stormsurge #USA #flood #flooding #risk #hazard #damage #infrastructure #cost #economics #mitigation #insurance #sealevel #SLR #sealevelrise #Bayesian #hierarchical #framework #tideguage #tide #tidal #water #hydrology #hydrography #extremes #intensity #monitoring

Animation of the storm surge associated with the storm currently moving across Eastern Canada.

#storm #stormsurge #canada #weather #wx

Fischauktionshalle / Hamburg during storm surge

#hamburg #stormsurge #germany #elbe #photography

... nach der #Sturmflut

#leuchtturm #elbe #fotografie #photography #lighthouse #afterthestorm #stormsurge #weather #wetter

The photo shows a picturesque coastal scene under a dramatic sky. A prominent red and white striped lighthouse stands on a jetty in the water. A ship is sailing past the lighthouse. The Wadden Sea stretches out into the distance, with the tide receding to reveal a large expanse of wet sand. The sky is a mix of blue and dark grey clouds, suggesting a possible storm approaching. Overall, the photo evokes a sense of tranquility and awe at the power of nature.

Changes In Store For Atmospheric Rivers [California and PNW, USA and Canada]
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https://yubanet.com/scitech/changes-in-store-for-atmospheric-rivers/ <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01774-0 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #meteorology #weather #climatechange #warming #WestCoast #USA #California #PNW #PacificNorthWest #Canada #atmosphericriver #extremeweather #risk #hazard #model #modeling #spatiotemporal #precipitation #snowpack #rainfall #ocean #atmosphere #risk #hazard #flood #flooding #storm #stormsurge #regional
#NCAR @NCAR

A powerful cyclone fed by a so-called atmospheric river off the U.S. West Coast pictured by a weather satellite. (Image credit: CIRA)

maps - Comparing high versus standard resolution CESM:
a) Snapshot of Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) during an AR, simulated using the fully-coupled CESM1.3 model with 0.25° atmosphere and 0.1° ocean resolution (representative of ARs in this simulation). Regional areas described in this study are defined by the coastal locations where landfalling ARs occur, including Southern California (red circles), California (green circles, and Pacific Northwest (blue circles)
b) Snapshot of IWV during an AR simulated in CESM1.3 with 0.25° atmosphere and ~1° ocean resolution (representative of ARs in this simulation)
c) Daily mean sea surface temperature corresponding to (a)
d) Daily mean sea surface temperature corresponding to (b).

Infographic -The science behind atmospheric rivers (NOAA)

A storm darkens the sky at the mouth of the Russian River, north of Bodega Bay, Calif. The storm was driven largely by an "atmospheric river" over California. (Image credit: NOAA)

What Exactly Is The [NOAA] Sea Level Calculator And Why Would You Want To Use It?
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https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/sea-level-calculator.html <-- link to tool
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“It allows you to:
👉 Understand sea level change scenarios and visualize potential impacts on a map
👉 Explore water level and flood frequency trends
👉 See the top 10 flood events for your location
👉 Determine what time of the year your community is most likely to experience a flood..”
#GIS #spatial #mapping #digitalcoast #coast #coastal #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #climatechange #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #waterlevel #flooding #flood #stormsurge #risk #hazard #planning #management #subsidence #model #modeling #tool #resource
@NOAA

Will We Be Able To Continue Living By The Sea? Ocean Experts Explore Considerations For Governments
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https://phys.org/news/2024-11-sea-ocean-experts-explore-considerations.html <-- shared technical article
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https://www.marineboard.eu/navigating-future-vi <-- shared Navigating the Future VI – The Role Of The Ocean
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #climate #climatechange #coast #coastal #model #modeling #sea #risk #hazard #ocean #sealevel #sealevelrise #planning #management #mitigation #COP29 #NFVI #watersecurity #foodsecurity #publichealth #publicsafety #weather #extremeweather #subsidence #stormsurge #hydrospatial #coastalcommunities

cover - report - Navigating The Future VI - Placing The Ocean Within The Wider Earth System

graphic - Ocean & People - working together to manage our ocean interactions

graphic - Ocean & Climate - an ocean that is no longer impacted by climate change

Coastal Retreat In Alaska Is Accelerating Because Of Compound Climate Impacts
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https://phys.org/news/2024-12-coastal-retreat-alaska-compound-climate.html <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2409411121 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #coast #coastal #retreat #erosion #Alaska #climatechange #sealevel #sealevelrise #stormsurge #extremeweather #permafrost #melting #landloss #remotesensing #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #Arctic #ArcticCoastalPlain #ACP #ice #communities #infrastructure #planning #management #change #acclerating #topography #subsidence #risk #hazard #impacts #resilience #mitigation #funding

maps and (example) photos - Variability of Arctic ground ice, shoreline change, and sea level. (A) Ground ice and shoreline data are from the ACD database (15). Sea-level change rates (2020 to 2100 mean) are for the IPCC-AR6’s mid-level emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) (16, 17). (B) Erosion undercuts an Iñupiaq cabin, Elson Lagoon, Alaska. (C) Cabin-sized permafrost blocks collapse into the Beaufort Sea, Drew Point. (D) Seawater drowns ice-wedge polygonal tundra, Ikpikpuk Delta, Alaska. (E) Storm threatens infrastructure, Utqiagvik, Alaska. (F) Marine flooding degrades permafrost, Point Lonely, Alaska...

schematic - factors in permafrost melting and associated coastal changes such as erosion

photo - crumbling blocks of permafrost along the Beaufort Coast

maps - Evolution of the Teshekpuk Lake region in the 21st century. Black boxes in the Bottom panel denote Arctic Coastal Plain subregions in which analysis was performed. Inset maps indicate 2050 and 2100 time slices for erosion (Left), erosion plus sea-level rise (center), and erosion plus sea-level rise plus permafrost subsidence (Right). Colormap denotes topography; light blue is ocean. Projections from a mid-range emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) are shown.

Projections Of Multiple Climate-Related Coastal Hazards For The US Southeast Atlantic
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02180-2 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #coast #coastal #water #hydrology #risk #hazard #VLM #VerticalLandMotion #SeaLevel #SealLevelRise #SLR #climatechange #extremeweather #US #USA #SoutheastAtlantic #Atlantic #storm #stormsurge #erosion #groundwater #flood #flooding #subsidence #society #societal #cost #infrastructure #economics #saltwater #property #value #beaches #saltwaterintrusion

maps and charts - projected shoreline change

maps - Coastal hazard exposure across the study area

Dahil sa Bagyong #PepitoPH, nagbabala ang PAGASA sa posibilidad ng storm surge o daluyong ng bagyo. Alamin ang mga dapat gawin bago, habang, at pagkatapos ng storm surge.

#StormSurge
#BMPM

#TropicalStormSara to unleash life-threatening #flooding in #CentralAmerica

Tropical Storm Sara will bring an extreme risk to lives and property in Central America where feet of rain may fall before tracking toward #Florida next week.

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Nov 14, 2024

"Rain may pour down for days on the northern parts of #Nicaragua and #Honduras before shifting to eastern parts of #Guatemala, #Belize and southeastern #Mexico this weekend.

"A general 8-12 inches (20-30 cm) will fall in this zone, but a large pocket of 12-18 inches (30-45 cm) of rain is forecast from northern Honduras and Nicaragua, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 50 inches (127 cm).

"'This amount of rain will trigger major #FlashFlooding and #mudslides with the potential for catastrophic loss of life and tremendous damage,' AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warned.

"Some communities could be cut off for days due to washed-out roads and bridges or blocked by debris flows. Demands for rescue and recovery efforts, as well as food and medical supplies, will be great in the wake of the storm in the region.

"Because of Sara's proximity to the #Caribbean for several days, it will likely not unwind fully. As a result, winds, waves and #StormSurge will blast the coast of #Honduras, eastern #Guatemala, #Belize and Mexico's #Yucatan Peninsula. Sporadic #PowerOutages are likely due to #StrongWinds."

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tropical-storm-sara-to-unleash-life-threatening-flooding-in-central-america/1713878

#CentralAmericaWx #ExtremeWx
#ExtremeRains #ExtremeWeather #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis
#ClimateCatastrophe

@rolle
I've got to say, I saw this on TV when they aired it locally, and it's a great graphic.

It really explains to the people living in those areas how dangerous the #StormSurge we are talking about can get, because so many of them want to stay behind and try to mitigate damage as it happens or something, and we keep trying to impress upon them that the best you can do is put your valuables in high places or in your car as part of your prep, and drive out of there. This only happens in the couple miles closest to the water, so you only need to go like a couple miles inland to get away from this.

When I lived near the coast, I evacuated three times, and it was basically just driving to a friend's house for the night. The third time ended up being two nights because it was #Hurricane Ian and that one was over us for like 24 hours, and when I got back, the house had had a foot of water in it and all the cars on the street had been destroyed by #flooding.

You know what's a cool #SolarPunk concept we are moving toward in real life? Living #coastal defense structures. Restored #oyster #reefs that could offer self-rejuvenating protections for the ever-worsening #stormsurge (while also improving water quality).
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.13390

Hypothesized effect on wave attenuation for oyster reef living shorelines that are designed for oysters (a) or waves (b). It is expected that wave attenuation will improve over time with the accretion of oysters under appropriate environmental conditions. In contrast, reefs that are not designed to maximize oyster colonization will have a design life akin to traditional breakwaters.

📢📢 STAY TUNED 📢📢urricane Milton Tampa General Hospital Prepares with AquaFence Barrier
Link 👇🏻👇🏻
https://www.daemon7.com/2024/10/10/hurricane-milton-tampa-general-hospital-prepares-with-aquafence-barrier/

#hurricanemilton2024 #tampa #tampaflorida #tampahurricane2024
#HurricaneMilton #FloridaHurricane #MiltonFlorida #HurricaneWarning #StormSurge #FloridaWeather #fyp #usnews #hurricaneupdate #usa_tiktok #usanews #us #HurricaneSeason #TropicalStormMilton #FloridaStorm #NorthCarolina #Carolina #tampa #miami #hurricaneseason2024 #hurricanecategory #hurricanecategory3 #Floridanews

Hurricane Milton made landfall Wednesday evening and continues to devastate Florida.

Sarasota had a gust of 102 mph before the weather station went down, and there is a Flash Flood Emergency with 10-14 inches of rain having already fallen, and that doesn't take storm surge into account.

#hurricane #milton #hurricanemilton #rain #wind #tornado #stormsurge #flood #flooding #florida #flwx

Major flooding now occurring in Naples, Florida due to storm surge associated with #Hurricane #milton

#stormsurge #flooding

Source: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/cidstorm.html?stormname=Milton

#stormSurge

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